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The Atlantic Politics & Policy Daily: The Space Force Awakens

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Written by Madeleine Carlisle (@maddiecarlisle2), Olivia Paschal (@oliviacpaschal), and Elaine Godfrey (@elainejgodfrey)


Today in 5 Lines

  • In a speech at the Pentagon, Vice President Mike Pence detailed the administration’s plan to establish a Space Force by 2020.

  • Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach’s lead over Governor Jeff Colyers in the state’s gubernatorial primary was cut nearly in half after officials discovered an error in the vote count.

  • The Puerto Rican government acknowledged in a report filed to Congress that Hurricane Maria killed more than 1,400 people, far more than the official count of 64.

  • President Trump held a roundtable on prison reform with governors, state attorneys general, and Cabinet officials at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey.

  • In day eight of Paul Manafort’s trial, prosecutors returned to his bank-fraud charges, questioning witnesses about discrepancies in his mortgage applications.


Today on The Atlantic

  • Rules for Life?: Caitlin Flanagan writes about Jordan Peterson’s popularity, and why it worries many activists on the left.

  • Workers of the World: Missouri’s labor victory on Tuesday can’t reverse the decreasing power of unions across America. (Vauhini Vara)

  • A Speedy Trial: Here’s why Paul Manafort’s trial is moving so quickly. (Russell Berman)

  • For Love of Country: Conor Friedersdorf reacts to Fox News commentator Laura Ingraham’s comments that “in some parts of the country, it does seem like the America that we know and love doesn’t exist anymore.”

  • A Little Late: On Wednesday, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russia for a chemical attack that occurred five months ago. Why now? (Yasmeen Serhan)


Snapshot

First Lady Melania Trump’s parents, Viktor and Amalija Knavs, listen as their attorney makes a statement in New York. A lawyer for the Knavs says the Slovenian couple took the citizenship oath on Thursday; they had been living in the United States as permanent residents. (Seth Wenig / Associated Press)

What We’re Reading

Whose Jurisdiction?: Like most of his potential colleagues on the Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh is no expert on Indian law—which means the current Court’s reluctance to recognize tribal jurisdiction is likely to continue, writes Anna V. Smith. (High Country News)

‘I Will Fight Back’: In 2016, Rashida Tlaib was thrown out of a Trump rally. Now, she’s poised to be the first Muslim woman ever elected to Congress. (John Nichols, The Nation)

Breaking the News: The Trump administration’s tariffs on Canadian imports have caused one local newspaper to shut down. More could follow. (Catie Edmondson and Jaclyn Peiser, The New York Times)

The Union Establishment: In elections across the country, trade unions are backing establishment candidates instead of their more progressive counterparts. Why? (Aída Chávez and Ryan Grim, The Intercept)


Visualized

Coming to a District Near You: Several state-level elections could significantly change the power balance in Congress for the foreseeable future. Here’s where they are. (Brittany Renee Mayes and Kevin Urmacher, The Washington Post)

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Digital Advertising Upends Formula For How Political Parties Pick Winners And Losers

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AdExchanger Politics” is a recurring feature that tracks developments in politics and digital advertising. 

Today’s column is written by Ray Kingman, CEO at Semcasting.

Political parties and their leadership pick winners and losers – when they legislate and, especially, in how they allocate resources to candidates running for office.

The idea of picking winners and losers through spending isn’t without precedent. On the eve of the 2016 election, the conventional wisdom was that Donald Trump would lose badly. Three weeks before Election Day, Politico reported that the Republican National Committee had spent zero dollars on television ads.

In the 2018 midterms, the formula for deciding winners and losers could be based on a different dynamic due to the polarization within the parties and the ways in which digital communication is democratizing the campaign process for more candidates.

With as many as four or five “parties” seemingly in play in this election cycle, how do party loyalty and the candidate’s flavor of ideology affect fundraising and on-the-ground support from the national parties?

For example, the challenge for the GOP seeking to retain control of the House and Senate is determining which GOP “party” they are going to back – the traditional Republican establishment, Tea Party Freedom Caucus members or the Trump-ites? On the Democrat side, will national support go toward traditional Democrats, the Bernie Bros or those on the far left?

Traditionally, the national parties and Congressional leadership direct a significant portion of fundraising and determine the races worth contesting. These groups historically throw resources behind candidates that allow them to buy prime-time television advertising and, more importantly, fully fund get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts in local districts.

However, many candidates in 2018 are taking the Citizen’s United ruling to heart by raising significant war chests and building campaign infrastructures independent of their party.

The GOP outraised the Democrats by a wide margin in 2017, but that advantage has all but disappeared. A record number of emergent state, local and congressional candidates are running for the first time on the Democratic Party side. Many younger candidates and female candidates are stepping up and breaking records for enthusiasm and fundraising.

In the second fundraising quarter of 2018, 50 of these House Democratic candidates outraised Republican incumbents, with 21 of them raising more than $1 million. In open races with no incumbent, the Democratic candidates have outraised the GOP in 25 of the 30 races.

Part of a 2018 candidate’s go-it-alone strategy is based on the fact that voters are more inclined to consume information digitally. Some 43% of adults get their news online, and that trend is accelerating, according to a 2017 Pew Research study.

Through social, display and mobile devices, candidates have more refined tools for reaching the voters they want to reach. Instead of wasting half of their campaign dollars on TV to reach everyone in a designated market area or ZIP code, candidates have increasingly bought into digital. Borrell Associates forecasts digital at 22% of political spend for 2018. At an estimated $1.9 billion, this is a 2,539% increase in digital since 2014, while broadcast television spend is forecast at $3.3 billion, a drop of 30% for the same period.

Increased polarization is a driving factor in pushing campaign managers to be very precise about their ad buys. They limit their targeting to the constituents that they align with and who they feel are persuadable on specific issues. Programmatic targeting at the individual voter level helps candidates reach the intended audience with display, social and especially streaming video on mobile and connected TV.

While spending on social media is actually forecast to decline slightly from 2016 because of Facebook’s controversies, mobile and streaming video are expected to more than make up for it. Compared to the same quarter last year, the audience for video delivered over the internet is experiencing astronomical growth across movies, episodic TV shows and linear television. EMarketer forecasts that 22 million people will have cut the cord on cable, satellite or telco TV service – up 62% from 16.7 million in 2016.

A threefold increase in mobile and connected TV streaming services also aligns with major increases in engagement from urban and millennial voters – a traditional stronghold of Democrats.

While institutional and PAC monies from both sides will come into play in the final two months to support the party favorites that have the best chance of winning, those bets will be placed to protect parties that most voters see as divided.

Fortunately, candidates who have built their own infrastructure and established a robust following will have the resources to drive their own messaging on key local issues and GOTV in their districts. Persuasion and GOTV efforts for them will continue at record levels – in no small part because of their engagement with digital media on the devices that their voters have come to trust.

Follow Semcasting (@Semcasting) and AdExchanger (@adexchanger) on Twitter.

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Tiffany Haddish Shows No One Escapes the Nightmare of Thanksgiving Politics in The Oath

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And now we know what she looks like getting tased.

Long before 2016, many people had survived their families at Thanksgiving by instituting strict "no politics" rules. Now that we’re all trapped in an unending collective nightmare, that might be a morally questionable policy—but in Tiffany Haddish’s newest movie, it looks completely impossible.

Haddish stars alongside Ike Barinholtz in The Oath (which is also Barinholtz’s directorial debut) about a family Thanksgiving that goes from fighting over politics to fighting with fists and knives. There are plenty of lines that sound like they could have come from almost any Internet comments section—like, "My favorite thing about liberals! As soon as they’re triggered, they call everyone a Nazi"—but framed by some cryptic, The Purge-sounding government mandate called the "Patriot Oath."

The Oath debuts October 12, with enough time for you to have your own Thanksgiving where you can tell someone, "I just want to one more time say I am really sorry you got tased."

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Turnbull supporters rally in face of Dutton leadership rumblings – politics live

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  1. Turnbull supporters rally in face of Dutton leadership rumblings – politics live  The Guardian
  2. Full coverage



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