10 Big Questions that need answering about Stanley Cup aspirations of the Edmonton Oilers – Edmonton Journal

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Edmonton’s recent three games on the road, with two games against Toronto and one against Montreal, saw the Oilers get three points.

That’s not bad at all when facing two of top teams in the Canadian.

Even better, though, is that the trip should help the Edmonton Oilers answer some major questions about this year’s team heading into the April 12 NHL trading deadline.

Clearly, all is not well.

Despite getting the three points in three games, when it came to Grade A chances Edmonton had just 15 while the opposition had 42.

Something is amiss, not right, not clicking, not working out just now.

With Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse in their hockey-playing prime, this team should compete for the Stanley Cup each year. It doesn’t have a great opportunity to win this year, but it’s got a chance.

Edmonton has the 11th best winning percentage in the NHL. That’s good but not great.

Is there anything that can help this team turn the corner and become great in time for the 2021 playoffs?

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Let’s dig into 10 huge questions around the team:

1. Does Edmonton have the goaltending to make it out of the North Division in the 2021 playoffs?Yes. This was the biggest question mark heading into the season. So far, the answer is affirmative. Mike Smith has a .919 save percentage, the 15th best in the NHL this year, but the second best in the Canadian, behind only Jake Allen of Montreal at .920.

Connor Hellebucyk of Winnipeg is at .918. Thatcher Demko of Vancouver at .917, Carey Price at .906, Jacob Markstrom and Mikko Koskinen at .902.

A team will likely need two good goalies to go far into the playoffs, but if Smith stays healthy and keeps us this level of play, Edmonton’s goaltending is a decent bet to be solid as any other North Division team’s netminding in the playoffs. In case of injury, the Oilers have now added veteran goalie Alex Stalock.

2. Do Edmonton have solid depth forwards? 75/25. The depth forwards aren’t killing it but are hanging in there. In the past Edmonton was something of a one-line team. This year things have been somewhat better with Gaetan Haas, Josh Archibald, Jujhar Khaira, Tyler Ennis, Devon Shore and Alex Chiasson all providing useful two-way play on a fairly consistent basis.

Kyle Turris has struggled — his -11 goals plus-minus is no mirage — but others have generally stepped up and delivered at least adequate performances, in particular on defence. If there’s a centre who can win faceoffs, kill penalties and play shut down defence in the defensive slot, it might be worth it for Oilers to trade for such a player, but Haas and Khaira have played well enough that this isn’t any kind of top priority for Oilers GM Ken Holland.

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3. Does Edmonton have a No. 1 d-man?Yes. Darnell Nurse had some tough moments against Toronto and Montreal in his own zone. The weight of carrying Edmonton’s defence, as well as iffy defensive partner Tyson Barrie, looks like it might be catching up to him. But there is no doubt that Nurse has stepped us as a real No. 1 d-man this year. He’s handling the puck better, moving it more smartly and confidently in all zones. It might be time to put Ethan Bear back at his side, though, as Barrie’s defensive game has gone missing the last few games.

4. Does Edmonton have a solid Top 4 defence? 75/25. Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson are strong two-way NHL d-men against tough competition. Ethan Bear was one last year, and he’s again playing with more confidence and sharpness. Barrie is a fantastic passer of the puck, but his defence isn’t great. William Lagesson started out strong, but has faded both in terms of moving the puck, which was never his strength, and defending in his own zone, which was. To change up things, the Oilers can try Bear with Nurse again, and one of Kris Russell (who is playing some of his best hockey as an Oiler) or Caleb Jones with Larsson. There are enough internal options here that the Oilers should not have to trade for a Top 4 d-man at the deadline.

5. Does Edmonton have enough options on the current roster to answer all the questions on defence? Yes. Edmonton had decent options for the Top 4 but many solid options for the bottom pairing, including Lagesson, Jones, Barrie, Evan Bouchard and Theodor Lennstrom. There’s no shortage of NHL quality depth defenders on the roster.

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6. Have we found strong linemates for Connor McDavid? No. If not, is there an internal solution? 25/75. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid have done well together this year, though we saw can happen to the Oilers in the last two games if Draisaitl and McDavid are paired up and the opposition successfully checks them. To win in the playoffs, they will each need to centre their own line.

We already know that a line of Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can excel, but who to play with McDavid if Oilers coach Dave Tippett were to again go that route? The one player who hasn’t been tried there is Domink Kahun, who has had OK results playing with Draisaitl. Kahun and McDavid have played just 15 even strength minutes together this year, whereas Kahun has played 297 even strength minutes with Draisaitl, with the Oilers scoring 13 goals and giving up 10 goals. Why not give Kahun a whirl with McDavid and either Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian or maybe even Yamamoto (moving Puljujarvi to the Draisaitl line)?  Kahun is a smart, clever and decent two-way player. Maybe he’s got the hockey IQ to fit in with McDavid. One thing for sure: Tippett will never know this unless he gives it a try. And if he gives it a try this week and it works, Edmonton may not be forced to give up major assets in a trade for a Top 6 winger at the deadline.

7. Are the Oilers a strong enough two-way team at even strength to win in the playoffs? 25/75. Edmonton has given up 296 Grade A chances at even strength this year but created 310. They’ve scored 90 even strength goals and given up just 81, and rank 14th in Goals For percentage at 52.6. That is good. These are signs of growth.

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The problem? Toronto ranks 4th overall at 57.4 per cent, Montreal ranks sixth at 56.7 per cent and Winnipeg ranks 11th at 53.8 per cent. Edmonton is closing in on the best even strength teams, but still lags a bit. This is where better lines and defensive pairings will help. And it’s why it’s necessary for Tippett to keep tinkering.

All that said, it’s worth noting that the Oilers are trending in the right direction here. Last season they gave up 173 and scored just 160 even strength goals, a 48 GF%, 25th overall in the NHL. Edmonton did this on 616 Grade A chances for at even strength, 643 Grade As against in 2019-20.

8. Can the Oilers kill off penalties well enough to advance? 50/50. Edmonton’s PK isn’t great but there isn’t a great PK in the Canadian. Edmonton ranks 19th overall in the NHL on the PK with a 77.6 clearance rate. The best playoff bound team in the Canadian is Winnipeg at 78.4 per cent, 17th in the NHL, just a wee bit better than Edmonton. Toronto ranks 20th at 77.3 and Montreal ranks 21st, 77.1.

In other words, no team has a clear advantage here, and the team that can step up its PK efficiency can gain an edge in the playoffs. Edmonton badly misses Riley Sheahan on the PK this year, but perhaps RNH, Khaira, Haas and Archibald can get in sync and start shutting down the opposition more effectively.

9. Is the power play going to get it done in the playoffs? Yes. Edmonton has the sixth best power play in the NHL with a 25.9 success rate, but it’s just behind Toronto at 26.0 per cent and Winnipeg, 26.2. Montreal ranks 14th overall at 22.7. In other words, all the playoff teams in the Canadian will have strong-to-outstanding power plays. Which one will get hot at the right time in the playoffs? I would not bet against McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH and Barrie.

10. Does the team have to add at the trading deadline in order to win in the playoffs? 75/25. Unless Kahun steps up at McDavid’s side, and with Dylan Holloway out for six weeks with injury and with Tyler Benson still inexplicably down on the farm, it looks like Edmonton should be in the market for a veteran Top 6 winger for April 12. It should be noted that this winger does not have to be any kind of all-star. The most important things are that he can a) take and make a pass b) defend smartly, including in the defensive slot and c) has a high hockey IQ. It’s worth noting that Kahun likely has all these attributes, which is why I’m keen to see him get a few games with McDavid. And if Kahun is with McDavid, that means RNH and play with Draisaitl, a combination we know works well at even strength.

P.S. As for McDavid’s $5,000 fine from the NHL, it was warranted for his elbow at Montreal’s Jesperi Kotkaniemi. If it was the other way around, we’d certainly be calling for the NHL to take action against Kotkaniemi. At the same time, given the mauling that McDavid takes, and the NHL permits, I was glad to see the player snap and take his own self-preservation into his own hands. If the NHL won’t stand up for McDavid, he’ll have to do it himself, even if that means crossing a line now and then.

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Buffalo News columnist Mike Harrington @ByMHarrington
Oilers fans need to understand that just because Connor McDavid takes an unnecessary beating at times, it doesn’t give him license to commit a dangerous foul. Enough already. The two aren’t connected. Good lord.

Oilers blogger Jason Adams @AdamsOnHockey
Drew Doughty, elbow to the face of Connor McDavid

– targets the head
– head is principal point of contact
– it’s in retaliation to a crosscheck

No penalty, no fine. ????☕️

Montreal hockey analyst Marc Dumont @MarcPDumont @ScoutingTheRefs
Here’s my take, with as little bias as possible considering my employer:

I don’t care that it was McDavid. I just want all headshots, including the ones on McDavid, to be suspension-worthy. No more excuses, no more justification on dirty hits. Just call them. ALL OF THEM.

Oilers Now Bob Stauffer @Bob_Stauffer
IMO the NHL does not protect their stars the way the NBA and NFL does.
So star players, like Connor McDavid, have to “create” their own space. And McDavid’s elbow last night pales in comparison to a Howe of the 60’s, Messier of the 80’s or Bure on Churla in the 90’s.

Sports lawyer Eric Macramalla @EricOnSportsLaw
If Tom Wilson delivered that same hit on McDavid, he would be playing hockey in Siberia right about now….McDavid should have been suspended for this hit. Instead, he was fined $5000. This is precisely the type of hit that the NHL needs to eradicate from the game. We know these hits can cause irreparable brain damage.

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Toronto commentator Sid Seixeiro @Sid_Seixeiro
Connor McDavid’s had to deal with officials not protecting him for years. If he wants to throw an elbow now and again I’m fine with it.

Chicago hockey columnist Mark Lazerus @MarkLazerus
Connor McDavid makes $14 million this season. A $5,000 fine is the equivalent of a $17.86 fine to someone making $50,000.

This HAS to be renegotiated in the CBA. It’s nonsense.

Edmonton Journal hockey writer Derek Van Diest @DerekVanDiest
There’s nothing much here. The main point of contact was on Kotkaniemi’s arm and then he sells it when McDavid’s elbow come up and grazes his face. The fine is appropriate, but there isn’t anything suspendible here IMO.

PJ Stock @PJStock28
I know a lot of u are trying your best to defend Connor McDavid for this hit and say that he doesn’t deserve a suspension…If anyone else does this to him you’re all screaming murder. Late. Retaliation. Intent. Hit to head. Someone explain why his elbow is that high?

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