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2 Media Stocks Set to Beat Estimates This Earnings Season

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Media companies’ results this earnings season are likely to reflect consumers’ growing preference for over-the-top (OTT) content consumption. The rise of streaming platforms has resulted in audiences moving away from traditional cable and satellite subscriptions.

The decline in ratings for broadcast television and the reduced demand for theatrical content sales pose significant challenges for industry participants. Advertisers’ hesitant spending, driven by concerns over inflation and higher interest rates, has added to the industry’s woes amid an increasing rate of cord-cutting and stiff competition from subscription video-on-demand and virtual Multichannel Video Programming Distributor services.

Despite stiff competition, industry players are benefiting from the spike in the demand for high-speed broadband. Strong demand for WiFi devices and wireless Internet has been a boon.

Diversified content offerings, which are original, regional, short and suitable for small screens (smartphones and tablets), improved Internet speed and penetration, and technological advancement are benefiting the industry participants. As monetization and revenues in terms of ad-spend continue to be subdued, profit protection and cash management with greater technology integration have gained strategic significance and are expected to have driven the top lines of industry participants like Disney DIS and Paramount Global PARA in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

Industry Trends to Drive Growth

Investing in media companies at the forefront of the digital transformation, leveraging original content creation and the wave of high-speed Internet demand, presents a compelling opportunity. The convergence of these factors positions such companies to capture new revenue streams, expand internationally and navigate the evolving media landscape successfully.

The industry’s pivot toward digital platforms is driving a surge in original content creation. Media companies like Warner Bros. Discovery WBD are investing heavily in producing high-quality, exclusive content to meet the demands of a discerning audience. This shift is not only a response to changing consumption patterns but also a proactive strategy to differentiate and compete in a crowded digital space. Successful content creation not only enhances subscriber loyalty but also opens avenues for additional revenue streams through licensing and syndication deals.

Media companies are also experiencing a paradigm shift in revenue generation, moving beyond traditional TV platforms. The ability to harness ad revenues from diverse digital channels, including websites and other digital platforms, presents a significant growth opportunity. Target-based advertising, facilitated by the data-rich digital environment, is becoming a cornerstone for revenue diversification.

The growing preference for digital and subscription services over linear pay television has compelled media companies to alter their business models. Acknowledging the shift in consumer behavior, industry players are adopting alternative business models, such as skinny bundles, to provide more cost-effective options to consumers. These bundles, delivered at lower costs than traditional offerings, aim to attract a wider audience and enhance the industry’s competitiveness.

The surge in demand for high-speed Internet, including broadband, is a pivotal catalyst propelling the growth of industry participants like Rogers Communications and Charter. Faster Internet speeds are fostering a preference for high-quality video content and the trend of binge-watching. The strengthening broadband ecosystem on a global scale, coupled with the proliferation of smart TVs, creates a conducive environment for media companies to thrive. As consumers seek seamless, high-quality content delivery, companies providing engaging digital experiences stand to benefit from the expanding market.

Continuous investment in technology, content innovation and strategic partnerships will be crucial to staying ahead in this dynamic landscape.

How to Make the Right Pick?

With the existence of a number of industry players, finding media stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates can be daunting. Our proprietary methodology, however, makes it fairly simple.

You could narrow down your choices by looking at stocks that have the perfect combination of two key elements: a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP is our proprietary methodology for determining stocks that have maximum chances of beating estimates at their next earnings announcement. It is the percentage difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Our research shows that for stocks with this favorable mix of ingredients, the odds of an earnings surprise are as high as 70%.

Best Bets

Given below are two media stocks that have the favorable combination to beat on earnings this reporting cycle:

Disney is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Feb 7. The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.13% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Disney has been benefiting from a solid revival in the domestic and international theme park businesses. Latest attractions like the Frozen theme land at Hong Kong Disneyland and Walt Disney Park in Paris, as well as the Zootopia theme land at Shanghai Disney, are expected to have aided the theme park business.

The company’s focus on sports streaming, particularly Live Sports on ESPN+, remains a key catalyst in driving viewership. The renewal of the MLB sports rights deal through 2028 and the agreement with Spanish club football’s first division, La Liga, further strengthened the portfolio of its sports content.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has moved south by 1% to $1 per share in the past 30 days.

The Walt Disney Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Walt Disney Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Walt Disney Company price-eps-surprise | The Walt Disney Company Quote

Paramount Global is slated to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 28. The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +144.95% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Paramount Global has been benefiting from a spike in viewership for its streaming services, boosted by the strong adoption of Paramount+. An expanding content catalog of live sporting events and a solid portfolio of streaming services (both advertising and subscription-based offerings), including CBS All Access, Showtime OTT, Pluto TV, Noggin, and BET+, are expected to have boosted viewership in the to-be-reported quarter.

Moreover, subscriber growth is expected to have been boosted by the launch of Paramount+ with SHOWTIME plan, a cornerstone integration that makes Paramount+ the new streaming home for SHOWTIME.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate has remained steady at a loss of 4 cents per share in the past 30 days.

Paramount Global Price and EPS Surprise

Paramount Global Price and EPS Surprise

Paramount Global price-eps-surprise | Paramount Global Quote

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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What to stream this weekend: ‘Civil War,’ Snow Patrol, ‘How to Die Alone,’ ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Uglies’

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Hallmark launching a streaming service with two new original series, and Bill Skarsgård out for revenge in “Boy Kills World” are some of the new television, films, music and games headed to a device near you.

Also among the streaming offerings worth your time as selected by The Associated Press’ entertainment journalists: Alex Garland’s “Civil War” starring Kirsten Dunst, Natasha Rothwell’s heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone” and Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts.

NEW MOVIES TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is finally making its debut on MAX on Friday. The film stars Kirsten Dunst as a veteran photojournalist covering a violent war that’s divided America; She reluctantly allows an aspiring photographer, played by Cailee Spaeny, to tag along as she, an editor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and a reporter (Wagner Moura) make the dangerous journey to Washington, D.C., to interview the president (Nick Offerman), a blustery, rising despot who has given himself a third term, taken to attacking his citizens and shut himself off from the press. In my review, I called it a bellowing and haunting experience; Smart and thought-provoking with great performances. It’s well worth a watch.

— Joey King stars in Netflix’s adaptation of Scott Westerfeld’s “Uglies,” about a future society in which everyone is required to have beautifying cosmetic surgery at age 16. Streaming on Friday, McG directed the film, in which King’s character inadvertently finds herself in the midst of an uprising against the status quo. “Outer Banks” star Chase Stokes plays King’s best friend.

— Bill Skarsgård is out for revenge against the woman (Famke Janssen) who killed his family in “Boy Kills World,” coming to Hulu on Friday. Moritz Mohr directed the ultra-violent film, of which Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote: “It’s a depraved vision, yet I got caught up in its kick-ass revenge-horror pizzazz, its disreputable commitment to what it was doing.”

AP Film Writer Lindsey Bahr

NEW MUSIC TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— The year was 2006. Snow Patrol, the Northern Irish-Scottish alternative rock band, released an album, “Eyes Open,” producing the biggest hit of their career: “Chasing Cars.” A lot has happened in the time since — three, soon to be four quality full-length albums, to be exact. On Friday, the band will release “The Forest Is the Path,” their first new album in seven years. Anthemic pop-rock is the name of the game across songs of love and loss, like “All,”“The Beginning” and “This Is the Sound Of Your Voice.”

— For fans of raucous guitar music, Jordan Peele’s 2022 sci-fi thriller, “NOPE,” provided a surprising, if tiny, thrill. One of the leads, Emerald “Em” Haywood portrayed by Keke Palmer, rocks a Jesus Lizard shirt. (Also featured through the film: Rage Against the Machine, Wipers, Mr Bungle, Butthole Surfers and Earth band shirts.) The Austin noise rock band are a less than obvious pick, having been signed to the legendary Touch and Go Records and having stopped releasing new albums in 1998. That changes on Friday the 13th, when “Rack” arrives. And for those curious: The Jesus Lizard’s intensity never went away.

AP Music Writer Maria Sherman

NEW SHOWS TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Hallmark launched a streaming service called Hallmark+ on Tuesday with two new original series, the scripted drama “The Chicken Sisters” and unscripted series “Celebrations with Lacey Chabert.” If you’re a Hallmark holiday movies fan, you know Chabert. She’s starred in more than 30 of their films and many are holiday themed. Off camera, Chabert has a passion for throwing parties and entertaining. In “Celebrations,” deserving people are surprised with a bash in their honor — planned with Chabert’s help. “The Chicken Sisters” stars Schuyler Fisk, Wendie Malick and Lea Thompson in a show about employees at rival chicken restaurants in a small town. The eight-episode series is based on a novel of the same name.

Natasha Rothwell of “Insecure” and “The White Lotus” fame created and stars in a new heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone.” She plays Mel, a broke, go-along-to-get-along, single, airport employee who, after a near-death experience, makes the conscious decision to take risks and pursue her dreams. Rothwell has been working on the series for the past eight years and described it to The AP as “the most vulnerable piece of art I’ve ever put into the world.” Like Mel, Rothwell had to learn to bet on herself to make the show she wanted to make. “In the Venn diagram of me and Mel, there’s significant overlap,” said Rothwell. It premieres Friday on Hulu.

— Shailene Woodley, DeWanda Wise and Betty Gilpin star in a new drama for Starz called “Three Women,” about entrepreneur Sloane, homemaker Lina and student Maggie who are each stepping into their power and making life-changing decisions. They’re interviewed by a writer named Gia (Woodley.) The series is based on a 2019 best-selling book of the same name by Lisa Taddeo. “Three Women” premieres Friday on Starz.

— Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts Sunday on Paramount+. Stallone plays Dwight Manfredi, a mafia boss who was recently released from prison after serving 25 years. He’s sent to Tulsa to set up a new crime syndicate. The series is created by Taylor Sheridan of “Yellowstone” fame.

Alicia Rancilio

NEW VIDEO GAMES TO PLAY

— One thing about the title of Focus Entertainment’s Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 — you know exactly what you’re in for. You are Demetrian Titus, a genetically enhanced brute sent into battle against the Tyranids, an insectoid species with an insatiable craving for human flesh. You have a rocket-powered suit of armor and an arsenal of ridiculous weapons like the “Chainsword,” the “Thunderhammer” and the “Melta Rifle,” so what could go wrong? Besides the squishy single-player mode, there are cooperative missions and six-vs.-six free-for-alls. You can suit up now on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S or PC.

— Likewise, Wild Bastards isn’t exactly the kind of title that’s going to attract fans of, say, Animal Crossing. It’s another sci-fi shooter, but the protagonists are a gang of 13 varmints — aliens and androids included — who are on the run from the law. Each outlaw has a distinctive set of weapons and special powers: Sarge, for example, is a robot with horse genes, while Billy the Squid is … well, you get the idea. Australian studio Blue Manchu developed the 2019 cult hit Void Bastards, and this Wild-West-in-space spinoff has the same snarky humor and vibrant, neon-drenched cartoon look. Saddle up on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S, Nintendo Switch or PC.

Lou Kesten

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Trump could cash out his DJT stock within weeks. Here’s what happens if he sells

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Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.

Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.

Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.

Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.

Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.

Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.

As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.

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Arizona man accused of social media threats to Trump is arrested

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Cochise County, AZ — Law enforcement officials in Arizona have apprehended Ronald Lee Syvrud, a 66-year-old resident of Cochise County, after a manhunt was launched following alleged death threats he made against former President Donald Trump. The threats reportedly surfaced in social media posts over the past two weeks, as Trump visited the US-Mexico border in Cochise County on Thursday.

Syvrud, who hails from Benson, Arizona, located about 50 miles southeast of Tucson, was captured by the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office on Thursday afternoon. The Sheriff’s Office confirmed his arrest, stating, “This subject has been taken into custody without incident.”

In addition to the alleged threats against Trump, Syvrud is wanted for multiple offences, including failure to register as a sex offender. He also faces several warrants in both Wisconsin and Arizona, including charges for driving under the influence and a felony hit-and-run.

The timing of the arrest coincided with Trump’s visit to Cochise County, where he toured the US-Mexico border. During his visit, Trump addressed the ongoing border issues and criticized his political rival, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, for what he described as lax immigration policies. When asked by reporters about the ongoing manhunt for Syvrud, Trump responded, “No, I have not heard that, but I am not that surprised and the reason is because I want to do things that are very bad for the bad guys.”

This incident marks the latest in a series of threats against political figures during the current election cycle. Just earlier this month, a 66-year-old Virginia man was arrested on suspicion of making death threats against Vice President Kamala Harris and other public officials.

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