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New poll shows 42 per cent of Tory voters feel Scheer should step down

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The pressure is on Andrew Scheer as a survey shows that more than two-fifths of Canadians who voted Conservative in the recent federal election feel it’s time for the leader to step down, according to a new Angus Reid poll released Tuesday.

Many described Scheer’s inability to capitalize on a rocky year for the Justin Trudeau Liberals as a failure by the Conservative leader. Despite the SNC-Lavalin affair and the blackface and brownface scandals, Trudeau still captured enough votes to form a minority government.

Respondents to the poll showed a nearly even split among those who cast their ballot for the Tories on October 21st:  41 per cent believe of CPC voters feel Scheer should remain, while 42 per cent think he should step down as party leader. The poll is considered accurate within +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

On Wednesday, Scheer will meet with his new caucus for the first time since the Oct. 21 vote, and will attempt to explain why an election win failed to materialize.

The Angus Reid poll “reinforces the idea that Andrew Scheer’s days as Conservative leader are numbered and he’ll probably step down before the (leadership) convention,” said political science professor Nelson Wiseman.

“I think in a way that’s quite unfortunate.”

Should he stay or should he go?

Looking at the poll results geographically, those Tory voters in the West favoured Scheer remaining, while most of respondents in the East who voted Tory wanted him to step down.

A total of 42 per cent of Tory-voting respondents in B.C., Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba think Scheer should stay, but 38 per cent of Tory-voting westerners want him gone. Conversely, 45 per cent of respondents in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada who voted Conservative think Scheer should go, while 39 per cent think he should stay.

As well, among those same voters, more than half (51 per cent) of the respondents who hold a university degree or higher think Scheer should get the boot, while 45 per cent of of those who only hold a high school diploma tend to favour Scheer staying put.

“People now get one kick at the can and then it’s over,” said Wiseman. He described a shifting political culture and atmosphere, driven by the media, as a major culprit for this new phenomenon.

“Robert Stanfield ran and lost three elections — nobody talked about getting rid of him,” Wiseman said. Stanfield ran against Pierre Trudeau in 1968, 1972 and 1974 and came within two seats of winning in 1972.

Are Canadians pleased with the election outcome?

With all the talk about Western alienation and Wexit, it’s no surprise that the poll showed that residents of Alberta (61 per cent) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (57 per cent) are upset with Trudeau’s minority win. Interestingly, more than a third (36 per cent) of Ontarians are also upset with the election results. Still, 43 per cent of Ontarians are pleased, according to the survey. As well, 45 per cent of Quebecers indicated they are happy with the Liberal minority outcome.

Will we be asked to vote again soon?

With the Liberals winning 157 seats — shy of the 170-seat threshold to gain a majority — Canadians aren’t so sure the Trudeau government will last a full four-year term. More than half (55 per cent) of respondents believe the government won’t last past the two-year mark, while 13 per cent believe the Liberal government can make it through the full term.

Before the two-year mark, the Conservatives will host their convention next spring, where the question of a leadership vote may arise. This is shocking for Wiseman, who said that at one point in history, “Once you became leader, you were the leader.”

However, Wiseman sounded caution about some elements of the poll. He pointed to bias in the sample size, noting how respondents were voluntary members of the Angus Reid Institute and that the number of responses varied among the numerous questions.

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Western alienation goes to Ottawa as Andrew Scheer and Scott Moe meet with Trudeau

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau got a firsthand blast of Western angst on Tuesday as he heard the complaints of Conservative leader Andrew Scheer and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe in separate private meetings.

With the Liberals planning to unveil a Throne Speech on Dec. 5, Trudeau will be meeting with opposition parties this week to look for common ground that will help keep his minority government propped up. The House is expected to sit for about seven days to take care of some routine business and introduce a middle-class tax cut, before breaking for the holidays.

For his meeting, Moe said he arrived in Ottawa in good faith to hear how Trudeau planned to make good on a promise he made on election night: that he understood and would address the frustrations of voters in Alberta and Saskatchewan who elected not a single Liberal MP between them on Oct. 21.

“I can tell you this, I did not hear that there was going to be anything different. I heard more of the same,” a disgruntled Moe told reporters after the meeting.

Moe brought the carbon tax to the top of the agenda as he met with Trudeau. Saskatchewan has been pursuing a legal case against the federal policy, arguing that it infringes on provincial jurisdiction.

Moe was also vocal about the carbon tax in his media availability after the meeting with Trudeau, saying he had asked Trudeau to “pause” the tax, which the prime minister rebuffed.

“We don’t see a commitment with respect to moving forward and putting a pause on the federally imposed carbon tax on industries in the provinces,” said Moe. “We have had a very trying harvest in Saskatchewan… there are some farmers that will have some very large carbon tax bills that are coming on the grain-drying costs.”

Moe also complained about the equalization program, saying it was unfair to provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador. His neighbour to the west, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, has threatened to hold a provincial referendum that would force a negotiation on the federal equalization program if the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion isn’t built.

Moe said the issue of “getting our goods to market,” was the third item he raised with Trudeau.


Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe meets with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Nov. 12, 2019.

Justin Tang/The Canadian Press

The meeting with Scheer began with an awkward handshake and photo opportunity as the two men transition from a fractious election campaign last month to the forced collegiality of a minority Parliament. As the cameras rolled, the two men stood about two feet apart with tight smiles, before shooing the media out of the meeting room.

Scheer and Trudeau spoke about their mutual desire for a middle-class tax cut, the ratification of the USMCA trade deal with the United States and the construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, a senior Liberal adviser said. Scheer told Trudeau that Canadians don’t trust that he’ll build the pipeline, with Trudeau responding that the sole reason the government bought the pipeline was to get it built.

“You could help us,” Trudeau told Scheer.

Trudeau and Scheer also found common ground on a home renovation tax credit.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Scheer said he was happy to lay out his priorities but emphasized that it was the prime minister’s job to get his Throne Speech passed in the House.

“It’s not up to us to support this government,” said Scheer, in French. “The responsibility lies with Mr. Trudeau when it comes to finding common ground.”

Andrew Scheer with Trudeau

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Nov. 12, 2019.

Patrick Doyle/Reuters

The Conservative leader did lay out some more areas where he thinks the Liberal priorities overlap with his own. Both parties promised hefty middle-class tax cuts during the campaign, which cost roughly the same amount, although they would be implemented in different ways and have slightly different outcomes. The Liberal tax plan was slightly more generous to taxpayers at the lower end of the income scale and would take about 700,000 people off the federal income tax rolls completely.

Scheer also mentioned plans for subway line expansions in Toronto and tax-free benefits for parental leave as areas where the Liberal policy could be appealing to the Conservative Party.

One area where the Liberal government and the Conservative opposition are sure to disagree is over previously-passed legislation that affects the energy sector. Scheer said he wants Trudeau to repeal Bill C-69, the legislation that overhauls the review process for major energy projects, and Bill C-48, which imposes an oil tanker moratorium off the north of B.C.’s coast. Both bills have attracted widespread opposition in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

“I specifically mentioned that those two pieces of legislation were aimed, if you take him at his word, at instilling confidence in the energy sector,” said Scheer. “We can see with the billions of dollars leaving Canada to build energy projects in other countries that those two pieces of legislation have not had the desired impact. They are certainly leading to the uncertainty and the lack of confidence in the energy sector.”

Scheer’s other demands included a task force on a proposed cross-Canada energy corridor, stronger penalties for ethics violations and a single tax return for Quebecers, which were all highly-publicized Conservative campaign promises. Notably, the Conservative demands did not include any mention of the carbon tax, which Scheer had said during the campaign he would repeal if his party formed government.

• Email: sxthomson@postmedia.com | Twitter:

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Premier Scott Moe says he is ‘disappointed’ after meeting with Trudeau

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OTTAWA—Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe left Ottawa empty-handed Tuesday after his first meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after the October federal election.

Moe, one of the loudest voices of Western provinces’ frustration with Trudeau’s Liberals, wanted changes to the federal equalization system, a one-year reprieve for his province from the federal carbon tax, and a commitment from the prime minister to help boost Saskatchewan’s exports.

The Saskatchewan premier told reporters outside the Prime Minister’s Office he was “disappointed” with the meeting.

“After this meeting here today, what I do see is that we’re going to see more of the same from this prime minister,” Moe said after the meeting with Trudeau.

“We had provided some options for him to support the people of the province and today I did not hear a commitment to moving forward on those items.”

In a statement, a spokesperson for Trudeau said the prime minister will continue to have “constructive discussions” with premiers and mayors.

“In addition to ensuring this Parliament works, Canadians expect our government to make life more affordable for them and fight climate change,” Cameron Ahmad said in a statement.

“The prime minister is eager to work together to keep making progress and grow the middle class, and looks forward to meeting with all premiers one-on-one in the near future.”

Moe called for a “new deal with Canada” for his province after the Oct. 21 federal election, which saw Conservative MPs win all 14 of Saskatchewan’s federal ridings.

The premier suggested Tuesday that the Liberals failure to secure a single seat in the province — including losing longtime MP and cabinet minister Ralph Goodale’s Regina riding — was an expression of the anger growing in Saskatchewan and Alberta towards Trudeau and central Canada.

Moe and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney have been at the forefront of that anger, with Kenney also demanding equalization reform and the repeal of recent Liberal environmental legislation.

Like Kenney, Moe suggested Wednesday that he will turn his efforts to finding ways to make Saskatchewan more independent from the federal government — although he stopped short of endorsing Western separation rhetoric.

“We are going to start to broaden our ambitions, if you will, with respect to Saskatchewan’s outreach to our trading partners around the world,” Moe said.

“We are also going to look at options that we have to expand our provincial autonomy in the province.”

But a Liberal source with direct knowledge of the meeting between Trudeau and Moe said the prime minister was willing to listen to specific proposals on equalization — provided Moe can receive buy-in from his 12 fellow premiers.

“The prime minister said ‘look, if you have a specific proposal as chair of the Council of the Federation, and you have buy-in from all the provinces on changing the formula that (former prime minister Stephen) Harper and Kenney set … I’m open to hearing proposals and ideas,’” the source, who was granted anonymity to discuss a private meeting, said.

“So he didn’t say that he would refuse to hear ideas, but he made it clear that this is what we’re talking about and we have to stick to the facts and it can’t just be all about rhetoric.”

It’s Moe’s year to chair the Council of the Federation, the annual meeting of provincial and territorial leaders. While the Saskatchewan premier has allies opposing the federal carbon price, including Ontario Premier Doug Ford, he may find his proposals on equalization a tougher sell around that table.

In Quebec’s National Assembly Tuesday, Parti Québécois interim leader Pascal Bérubé suggested he would put forward a motion calling on the federal government not to make any changes to the equalization formula without the express approval of the Quebec government.

It’s those kinds of regional tensions that create a political hurdle to tweaking equalization, the federal transfer program aimed at ensuring Canadians have comparable public services whatever province they live in.

“The federal government can change the formula however and whenever they see fit. They’re really just political considerations here,” said University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe in an interview Tuesday.

“Equalization is always an issue that’s raised in different provinces at different points in time. There’s nothing new here … It continues a long-standing tradition in Canada.”

Moe was the third conservative premier to meet with Trudeau after the Liberals were returned to Ottawa with a minority mandate. Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister and Prince Edward Island Premier Dennis King both met with the prime minister last week.

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MacKay will vote for Scheer to stay on as Conservative Leader

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Former Conservative cabinet minister Peter MacKay says that when the time comes to vote on Andrew Scheer’s continued leadership of the party, he’s going to back the Conservative Leader.

The comment comes less than two weeks after MacKay told a Wilson Centre think tank panel in Washington that Scheer’s 2019 election loss “was like having a breakaway on an open net and missing the net.”

Now, MacKay – whose name has been floated as a potential challenger to Scheer for the top spot in the party – told CTV Power Play host Don Martin that he supports the current leader and will continue to do so.

“Well Andrew Scheer is going to face a mandatory review, Don, that’s part of the Conservative constitution, so that will be for he and the membership. I’ll be there, and I’ll be voting no,” MacKay told Martin in a pre-taped interview, airing Monday.

MacKay also walked back other comments made during the same panel on Oct. 30. At the time, MacKay said the chatter about issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage “hung around Andrew Scheer’s neck like stinking albatross, quite frankly.”

Speaking to Martin on Monday, MacKay said those comments weren’t directed at Scheer’s position on those issues.

“Those comments, of course, were torqued. It was about the election performance generally, writ large, myself included. It wasn’t aimed directly at Andrew Scheer – and when I said there was an albatross around his neck, he didn’t put it there. It was put there by the media, it was put there by the opposition quite deliberately to hamstring his performance,” said MacKay.

Asked about the lack of clarity surrounding Scheer’s personal beliefs on same-sex marriage, MacKay couldn’t explain why Scheer hasn’t been more clear.

“I think Andrew Scheer, who has very strong beliefs, doesn’t think it’s a sin and I can’t answer why it is he hasn’t been more direct in his answer,” MacKay said.

MacKay went on to defend both Andrew Scheer and the Conservative Party’s record when it comes to protecting human rights.

“Andrew Scheer was part of the Conservative government for ten years that not only didn’t remove rights, it enhanced rights. It spoke up for people’s rights on the international stage…there’s a proud legacy that Andrew Scheer is a part of, can take ownership of, and can proudly stand behind and I believe he is doing that. He’s trying to make that case.”

Scheer was criticized during the election campaign for failing to clarify his personal beliefs on issues including same-sex marriage and abortion. Scheer, a social Conservative who has publicly opposed both issues in the past, says he would uphold the law on abortion.

He also said in a pre-campaign speech that if he formed government, he would “support and introduce” legislation that protects LGBTQ Canadians.

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