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Fed Bostic says he would have dissented against last rate cut

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(Reuters) – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that he would have probably dissented against the last rate cut if he had a vote in monetary policy because the U.S. economy is “solid” and not in need of easing.

Bostic still expects the economy to grow above trend and projects inflation will reach the Fed’s 2% target, he told reporters after an event organized by the Money Marketeers of New York University.

“Consumers are staying pretty rock solid,” Bostic said, citing economic data and business surveys. He said current monetary policy is “accommodative” and there would need to be a “significant” shift in economic data for him to support either a rate cut or a rate increase.

The negative effects of the prolonged trade war with China have grown but they remain modest and are not yet hitting consumers, Bostic said.

“Many businesses that we’ve talked to basically said we’re not going to pass that on, so we have not seen consumers face the tariffs,” he said. “When we do, that will be a new phase of the tariff war,”

Consumers are likely to continue to spend as long as the labor market remains strong, he said. And there are some signs the U.S. labor market may be a “bit beyond full employment” according to conversations with business leaders in his district, he said.

Some employers struggling to find workers are now relaxing their hiring standards by eliminating background checks, drug tests or job interviews, he said. Staffing agencies have reported that some new hires don’t show up for work because they have found better jobs.

One large food service company is even allowing people to start work the same day they apply, he said.

“I do think that the economy today is on solid footing and is likely to remain so,” Bostic said. “I am fairly comfortable standing pat with policy and strongly favor weighing the incoming data, both macro and micro, over the coming months before deciding on any further adjustments.”

Fed officials voted last week to lower the benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other policymakers characterized the rate reduction as the last of the central bank’s “insurance” cuts.

The Fed’s target rate is now at a range of 1.50% to 1.75%. Bostic does not vote in monetary policy decisions this year, though he participates in policy discussions, and he will become a voting member in 2021.

(Reporting by Jonnelle Marte; Editing by Leslie Adler & Shri Navaratnam)

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Economy

North America economy is the most resilient against climate change

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By 2050, climate change will shrink the US economy by 1.1%, according to a report from the Economist Intelligence Unit. The same holds true for North America’s economy as a whole, according to the report. Natural catastrophes, such as wildfires and droughts, for example, will continue to be a drag on the economy with worsening climate conditions.

Still, the United States is comparably well off. Western Europe’s GDP growth stands to drop 1.7% over the next 30 years, putting it in second place behind North America.

Preparation for climate change is higher in these regions, which is making them more resilient. Wealthier and more developed economies have it easier when it comes to battling the onslaught of climate challenges. But being rich is only part of the deal. The quality of government institutions also matters.

Institutions must be able to adapt to change and put effective mitigation policies in place to remain intact in the face of climate challenges. But being rich is only part of the deal The quality of government institutions also matters.

“Poor institutions, therefore, can simultaneously harm economic growth and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change,” the report said. This might include investing in flood defense, water storage or public infrastructure.
Global GDP growth will be 3% lower by 2050 thanks to the impact of climate change, and that means the developing world will bear the brunt of the bad news.
Africa is the most vulnerable to negative economic impact, according to the EIU report. The continent’s economy stands to shrink by 4.7% over the next 30 years. It is already at a disadvantage because average temperatures are higher and economic development is lower compared to the United States, for example.
Latin America and the Middle East are rounding out as the top three of the least resilient regions. Asia-Pacific falls in the middle, with an expected hit of 2.6% to its economy thanks to climate change.
“Countries, both developed and developing, will need to make a greater effort on the domestic front to meet their goals on adaptation and mitigation for the economic impacts to be reduced,” said EIU Country Analysis Director John Ferguson.

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Poland sees bigger state role in economy

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By Alan Charlish and Alicja Ptak

WARSAW (Reuters) – Poland’s prime minister set out plans on Tuesday to strengthen the state’s role in the economy and deepen an overhaul of the justice system that has put Warsaw on a collision course with its European Union partners.

Mateusz Morawiecki said the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party would continue increasing welfare spending and the share of Polish capital in domestic companies, underlining its break with the free-market reforms of liberal governments before it.

“Neoliberals have fueled a sense of confusion in our value system. Many people were led to believe that the state is a ball and chain,” he said in a policy speech to parliament after an Oct. 13 election that gave PiS four more years in power. “Extremes are not good. We are building a normal state.”

Morawiecki spoke repeatedly of a return to “normality”, referring both to PiS’s economic policies and its conservative vision of the traditional family which has won over voters but has been criticized by opponents for encouraging homophobia.

He promised new welfare programs to help families with at least three children and the elderly.

In separate comments, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said: “Our society… must be based on the Polish family, the family in its traditional sense. A family which takes the form of a relationship between a man and a woman.”

Opposition lawmakers criticized PiS’s vision of normality.

“The desire for normality means the rule of law and economic prudence, and you break those principles day after day,” said Grzegorz Schetyna, leader of the largest opposition party, Civic Platform.

Morawiecki’s government won a vote of confidence in a late-evening session on Tuesday, with 237 deputies out of 454 lending him their support.

CONCERNS OVER RULE OF LAW

Since returning to power in 2015, PiS has introduced changes to how courts are run and altered some of the rules governing the Constitutional Tribunal and the Supreme Court.

The European Commission, the EU executive, responded by launching legal action over reforms which it says threaten the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary.

The European Court of Justice ruled on Tuesday that it was up to Poland’s Supreme Court to decide on the independence of the Disciplinary Chamber and the National Judiciary Council, offering some criteria on adherence to EU law.

Morawiecki gave no details of the next steps PiS plans to take in its reforms of the judiciary. The party says further reforms are intended to make the court system more efficient but opponents say the reforms made so far have politicized it.

PiS has said it will keep a balanced budget in 2020, benefiting from one-off revenues and fast economic growth, although some economists say such plans are too ambitious at a time when the European economy is slowing down.

(Reporting by Agnieszka Barteczko, Alan Charlish, Joanna Plucinska, Anna Koper, Pawel Florkiewicz and Alicja Ptak; Editing by Timothy Heritage)

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Economy

Cyclical Stocks That Will Lead as Economy Rebounds

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Cyclical stocks are beating the market, and should continue to outperform in 2020 as the U.S. economy rebounds, Goldman Sachs forecasts. Since late August, the S&P 500 is up by 9%, cyclical stocks have advanced by 12%, but defensive stocks have lagged with an 8% gain, per Goldman’s current US Weekly Kickstart report.

“The relative performance of Cyclicals vs. Defensives suggests the equity market is anticipating an acceleration in US economic growth during the coming months,” Goldman says. “Investors who want to capture further cyclical upside can improve risk-reward by narrowing their focus to select cyclical stocks,” they add.

Among the 24 stocks that passed Goldman’s Cyclically-Attractive Risk-Reward screen are these 10, which are expected to post a sharp acceleration in their EPS growth in 2020 compared to the previous year. Goldman for example, forecasts that CommScope Holdings Co. Inc. (COMM) will post 2020 earnings growth that’s 17 percentage points (pp) higher than this year. Other companies include Lincoln National Corp. (LNC), 79 pp higher, Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG), 38 pp, Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN), 30 pp, Kohl’s Corp. (KSS), 11 pp, 3M Co. (MMM), 17 pp, MetLife Inc. (MET), 12 pp, Lear Corp. (LEA), 42 pp, Prosperity Bancshares Inc. (PB), 35 pp, and Evercore Inc. (EVR), 18 pp.

Key Takeaways

  • Goldman Sachs forecasts accelerating U.S. GDP growth in 2020.
  • They identified cheap cyclical stocks with significant upside potential.
  • These stocks are highly sensitive to economic data surprises.

Significance For Investors

Goldman screened the Russell 1000 Index for stocks with high historical share price sensitivity to economic data surprises, but whose current valuations, as measured by forward P/E ratios, are significantly below both their own 5-year averages and the average for the index. Goldman excluded energy stocks, based on their forecast of flat oil prices, and semiconductor stocks, given that shipments have recovered to trend. Among the stocks listed above, Urban Outfitters and Prosperity Bancshares are the most economically-sensitive.

The median stock in the basket has a forward P/E of 11 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, versus a 5-year average of 14 times, and a current figure of 19 times for the median Russell 1000 stock. While the median stock in the basket has a projected EPS growth rate in 2020 of 7%, versus 8% for the median Russell 1000 stock, its growth rate is forecast to improve by 9 percentage points from 2019 to 2020, versus an improvement of only 3 percentage points for the median stock in the index.

Goldman sees signs that the U.S. economy is rebounding, which should give cyclical stocks additional upside. They cite recent positives in non-farm payroll growth, home sales, retail sales, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. They forecast U.S real GDP to grow by 2.1% in 2020, versus the consensus projection of 1.8%.

Motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson appears to have huge upside, according to Goldman’s analysis. It has a forward P/E of 11 times, slightly below its 5-year average of 12 times. The consensus calls for 21% EPS growth in 2020, up 38 percentage points from 2019. While Q3 2019 revenue was down by 5% year-over-year (YOY) and shipments dropped by 6%, Harley beat estimates and the stock surged, Barron’s reported. About 40% of total bikes sold were overseas, with sales in Asia up by nearly 9%.

Insurance company MetLife has a forward P/E of 8 times, slightly below its 5-year average. The consensus calls for 9% EPS growth in 2020, up 12 percentage points from 2019. Revenue and EPS in Q3 2019 were up 15% and 161%, respectively. Revenues from premiums rose by 5.3%, and total revenues beat the consensus estimate by 14%, per The Wall Street Journal. However, more than half the beat was due to a gain on derivatives contracts used to hedge against lower interest rates.

Looking Ahead

To be sure, many of these companies have posted poor results in the past few years. And Goldman’s bullish view depends on an imminent economic rebound seen by few other strategists on Wall Street. If Goldman is wrong and the economy stalls or goes south, these stocks will follow close behind.

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