People around the world participated in the Global Day of Climate Action on Friday, a reminder that even though we’re in the midst of one of the biggest health issues to face humanity, climate change stands to pose an even bigger threat — with increased chances of drought, wildfires, hurricanes, flooding and heat waves.
At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year, businesses shuttered and people went into lockdown. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions dropped, including both nitrogen dioxide and carbon dioxide (CO2), two drivers of global warming.
There was some hope that this could be the silver lining to a tragic situation, but the fact is, it’s unlikely to make a dent in the upward trend of Earth’s rising temperatures.
In fact, the U.S. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recorded that globally, August’s land and sea temperatures were the second-highest on record. For North America, it was the hottest August on record, at 1.52 C above average. August also marked the 428th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average.
The issue is that CO2 has already accumulated in our atmosphere, and Earth is playing a game of catch-up.
“Carbon dioxide can last thousands and thousands of years in the atmosphere,” said Ahira Sanchez-Lugo, a physical scientist who compiles global temperature data at NCEI. “So just because with the pandemic we’ve seen a reduction in emissions, that doesn’t mean that we will see a reduction in global temperatures any time soon.”
This graph illustrates the rise of cumulative CO2 in the atmosphere over time. The data before 1958 was taken using ice cores. (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Climatologist Michael Mann, a professor of atmospheric science at Penn State University, said there’s likely to be a drop in emissions but that it won’t make a large difference.
“It will probably lead to a roughly four to five per cent reduction in carbon emissions for 2020. That means a very slightly lower rate of warming,” he said.
Too many blankets
Sanchez-Lugo likes to use the analogy of CO2 acting as Earth’s blanket: It’s needed in order to regulate the planet’s temperature, but additional accumulation is like throwing more and more blankets on top.
“So that’s what’s happening right now in that sense: Right now, Earth already has several layers of blankets, and just because we stopped or we’ve reduced carbon greenhouse emissions recently, that doesn’t mean that we’re peeling off those blankets,” she said.
Year-to-date, the temperature is 1.03 C higher than the average and is only behind 2016’s record warmth of 1.08 C above average.
The hottest year on record was 2016, reaching 0.94 C above the average. It also marked the third-consecutive year a record was set. But that was also the year of a moderate to strong El Nino, a natural phenomenon that is characterized by warming in the Pacific Ocean — which in turn causes higher temperatures in some regions and greater precipitation in others.
This year, however, has not been a year of El Nino.
So does this mean we might break the 2016 record without its warming effect?
“Right now, there is about a 55 per cent chance of [2020] being the second warmest,” Sanchez-Lugo said, “and … about a 39 per cent chance of it being the warmest year on record.”
While 2020 may not be on top of the list, it’s likely that more and more records will be set in the coming years.
This graphic illustrates temperature anomalies across the globe during August 2020. (NOAA/NCEI)
A study published in May in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, of which Sanchez-Lugo was a co-author suggested that “there’s a greater than a 99 per cent chance that most of the next 10 years through 2028 will be ranked among the top 10 warmest.”
The pandemic might be a way of illustrating that countries can reduce their emissions by altering their lifestyles, such as by not commuting to work five days a week, which would be one way to continue to see emissions decrease.
But Mann said big changes need to be made in order to see significant improvement in the decades to come.
“If we can reduce carbon emissions a bit more — about seven per cent a year — for each of the next 10 years, we can stay on a path that stabilizes global warming below 1.5 C, preventing the most damaging and dangerous impacts of climate change,” he said.
“However, simple behavioural changes won’t get us there. We need systematic change, i.e. policies to rapidly decarbonize our economy.”
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.
Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.
She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.
Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.
“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.
It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.
Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.
Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.
Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.
“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.
He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.
Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.
Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.
Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.
The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.
The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.
It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.
Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.
Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.
Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.
Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.
Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.
The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”
VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.
Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”
Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.
“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.
B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.
Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.
Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.
Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.
“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”
Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”
“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.
Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.
“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.
