2022 was tough for media stocks like Netflix and Disney, and 2023 doesn't look good, either | Canada News Media
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2022 was tough for media stocks like Netflix and Disney, and 2023 doesn’t look good, either

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2 years ago

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In this photo illustration, a hand holding a TV remote control in front of the Disney Plus logo on a TV screen

Media stocks got rocked this year, with companies losing billions of dollars in market value, as streaming subscriber growth waned and the advertising market worsened.

The pain is likely to continue in the first half of 2023, according to media executives and industry analysts.

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery, two companies undergoing transitions, especially when it comes to streaming, each hit 52-week lows in recent days. So far this year, Warner’s stock is down more than 60% and Disney is off more than 45%.

The media industry has come to a turning point as competition among streaming services is at an all-time high and consumers are getting pickier about their number of subscriptions. On top of that, companies are contending with lower ad revenue and more cord cutting. Some expect consolidation to occur in the near future.

“Across the sector, it’s chaos,” said Mark Boidman, head of media and entertainment investment banking at Solomon Partners. “Everyone has been saying for years that technology is going to change the media world, and it has. But we’re at this real point now where it’s crunch time.” He predicts bundled streaming will become more important in 2023.

It’s been a tough year across the board for the market. The Nasdaq Composite is headed for its worst decline since 2008, and it’s positioned to underperform the S&P 500 for a second straight year. Other industries’ stocks, including tech, have been clobbered.

Major tech stocks have lost at least half of their value. Streaming giant Netflix’s stock has dropped more than 50%, with its market cap cut in half to roughly $123 billion.

Streaming woes

When Netflix reported it lost subscribers in the first quarter — the first time in more than 10 years — the news sent a shock wave through the sector. The streaming giant blamed heightened competition. It also started exploring an ad-supported, cheaper option for customers, something the company had long said it wouldn’t do.

Since then, other media company stocks have followed suit.

Disney, meanwhile, has been facing challenges since the early days of the pandemic, when movie theaters and theme parks were closed for months. Disney’s financial performance has been scrutinized in recent months, and following its disappointing earnings report in November, the company’s board ousted Bob Chapek and brought back longtime former boss Bob Iger.

Although Disney investors were immediately elated over Iger’s return, the stock soon after faltered, most recently due in part to a lower-than-expected opening box office weekend for “Avatar: The Way of Water.”

Warner’s stock got slammed this year as management for the newly combined company — the merger between Warner Bros. and Discovery closed this spring — has been cutting costs, warning of the tough ad market, and focusing on making its streaming business profitable in the future.

Since Netflix’s losses earlier this year, Wall Street has been questioning the viability of streaming business models.

“I think everyone was trying to emulate Netflix with the hope of seeing a similar valuation, and at this point the jig is up,” said John Hodulik, an analyst at UBS. “Netflix is no longer being valued at a revenue multiple. Investors are asking how direct-to-consumer gets to profitability.”

The sentiment also has weighed on Warner, which plans to combine HBO Max and Discovery next year, as well as Paramount Global and Comcast’s NBCUniversal. Investors have a magnifying glass on subscriber counts and content spending, which has mounted to tens of billions of dollars for these companies.

“Now there’s a new focus on these costs,” said Hodulik. “I think Warner Bros. Discovery is leading the charge, but we’re going to see other companies pare back their ambitions in the streaming space over time.”

Tightening ad market

On top of this, the ad market has worsened. During times of economic uncertainty, companies often pull back on advertising spending, which is often seen as discretionary.

Paramount missed third-quarter estimates after its ad revenue dropped, with its stock hitting a low in the following days. The stock is down more than 45% this year. Paramount’s shares did get a boost recently after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway upped its stake in the company, fueling speculation that it could be an acquisition target.

Earlier this month at an industry conference, CEO Bob Bakish lowered expectations for the company’s fourth-quarter ad sales. NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell also said at the same conference advertising has steadily worsened in the last six to nine months, although he noted ad revenue would be up in the fourth quarter.

“These stocks have been down a lot, and investors are asking themselves why would I buy this ahead of bad news not just next quarter, but the next few quarters,” Hodulik said. “Things might get worse before they get better.”

There were some bright spots on the advertising front, however.

Streamers like Netflix and Disney now offer ad-supported, cheaper options for customers, which is expected to be a positive for their businesses. “We also anticipate that advertising streaming will become more important in the year to come,” Solomon Partners’ Boidman said.

Political advertising revenue was also up in the third and fourth quarters due to the heated midterm elections, with broadcast station owners like Nexstar Broadcast Group and Tegna reaping the benefits. These stocks, particularly Nexstar, were both up year to date, despite their industry’s overall weakness, as their revenues heavily rely on the high fees distributors pay to air their local networks.

Pay-TV exodus

Cord cutting, albeit not a new trend for the industry, “accelerated to all-time worsts” in the third quarter, according to data from MoffettNathanson. Along with advertising, Paramount cited it as a hindrance on its most recent quarterly results.

For media companies like Comcast and Charter Communications, lagging subscriber growth on the broadband front, rather than the pay-TV business, weighed more significantly on their stocks.

Charter, which solely offers pay-TV, broadband and mobile services and doesn’t have a foot in the streaming wars like peer Comcast, has particularly seen its stock suffer recently. Charter’s stock is down nearly 50% year to date, and it got hit earlier this month when the company told investors it would increase spending on its broadband network in the years to come. Comcast’s stock is down more than 30% so far this year.

“We knew cord cutting was happening, but it definitely accelerated since the beginning of the pandemic,” said Hodulik. “It looks set to get worse as we go into the first quarter.”

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Sutherland House Experts Book Publishing Launches To Empower Quiet Experts

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4 weeks ago

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September 19, 2024

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Sutherland House Experts is Empowering Quiet Experts through
Compelling Nonfiction in a Changing Ideas Landscape
TORONTO, ON — Almost one year after its launch, Sutherland House Experts is reshaping the publishing industry with its innovative co-publishing model for “quiet experts.” This approach, where expert authors share both costs and profits with the publisher, is bridging the gap between expertise and public discourse. Helping to drive this transformation is Neil Seeman, a renowned author, educator, and entrepreneur.

“The book publishing world is evolving rapidly,” publisher Neil Seeman explains. “There’s a growing hunger for expert voices in public dialogue, but traditional channels often fall short. Sutherland House Experts provides a platform for ‘quiet experts’ to share their knowledge with the broader book-reading audience.”

The company’s roster boasts respected thought leaders whose books are already gaining major traction:

• V. Kumar Murty, a world-renowned mathematician, and past Fields Institute director, just published “The Science of Human Possibilities” under the new press. The book has been declared a 2024 “must-read” by The Next Big Ideas Club and is receiving widespread media attention across North America.

• Eldon Sprickerhoff, co-founder of cybersecurity firm eSentire, is seeing strong pre-orders for his upcoming book, “Committed: Startup Survival Tips and Uncommon Sense for First-Time Tech Founders.”

• Dr. Tony Sanfilippo, a respected cardiologist and professor of medicine at Queen’s University, is generating significant media interest with his forthcoming book, “The Doctors We Need: Imagining a New Path for Physician Recruitment, Training, and Support.”

Seeman, whose recent and acclaimed book, “Accelerated Minds,” explores the entrepreneurial mindset, brings a unique perspective to publishing. His experience as a Senior Fellow at the University of Toronto’s Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, and academic affiliations with The Fields Institute and Massey College, give him deep insight into the challenges faced by people he calls “quiet experts.”

“Our goal is to empower quiet, expert authors to become entrepreneurs of actionable ideas the world needs to hear,” Seeman states. “We are blending scholarly insight with market savvy to create accessible, impactful narratives for a global readership. Quiet experts are people with decades of experience in one or more fields who seek to translate their insights into compelling non-fiction for the world,” says Seeman.

This fall, Seeman is taking his insights to the classroom. He will teach the new course, “The Writer as Entrepreneur,” at the University of Toronto, offering aspiring authors practical tools to navigate the evolving book publishing landscape. To enroll in this new weekly night course starting Tuesday, October 1st, visit:
https://learn.utoronto.ca/programs-courses/courses/4121-writer-entrepreneur

“The entrepreneurial ideas industry is changing rapidly,” Seeman notes. “Authors need new skills to thrive in this dynamic environment. My course and our publishing model provide those tools.”

About Neil Seeman:
Neil Seeman is co-founder and publisher of Sutherland House Experts, an author, educator, entrepreneur, and mental health advocate. He holds appointments at the University of Toronto, The Fields Institute, and Massey College. His work spans entrepreneurship, public health, and innovative publishing models.

Follow Neil Seeman:
https://www.neilseeman.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/seeman/

Follow Sutherland House Experts:
https://sutherlandhouseexperts.com/
https://www.instagram.com/sutherlandhouseexperts/

Media Inquiries:
Sasha Stoltz | Sasha@sashastoltzpublicity.com | 416.579.4804
https://www.sashastoltzpublicity.com
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What to stream this weekend: ‘Civil War,’ Snow Patrol, ‘How to Die Alone,’ ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Uglies’

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1 month ago

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September 13, 2024

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Hallmark launching a streaming service with two new original series, and Bill Skarsgård out for revenge in “Boy Kills World” are some of the new television, films, music and games headed to a device near you.

Also among the streaming offerings worth your time as selected by The Associated Press’ entertainment journalists: Alex Garland’s “Civil War” starring Kirsten Dunst, Natasha Rothwell’s heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone” and Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts.

NEW MOVIES TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is finally making its debut on MAX on Friday. The film stars Kirsten Dunst as a veteran photojournalist covering a violent war that’s divided America; She reluctantly allows an aspiring photographer, played by Cailee Spaeny, to tag along as she, an editor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and a reporter (Wagner Moura) make the dangerous journey to Washington, D.C., to interview the president (Nick Offerman), a blustery, rising despot who has given himself a third term, taken to attacking his citizens and shut himself off from the press. In my review, I called it a bellowing and haunting experience; Smart and thought-provoking with great performances. It’s well worth a watch.

— Joey King stars in Netflix’s adaptation of Scott Westerfeld’s “Uglies,” about a future society in which everyone is required to have beautifying cosmetic surgery at age 16. Streaming on Friday, McG directed the film, in which King’s character inadvertently finds herself in the midst of an uprising against the status quo. “Outer Banks” star Chase Stokes plays King’s best friend.

— Bill Skarsgård is out for revenge against the woman (Famke Janssen) who killed his family in “Boy Kills World,” coming to Hulu on Friday. Moritz Mohr directed the ultra-violent film, of which Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote: “It’s a depraved vision, yet I got caught up in its kick-ass revenge-horror pizzazz, its disreputable commitment to what it was doing.”

— AP Film Writer Lindsey Bahr

NEW MUSIC TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— The year was 2006. Snow Patrol, the Northern Irish-Scottish alternative rock band, released an album, “Eyes Open,” producing the biggest hit of their career: “Chasing Cars.” A lot has happened in the time since — three, soon to be four quality full-length albums, to be exact. On Friday, the band will release “The Forest Is the Path,” their first new album in seven years. Anthemic pop-rock is the name of the game across songs of love and loss, like “All,”“The Beginning” and “This Is the Sound Of Your Voice.”

— For fans of raucous guitar music, Jordan Peele’s 2022 sci-fi thriller, “NOPE,” provided a surprising, if tiny, thrill. One of the leads, Emerald “Em” Haywood portrayed by Keke Palmer, rocks a Jesus Lizard shirt. (Also featured through the film: Rage Against the Machine, Wipers, Mr Bungle, Butthole Surfers and Earth band shirts.) The Austin noise rock band are a less than obvious pick, having been signed to the legendary Touch and Go Records and having stopped releasing new albums in 1998. That changes on Friday the 13th, when “Rack” arrives. And for those curious: The Jesus Lizard’s intensity never went away.

— AP Music Writer Maria Sherman

NEW SHOWS TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Hallmark launched a streaming service called Hallmark+ on Tuesday with two new original series, the scripted drama “The Chicken Sisters” and unscripted series “Celebrations with Lacey Chabert.” If you’re a Hallmark holiday movies fan, you know Chabert. She’s starred in more than 30 of their films and many are holiday themed. Off camera, Chabert has a passion for throwing parties and entertaining. In “Celebrations,” deserving people are surprised with a bash in their honor — planned with Chabert’s help. “The Chicken Sisters” stars Schuyler Fisk, Wendie Malick and Lea Thompson in a show about employees at rival chicken restaurants in a small town. The eight-episode series is based on a novel of the same name.

— Natasha Rothwell of “Insecure” and “The White Lotus” fame created and stars in a new heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone.” She plays Mel, a broke, go-along-to-get-along, single, airport employee who, after a near-death experience, makes the conscious decision to take risks and pursue her dreams. Rothwell has been working on the series for the past eight years and described it to The AP as “the most vulnerable piece of art I’ve ever put into the world.” Like Mel, Rothwell had to learn to bet on herself to make the show she wanted to make. “In the Venn diagram of me and Mel, there’s significant overlap,” said Rothwell. It premieres Friday on Hulu.

— Shailene Woodley, DeWanda Wise and Betty Gilpin star in a new drama for Starz called “Three Women,” about entrepreneur Sloane, homemaker Lina and student Maggie who are each stepping into their power and making life-changing decisions. They’re interviewed by a writer named Gia (Woodley.) The series is based on a 2019 best-selling book of the same name by Lisa Taddeo. “Three Women” premieres Friday on Starz.

— Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts Sunday on Paramount+. Stallone plays Dwight Manfredi, a mafia boss who was recently released from prison after serving 25 years. He’s sent to Tulsa to set up a new crime syndicate. The series is created by Taylor Sheridan of “Yellowstone” fame.

— Alicia Rancilio

NEW VIDEO GAMES TO PLAY

— One thing about the title of Focus Entertainment’s Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 — you know exactly what you’re in for. You are Demetrian Titus, a genetically enhanced brute sent into battle against the Tyranids, an insectoid species with an insatiable craving for human flesh. You have a rocket-powered suit of armor and an arsenal of ridiculous weapons like the “Chainsword,” the “Thunderhammer” and the “Melta Rifle,” so what could go wrong? Besides the squishy single-player mode, there are cooperative missions and six-vs.-six free-for-alls. You can suit up now on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S or PC.

— Likewise, Wild Bastards isn’t exactly the kind of title that’s going to attract fans of, say, Animal Crossing. It’s another sci-fi shooter, but the protagonists are a gang of 13 varmints — aliens and androids included — who are on the run from the law. Each outlaw has a distinctive set of weapons and special powers: Sarge, for example, is a robot with horse genes, while Billy the Squid is … well, you get the idea. Australian studio Blue Manchu developed the 2019 cult hit Void Bastards, and this Wild-West-in-space spinoff has the same snarky humor and vibrant, neon-drenched cartoon look. Saddle up on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S, Nintendo Switch or PC.

— Lou Kesten

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Trump could cash out his DJT stock within weeks. Here’s what happens if he sells

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2 months ago

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August 23, 2024

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Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.

Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.

Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.

Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.

Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.

Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.

As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.

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