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3 key factors in how Canada will fare during the 4th wave of COVID-19 – CBC.ca

Published

3 years ago

August 24, 2021

It’s tough — even impossible — to predict exactly how Canada will fare in the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. And looking for clues from other countries only gets you so far.

Some regions are being overwhelmed, yet again, by this virus; others are avoiding catastrophe largely thanks to high vaccine uptake and other precautions. Widely different policy decisions and levels of restrictions also mean there’s no one-size-fits-all outcome.

So what will determine Canada’s experience in the months ahead?

Have a coronavirus question or news tip for CBC News? Email: Covid@cbc.ca or join us live in the comments now.

Multiple experts told CBC News that there are a few key factors in how the pandemic will play out as the delta variant continues spreading.

According to Matthew Miller, an associate professor of infectious diseases and immunology at McMaster University in Hamilton, there’s also good reason to hope that Canada might fare even better than many other countries with similar public health measures, thanks to our high vaccination rate and unique approach to immunizing residents.

“Vaccinated people in Canada are going to be much better off than vaccinated people almost anywhere else because of a reliance on mRNA, mixed-vaccine schedules and extended intervals,” he said.

“Obviously, though, as infectious disease experts and public health experts have rightly pointed out, a mixture of measures is still going to be required to control the pandemic effectively — and those are going to have profound influences on how we as a population experience the fourth wave.”

WATCH | Vaccine expert weighs in on how Canada could fare in the 4th wave:

Vaccine expert weighs in on how Canada could fare in the 4th wave

22 hours ago

Matthew Miller, an associate professor at McMaster University in Hamilton, explains some of the key factors at play in how Canada could fare in the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. 1:11

1. Vaccine uptake

Despite a sluggish start, Canada quickly became one of the most heavily vaccinated countries in the world against COVID-19.

Roughly 63 per cent of the total population is now fully vaccinated, and the number is slowly ticking higher.

While millions of people across the country remain unprotected, virologist Alyson Kelvin said Canada’s relatively high rate of immunization bodes well.

“We have fairly good coverage,” said Kelvin, who works with the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization (VIDO) at the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon.

“And the stats have come out that it seems we have better coverage compared to other countries — that’s going to be our biggest source of protection, that we were able to vaccinate so many people and, again, stop that chain of transmission of the virus.”

While high vaccination rates haven’t entirely blunted COVID-19 infections in other areas of the world, they have noticeably reduced cases of serious illness compared with earlier surges of the coronavirus.

Will Canada’s fourth wave of COVID-19 sting a little or a lot? Experts say multiple factors are at play in how the country will fare as cases keep rising thanks to the more contagious delta variant. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

In Spain, which has about a 66 per cent vaccination rate — a little higher than in Canada — the country’s latest wave of infections shot up the virus’s daily death toll, but nowhere near levels seen in earlier waves.

The heavily vaccinated U.K. also experienced a surge, then a dip before seeing another increase in cases this summer, but throughout it all, rates of hospitalization and death were far lower than earlier in the pandemic.

And in Iceland, where roughly 72 per cent of the total population is fully vaccinated, the rates of COVID-19 hospitalization remained low even as infections went up — and the country hasn’t recorded a single virus death since May.

McMaster University’s Miller said it’s crucial for Canada to get its vaccine uptake as high as possible by improving access, encouraging those who are still hesitant and even mandating vaccines in certain settings — particularly when it comes to persuading younger age groups.

“A little bit of pain with vaccine passports to do certain things that that demographic likes to do — go to clubs, eat indoors at restaurants — that’ll be enough to push those people to get vaccinated,” he said.

“That’s really where a vaccine mandate will make the biggest difference, I think, is in that younger group that are lagging a little bit behind right now.”

Already, there’s a patchwork of vaccination policies and mandates coming into force in health-care institutions, concert venues, universities and various levels of government across the country — but it’s not yet clear how much those efforts will increase uptake.

WATCH | Vaccination key to avoiding the worst from delta variant, experts say:

Vaccination key to avoiding the worst from delta variant, experts say

5 days ago

With the delta coronavirus variant making up more than 80 per cent of cases in Canada, experts say most people will encounter it. Getting a COVID-19 vaccine will prevent the worst outcomes. Correction: At 1:30 in this story, Dr. Mike Nayak is incorrectly identified as Mark Nayak. 2:44

2. Delaying, mixing different vaccines

Canada’s vaccination strategy was quite unorthodox in several ways, giving Canadians the ability to mix between different forms of vaccine technologies and space out doses.

Born out of necessity during a shortage of supplies, the approach stirred up controversy and even derailed some Canadians’ travel plans after some countries and cruise lines refused to accept people who received two different shots.

But Miller — who is affiliated with Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization but isn’t speaking on the advisory body’s behalf — said the recommendations were rooted in decades of vaccine science and could have a “profound influence on the longevity of the immune response.”

The unique road Canada took — allowing people to get second doses well beyond manufacturing guidelines, to a maximum of four months — is now likely a better bet than sticking to the speedy timelines used in clinical trials, he said.

“We know mixing and matching, we know that delayed prime-boost schedules really do give a better overall protective effect from vaccination,” Kelvin said, though she noted that more research is still needed.

Manitobans enjoy outdoor yoga with puppies at the Bronx Park Community Centre in Winnipeg in late August. More people are socializing again, with looser restrictions now in place in much of the country, even as Canada is dealing with the early days of a fourth wave of COVID-19. (Tyson Koschik/CBC)

Emerging studies, however, are starting to back up the early recommendations around mixing different vaccine technologies, with a focus on using the highly effective mRNA-based options, said Dr. Allison McGeer, a professor at the University of Toronto and an infectious disease physician at Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto.

“From what we know about T-cell immunity and antibodies, probably the best two doses to have are AstraZeneca followed by one of the mRNA vaccines,” she said, referring to the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. “So that was a really good choice for Canada, I think, to make that recommendation — and almost certainly better than two doses of AstraZeneca.”

McGeer said while Canada’s unique approach helped to get more shots in arms, she isn’t convinced it would necessarily make much of a difference in how the country fares in the fourth wave.

And Miller acknowledged that not every Canadian got their shot in the same manner, making it hard to know how the country’s strategies will play out.

“One complexity, of course, is that on the bookends of our vaccine rollout, there are exceptions, right?” he said. “So many health-care providers and long-term care residents got their vaccine in the recommended interval.”

WATCH | How convenient COVID-19 vaccine clinics help convince some to get the shot:

How convenient COVID-19 vaccine clinics help convince some to get the shot

16 days ago

As health officials work to get more people vaccinated against COVID-19, there’s hope that convenient pop-up clinics could help some decide to get the shot. 2:01

3. Public health measures and restrictions

To buy time while more Canadians get vaccinated, multiple experts point to the need for certain public health measures to keep case growth at bay — not necessarily a full lockdown but some level of restrictions.

That means maintaining the basic day-to-day precautions Canadians now know well: mask-wearing, physical distancing, avoiding large gatherings and crowded settings.

“We really need to think about our current situation and how having layers of protective measures really keeps everybody safe,” Kelvin said.

“We’re in a different landscape right now where a lot of public health measures have been lifted.”

Bringing back certain precautions will be particularly crucial as millions of unvaccinated children return to school this fall, according to Miller, who also said that’s the issue bringing the most uncertainty to the months ahead.

Both vaccines and some level of restrictions should be used in tandem to put Canada in the best position as delta-driven cases keep rising, several experts agreed.

“If we are really concerned about protecting vulnerable populations — people in long-term care facilities, those people who are immunocompromised, such as transplantation recipients — these multiple layers will help protect them,” Kelvin said.

“So it’s all of our jobs to take part in this.”

Have questions about this story? We’re answering as many as we can in the comments.

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With grief lingering, Blue Jackets GM Waddell places focus on hockey in wake of Gaudreau’s death

Published

7 hours ago

September 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) — Hearing the familiar sounds of clacking sticks and pucks banging off the boards and glass while watching Columbus Blue Jackets prospects from the stands of a cold rink on a warm late-summer afternoon was not enough to wash away the lingering residuals of grief for Don Waddell on Saturday.

That, the Blue Jackets’ general manager acknowledged, will take more time than anyone can guess — weeks, months, perhaps an entire season and beyond.

What mattered is how spending the weekend attending the Sabres Prospects Challenge represented a start to what Waddell called among the first steps in refocusing on hockey and the future in the aftermath of the deaths of Columbus star Johnny Gaudreau and his brother, Matthew, who were struck by a suspected drunken driver while riding bicycles on Aug 29.

“We got to play hockey,” Waddell said. “We’re not going to forget about Johnny and his family, the Gaudreau family.”

He then reflected on the speech Johnny Gaudreau’s wife, Meredith, made during the brothers’ funeral on Monday, by urging those in mourning to move forward as she will while focusing on raising their children.

“Everybody knows that Johnny wants them to play hockey,” Waddell said. “And everybody’s rallying around that.”

The resumption of hockey in Columbus began last week, when most Blue Jackets players returned to their facility to be together and lean on each other at the urging of Waddell and team captain Boone Jenner. And it will continue on Thursday, when the team opens training camp, exactly three weeks since the Gaudreaus were killed.

“Tragic. Senseless. But now we got to focus on trying to get our team ready to play hockey this year,” Waddell said. “We all mourn and heal differently, but I think as a team being together like that is going to be critical for them to get moving forward.”

Tragedy is no stranger to Waddell or the Blue Jackets.

Waddell was general manager of the then-Atlanta Thrashers in 2003 when Dany Heatley lost control of his car and struck a wall, with the crash killing passenger and teammate Dan Snyder. In 2021, Blue Jackets goalie Matiss Kivlenieks died during a July Fourth fireworks accident.

Waddell placed the emphasis on himself and coach Dean Evason — both newcomers to Columbus this offseason — to guide the team through what will be an emotional season.

“Now, do I think there’s going to be some dark days? I won’t be surprised,” Waddell said.

Reminders of the Gaudreaus’ deaths remain apparent, and reflected in Buffalo on Friday night. A moment of silence was held in tribute to the brothers before the opening faceoff of a game between the Blue Jackets and Sabres.

Afterward, Columbus prospect Gavin Brindley recalled the times he spent with Johnny Gaudreau in Columbus and as teammates representing the United States at the world hockey championships in the Czech Republic in May.

“He was one of the biggest mentors for me at the world championships,” Brindley said. “I couldn’t tell you how many times we hung out with Meredith, pictures on my phone. It’s just so hard to look back and see that kind of stuff.”

The NHL and NHL Players’ Association are providing the Blue Jackets help in the form of grief counseling, crowd security at vigils and addressing hockey issues, such as potentially altering the league’s salary cap rules to provide Columbus relief from having to reach the NHL minimum payroll because of the void left by Gaudreau’s contract.

“The Blue Jackets, I don’t think anybody’s focused from an organizational standpoint, from a hockey standpoint as to what comes next, because I think everybody’s still in shock,” NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman told The Associated Press last week. “I don’t think anybody’s focused right now other than on the grieving part, which is understandable.”

Much of the burden has fallen to Waddell, who has been in discussions with the NHL and the NHLPA and dealing with outreach programs with the Blue Jackets’ partner OhioHealth, while also overseeing preparations for training camp and gauging his prospects in Buffalo.

There’s also his roster to attend to, which he said has two openings at forward, one involving Justin Danforth, who may miss the start of the season because of a wrist injury. Waddell didn’t have to mention the second opening.

Tiring and emotional as it’s been, Waddell found comfort being in his element, a rink, and looking ahead to the start of training camp.

“The guys are in really good shape. We’ve done a lot of testing already and they’re eager to get going,” Waddell said. “We have a reason to play for. And we’ll make the best of it.”

The Blue Jackets later Sunday signed veteran winger James van Riemsdyk to a one-year contract worth $900,000.

“James van Riemsdyk has been a very consistent, productive player throughout his career,” Waddell said. “Bringing him to Columbus will not only provide depth to our group up front, but also valuable leadership and another veteran presence in our dressing room.”

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AP Hockey Writer Stephen Whyno in New York contributed to this report.

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PSG says defender Nuno Mendes target of racial abuse after a French league game

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7 hours ago

September 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

PARIS (AP) — Paris Saint-Germain defender Nuno Mendes was the target of abusive and racist comments on social media after a French league game.

The club condemned the abuse and expressed its “full support” Sunday for the Portugal left back, who was targeted following PSG’s 3-1 win against Brest on Saturday.

Mendes, who is Black, shared on his Instagram account a racist message he received.

During the match, Mendes brought down Ludovic Ajorque in the box for a penalty that Romain Del Castillo converted to give Brest the lead.

“Paris Saint-Germain doesn’t tolerate racism, antisemitism or any other form of discrimination,” the club said. “The racial insults directed at Nuno Mendes are totally unacceptable … we are working with the relevant authorities and associations to ensure those responsible are held accountable for their actions.”

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Slovenia’s Tadej Pogacar wins Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal

Published

7 hours ago

September 16, 2024

Anne Joseph

MONTREAL – Tadej Pogacar was so dominant on Sunday, Canada’s Michael Woods called it a race for second.

Pogacar, a three-time Tour de France champion from Slovenia, pedalled to a resounding victory at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal.

The UAE Team Emirates leader crossed the finish line 24 seconds ahead of Spain’s Pello Bilbao of Bahrain — Victorious to win the demanding 209.1-kilometre race on a sunny, 28 C day in Montreal. France’s Julian Alaphilippe of Soudal Quick-Step was third.

“He’s the greatest rider of all time, he’s a formidable opponent,” said Woods, who finished 45 seconds behind the leader in eighth. “If you’re not at your very, very best, then you can forget racing with him, and today was kind of representative of that.

“He’s at such a different level that if you follow him, it can be lights out.”

Pogacar slowed down before the last turn to celebrate with the crowd, high-five fans on Avenue du Parc and cruise past the finish line with his arms in the air after more than five hours on the bike.

The 25-year-old joined Belgium’s Greg Van Avermaet as the only multi-time winners in Montreal after claiming the race in 2022. He also redeemed a seventh-place finish at the Quebec City Grand Prix on Friday.

“I was disappointed, because I had such good legs that I didn’t do better than seventh,” Pogacar said. “To bounce back after seventh to victory here, it’s just an incredible feeling.”

It’s Pogacar’s latest win in a dominant year that includes victories at the Tour de France and Giro d’Italia.

Ottawa’s Woods (Israel Premier-Tech) tied a career-best in front of the home crowd in Montreal, but hoped for more after claiming a stage at the Spanish Vuelta two weeks ago.

“I wanted a better result,” the 37-year-old rider said. “My goal was a podium, but at the same time I’m happy with the performance. In bike racing, you can’t always get the result you want and I felt like I raced really well, I animated the race, I felt like I was up there.”

Pogacar completed the 17 climbs up and down Mount Royal near downtown in five hours 28 minutes 15 seconds.

He made his move with 23.3 kilometres to go, leaving the peloton in his dust as he pedalled into the lead — one he never relinquished.

Bilbao, Alaphilippe, Alex Aranburu (Movistar Team) and Bart Lemmen (Visma–Lease) chased in a group behind him, with Bilbao ultimately separating himself from the pack. But he never came close to catching Pogacar, who built a 35-second lead with one lap left to go.

“It was still a really hard race today, but the team was on point,” Pogacar said. “We did really how we planned, and the race situation was good for us. We make it hard in the last final laps, and they set me up for a (takeover) two laps to go, and it was all perfect.”

Ottawa’s Derek Gee, who placed ninth in this year’s Tour de France, finished 48th in Montreal, and called it a “hard day” in the heat.

“I think everyone knows when you see Tadej on the start line that it’s just going to be full gas,” Gee said.

Israel Premier-Tech teammate Hugo Houle of Sainte-Perpétue, Que., was 51st.

Houle said he heard Pogacar inform his teammates on the radio that he was ready to attack with two laps left in the race.

“I said then, well, clearly it’s over for me,” Houle said. “You see, cycling isn’t that complicated.”

Australia’s Michael Matthews won the Quebec City GP for a record third time on Friday, but did not finish in Montreal. The two races are the only North American events on the UCI World Tour.

Michael Leonard of Oakville, Ont., and Gil Gelders and Dries De Bondt of Belgium broke away from the peloton during the second lap. Leonard led the majority of the race before losing pace with 45 kilometres to go.

Only 89 of 169 riders from 24 teams — including the Canadian national team — completed the gruelling race that features 4,573 metres in total altitude.

Next up, the riders will head to the world championships in Zurich, Switzerland from Sept. 21 to 29.

Pogacar will try to join Eddy Merckx (1974) and Stephen Roche (1987) as the only men to win three major titles in a season — known as the Triple Crown.

“Today gave me a lot of confidence, motivation,” Pogacar said. “I think we are ready for world championships.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 15, 2024.

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