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3 Real Estate Stocks on Sale After a Downturn

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A perfect storm of rising interest rates, inflation, remote working and an oversupply of commercial properties is rattling the U.S. real estate market like never before.

A sobering reflection of the excess office space in the U.S. is the fact that about 18% of U.S. office space remained unoccupied, as of October. This percentage is predicted to increase as more leases come to an end and a growing number of companies reduce their real estate footprint.

The trend could have significant implications for companies that offer a wide range of real estate services to owners, occupiers, and investors globally. A potential decline in their stock prices could present an appealing opportunity for those seeking to increase their exposure to the real estate sector.

Jones Lang LaSalle JLL provides a plethora of real estate-related services. Its rich array of offerings includes property management, project development, advisory, maintainability, digital real estate management solutions, and consulting.

“Jones Lang LaSalle has benefited from the secular trends in the real estate services industry and has experienced explosive growth over the past decade as it recovered from the global financial crisis in 2007,” says a Morningstar equity report.

The company has evolved into a more robust generator of cash flow throughout the business cycle by expanding its range of services and capturing a larger portion of real estate spending.

JLL’s continued healthy growth is predicated on the company continuing to take share from its smaller rivals and from rising capital flows into real estate and growth in urbanization.

Further, the firm has been investing in modern technologies that give the company a unique insight into potentially disruptive solutions and emerging trends.

“We are confident that JLL will be able to outearn its cost of capital over the next 10 years particularly because its product mix has become more contractual and less cyclical as compared with the previous downturn,” says Morningstar equity analyst, Suryansh Sharma.

Given its significant business growth lately, “JLL is poised to better withstand future downturns,” says Sharma, who recently lowered the stock’s fair value to US$203 from US$205, prompted by the fact that “rapidly increasing interest rates and a slowing economy have weighed on the company’s recent results.”

Kilroy KRC is a premier owner and landlord that develops, acquires, and manages office, life science, and mixed-use real estate properties in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, and Austin. The company operates as a real estate investment trust.

“The company’s strategy is to achieve long-term maintainable growth by developing and owning the highest quality real estate in technology and life science market clusters,” says a Morningstar equity report.

The company has faced some choppy waters in some of its key markets in recent times due to economic uncertainty resulting from pandemic recovery and the remote work dynamic.

Employees are still hesitant at returning to the office as office utilization remains around 50% of the pre-pandemic level, the report states. The current vacancy rates in both LA (22.4% in Q4 2022) and San Fransisco (24.1%) are substantially higher than the vacancy rates during the height of the global financial crisis.

However, “we are seeing an increasing number of companies requiring their employees to return to the office,” observes Sharma, noting that while remote work and hybrid remote work solutions will gain increasing acceptance over time, “offices will continue to be the centerpiece of workplace strategy and will play an essential role in facilitating collaboration, harnessing innovation, and maintaining the company culture.”

Kilroy lacks an economic moat, though, due to “the uncertainty in demand associated with the remote work dynamic, and the ease with which competitors can lure tenants away with concessions,” says Sharma, who pegs the stock’s fair value at US$63.

Realty Income O owns roughly 13,100 freestanding, single-tenant, triple-net-leased retail properties across 49 states and Puerto Rico. Recent acquisitions have added industrial, gaming, office, manufacturing, and distribution properties (roughly 17% of revenue).

Realty Income describes itself as ‘The Monthly Dividend Company,’ and its line of business and operating metrics make “its dividend one of the most stable sources of income for investors,” says a Morningstar equity report.

The steady, stable stream of revenue has allowed Realty Income the rare distinction of being one of only two REITs to feature in the S&P High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index.

Its lease agreements are often long term (frequently 15 years), which affords the company a steady stream of rental income. “This makes Realty Income one of the most dependable investments for income-oriented investors,” says Morningstar equity analyst, Kevin Brown.

That being said, stability often comes at the cost of economic profit. Since the lease terms include very low annual rent increases (around 1%), it severely limits internal growth for the company. Therefore, to grow, Realty Income must rely on acquisitions.

“The company has executed nearly US$35 billion in acquisitions over the past decade at average cap rates around 6%,” points out Brown, who puts the stock’s fair value at US$76, but cautions that “the recent rise in interest rates has started to squeeze the company’s spread and its ability to create value.”

 

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C. voters face atmospheric river with heavy rain, high winds on election day

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VANCOUVER – Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.

Environment Canada says the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.

The agency says strong winds with gusts up to 80 kilometres an hour will also develop on Saturday — the day thousands are expected to go to the polls across B.C. — in parts of Vancouver Island and Metro Vancouver.

Wednesday was the last day for advance voting, which started on Oct. 10.

More than 180,000 voters cast their votes Wednesday — the most ever on an advance voting day in B.C., beating the record set just days earlier on Oct. 10 of more than 170,000 votes.

Environment Canada says voters in the area of the atmospheric river can expect around 70 millimetres of precipitation generally and up to 100 millimetres along the coastal mountains, while parts of Vancouver Island could see as much as 200 millimetres of rainfall for the weekend.

An atmospheric river system in November 2021 created severe flooding and landslides that at one point severed most rail links between Vancouver’s port and the rest of Canada while inundating communities in the Fraser Valley and B.C. Interior.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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No shortage when it comes to B.C. housing policies, as Eby, Rustad offer clear choice

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British Columbia voters face no shortage of policies when it comes to tackling the province’s housing woes in the run-up to Saturday’s election, with a clear choice for the next government’s approach.

David Eby’s New Democrats say the housing market on its own will not deliver the homes people need, while B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad saysgovernment is part of the problem and B.C. needs to “unleash” the potential of the private sector.

But Andy Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University, said the “punchline” was that neither would have a hand in regulating interest rates, the “giant X-factor” in housing affordability.

“The one policy that controls it all just happens to be a policy that the province, whoever wins, has absolutely no control over,” said Yan, who made a name for himself scrutinizing B.C.’s chronic affordability problems.

Some metrics have shown those problems easing, with Eby pointing to what he said was a seven per cent drop in rent prices in Vancouver.

But Statistics Canada says 2021 census data shows that 25.5 per cent of B.C. households were paying at least 30 per cent of their income on shelter costs, the worst for any province or territory.

Yan said government had “access to a few levers” aimed at boosting housing affordability, and Eby has been pulling several.

Yet a host of other factors are at play, rates in particular, Yan said.

“This is what makes housing so frustrating, right? It takes time. It takes decades through which solutions and policies play out,” Yan said.

Rustad, meanwhile, is running on a “deregulation” platform.

He has pledged to scrap key NDP housing initiatives, including the speculation and vacancy tax, restrictions on short-term rentals,and legislation aimed at boosting small-scale density in single-family neighbourhoods.

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau, meanwhile, says “commodification” of housing by large investors is a major factor driving up costs, and her party would prioritize people most vulnerable in the housing market.

Yan said it was too soon to fully assess the impact of the NDP government’s housing measures, but there was a risk housing challenges could get worse if certain safeguards were removed, such as policies that preserve existing rental homes.

If interest rates were to drop, spurring a surge of redevelopment, Yan said the new homes with higher rents could wipe the older, cheaper units off the map.

“There is this element of change and redevelopment that needs to occur as a city grows, yet the loss of that stock is part of really, the ongoing challenges,” Yan said.

Given the external forces buffeting the housing market, Yan said the question before voters this month was more about “narrative” than numbers.

“Who do you believe will deliver a better tomorrow?”

Yan said the market has limits, and governments play an important role in providing safeguards for those most vulnerable.

The market “won’t by itself deal with their housing needs,” Yan said, especially given what he described as B.C.’s “30-year deficit of non-market housing.”

IS HOUSING THE ‘GOVERNMENT’S JOB’?

Craig Jones, associate director of the Housing Research Collaborative at the University of British Columbia, echoed Yan, saying people are in “housing distress” and in urgent need of help in the form of social or non-market housing.

“The amount of housing that it’s going to take through straight-up supply to arrive at affordability, it’s more than the system can actually produce,” he said.

Among the three leaders, Yan said it was Furstenau who had focused on the role of the “financialization” of housing, or large investors using housing for profit.

“It really squeezes renters,” he said of the trend. “It captures those units that would ordinarily become affordable and moves (them) into an investment product.”

The Greens’ platform includes a pledge to advocate for federal legislation banning the sale of residential units toreal estate investment trusts, known as REITs.

The party has also proposed a two per cent tax on homes valued at $3 million or higher, while committing $1.5 billion to build 26,000 non-market units each year.

Eby’s NDP government has enacted a suite of policies aimed at speeding up the development and availability of middle-income housing and affordable rentals.

They include the Rental Protection Fund, which Jones described as a “cutting-edge” policy. The $500-million fund enables non-profit organizations to purchase and manage existing rental buildings with the goal of preserving their affordability.

Another flagship NDP housing initiative, dubbed BC Builds, uses $2 billion in government financingto offer low-interest loans for the development of rental buildings on low-cost, underutilized land. Under the program, operators must offer at least 20 per cent of their units at 20 per cent below the market value.

Ravi Kahlon, the NDP candidate for Delta North who serves as Eby’s housing minister,said BC Builds was designed to navigate “huge headwinds” in housing development, including high interest rates, global inflation and the cost of land.

Boosting supply is one piece of the larger housing puzzle, Kahlon said in an interview before the start of the election campaign.

“We also need governments to invest and … come up with innovative programs to be able to get more affordability than the market can deliver,” he said.

The NDP is also pledging to help more middle-class, first-time buyers into the housing market with a plan to finance 40 per cent of the price on certain projects, with the money repayable as a loan and carrying an interest rate of 1.5 per cent. The government’s contribution would have to be repaid upon resale, plus 40 per cent of any increase in value.

The Canadian Press reached out several times requesting a housing-focused interview with Rustad or another Conservative representative, but received no followup.

At a press conference officially launching the Conservatives’ campaign, Rustad said Eby “seems to think that (housing) is government’s job.”

A key element of the Conservatives’ housing plans is a provincial tax exemption dubbed the “Rustad Rebate.” It would start in 2026 with residents able to deduct up to $1,500 per month for rent and mortgage costs, increasing to $3,000 in 2029.

Rustad also wants Ottawa to reintroduce a 1970s federal program that offered tax incentives to spur multi-unit residential building construction.

“It’s critical to bring that back and get the rental stock that we need built,” Rustad said of the so-called MURB program during the recent televised leaders’ debate.

Rustad also wants to axe B.C.’s speculation and vacancy tax, which Eby says has added 20,000 units to the long-term rental market, and repeal rules restricting short-term rentals on platforms such as Airbnb and Vrbo to an operator’s principal residence or one secondary suite.

“(First) of all it was foreigners, and then it was speculators, and then it was vacant properties, and then it was Airbnbs, instead of pointing at the real problem, which is government, and government is getting in the way,” Rustad said during the televised leaders’ debate.

Rustad has also promised to speed up approvals for rezoning and development applications, and to step in if a city fails to meet the six-month target.

Eby’s approach to clearing zoning and regulatory hurdles includes legislation passed last fall that requires municipalities with more than 5,000 residents to allow small-scale, multi-unit housing on lots previously zoned for single family homes.

The New Democrats have also recently announced a series of free, standardized building designs and a plan to fast-track prefabricated homes in the province.

A statement from B.C.’s Housing Ministry said more than 90 per cent of 188 local governments had adopted the New Democrats’ small-scale, multi-unit housing legislation as of last month, while 21 had received extensions allowing more time.

Rustad has pledged to repeal that law too, describing Eby’s approach as “authoritarian.”

The Greens are meanwhile pledging to spend $650 million in annual infrastructure funding for communities, increase subsidies for elderly renters, and bring in vacancy control measures to prevent landlords from drastically raising rents for new tenants.

Yan likened the Oct. 19 election to a “referendum about the course that David Eby has set” for housing, with Rustad “offering a completely different direction.”

Regardless of which party and leader emerges victorious, Yan said B.C.’s next government will be working against the clock, as well as cost pressures.

Yan said failing to deliver affordable homes for everyone, particularly people living on B.C. streets and young, working families, came at a cost to the whole province.

“It diminishes us as a society, but then also as an economy.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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