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338Canada: Now for something lighter than politics—NHL projections! – Maclean’s

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The basic idea for the 338Canada electoral model spawned from a rudimentary Big Bang simulator I was coding for a conference on early universe cosmology, which had been scheduled during the height of the Clinton vs Trump election.

The conference itself was a moderate success among students and peers, but by the end of it my head was light-years away, deeply immersed into of this new videogame-like election simulator. I was pulling all-nighters playing around with the parameters, using past election results and demographic data trying to find proper indicators.

After the 2018 Quebec election, I dove into one of my childhood passions: hockey statistics. After the success of Moneyball in the early 2000s, analytics in sports grew in popularity and allowed nerds like me to feel more confident talking and writing about sports. A mild and intermittent Impostor Syndrome had kept me from doing just that until today… and so here is my very first hockey column.

The probability distribution for the number of goals per game per team in the NHL is eerily close to the famous Poisson Distribution. Although I do not wish to bore readers with math and statistics, I would argue that how well this probability function works with hockey results is actually both exciting and astounding.

Case in point: There have been 581 regular season NHL games this season (from Oct. 2 to the Christmas break) and so far there have been on average 3.04 goals per game per team. Here is the theoretical Poisson probability function of goals per game per team using this average value:

According to the graph above, the theoretical probability that a team is shut out in a game this season is 4.8 per cent; odds that a team scores only one goal is 14.5 per cent; 22.1 per cent for two goals and so on.

So how does this match actual game results? For sake of comparison, here is again the theoretical curve in blue and the actual results, in red, after the first 581 games of the current NHL season:

It’s amazingly close.

Naturally, a hockey game cannot be considered a perfect example of a Poisson process. In an ideal Poisson process, each event (in this case, a goal being scored) has to be completely independent from the previous and next event—in hockey (and sports in general) we simply cannot ignore the very real notion of momentum. In addition, not all goals are scored in similar conditions: a more thorough approach would require a breakdown of the goals scored at even strength, on the powerplay, and on the penalty kill separately (not to mention penalty shots, 3-on-3 overtime, and the shootout).

Nevertheless, a model is always constructed as an approximation of reality, especially when a heavy human element is involved—sports, politics, gaming, etc. The key to building reliable models is to start small, and gradually add more complex variables to test whether they actually improve the output. Otherwise, there is always a risk of adding random and mostly meaningless fluctuations to the results and mistakenly confuse this noise for actual data.

One of the most important indicators of a team’s success (or lack thereof) is the goal differential (goals for minus goal against). Obviously, this variable taken on its own is not perfect (no variable is): Team X could lose 7-0 one night and win the next two games 2-1. After those three games, team X would have a respectable record of 2-1-0, but a poor minus-5 goal differential. However, in the long run, teams with higher goal differentials tend to win more games. Case in point, let’s graph this season’s team point percentages (vertical axis) versus goal differential (horizontal axis):

We see a clear, almost linear, pattern: Teams that score more goals and allow fewer goals earn more points in the standings. This last sentence is not surprising in itself, but the fact that we see this obvious a pattern with only a half-season of data is incredibly telling.

Using this data (and updating it for all 31 teams on a daily basis) and running thousands of simulations of what’s left of the calendar, we can calculate playoff odds and point projections for every team. Here are the eastern conference standings as of the Christmas break with the 338 playoff odds and point projections:

Let’s take a look at the eastern Canadian teams:

The Toronto Maple Leafs are now projected to finish the season at 94 points (just above the eastern playoff threshold) with a 95 per cent confidence interval of ±12 points. However, considering the Leafs have significantly bounced back from a poor November since the firing of head coach Mike Babcock, it would not be surprising to see this point projection rise in the coming few weeks if the team keeps playing at this new level.

Here is the point progression and projection for the Leafs:

On the graph above, the black dotted line indicates the projected eastern playoff threshold (adjusted daily). The blue arrow indicates Mike Babcock’s last game as Leafs head coach, at which point the Leafs stood below the dotted line and were projected to miss the playoffs.

The graph below shows the projected point total for the Leafs on a daily basis. On the day of Babcock’s firing, the Leafs were projected at an average of 84 points, well outside of the playoff picture.

Over the past month, the Leafs have improved their point projection by 10 points (84 to 94) and are now more likely to make the playoffs than not.

The Montreal Canadiens have been playing inconsistent and average hockey all season so far. Here are the Habs’ point progression and projections. Notice how closely the point progression follows the dotted line:

After a poor November (during which they lost eight straight games), the Habs have picked up the pace and have won three of four in their Western Canadian road trip. As you can see above, the Canadiens are projected at 91 points, just below the eastern playoff threshold.

The Ottawa Senators would need a miracle to qualify for the playoffs this season. With only 36 points in 38 games, the Sens are currently projected at 82 points, clearly below the playoff threshold, and have remained below the dotted all season so far:

It would take a dramatic run, similar to the St. Louis Blues last season, for the Sens to make it—especially in a highly competitive Atlantic division: Tampa BayBuffaloMontrealFlorida and Toronto are only separated by five points in the standings as of this writing. With Boston almost locked in for first place, Ottawa would have to leapfrog at last four of those five aforementioned teams to enter the playoffs in April. That is highly unlikely.

We will take a closer look at the western Canadian teams in a future column. For more on the 338 hockey model, visit this page.

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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