4 charts show how SARS hit China's economy nearly 20 years ago - CNBC | Canada News Media
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4 charts show how SARS hit China's economy nearly 20 years ago – CNBC

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A Chinese man wears a protective mask as he walks during a snowfall in an empty and shuttered commercial street on February 5, 2020 in Beijing, China.

Kevin Frayer | Getty Images

The new coronavirus — believed to have first appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan — is often compared to SARS, which originated in China’s Guangdong province in November 2002 before spreading globally.

The two diseases come from the same large family of viruses that usually infect animals but can sometimes evolve and spread to humans. Investors and analysts often compare the two viruses to gauge the potential economic impact from the latest outbreak.

China’s government has taken more drastic moves this time to contain the new coronavirus, which has infected and killed more people than SARS did. That’s one reason why an increasing number of economists have forecast a larger hit to the Chinese — and global — economy from the new virus compared with SARS in 2003.

Here are four charts that show how SARS affected the Chinese economy 17 years ago.

China’s economic slowdown

Disruptions in economic activity during the SARS outbreak dragged down China’s growth from 11.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2003 to 9.1% in the following three months, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The then-sixth largest economy in the world rebounded in the subsequent quarters to register an annual growth rate of 10% — quicker than the previous year’s 9.1%, according to Refinitiv. But various estimates showed that China’s annual growth in 2003 could have been 0.5 to 1 percentage points higher without disruptions from SARS.

This time, several economists said the new coronavirus will mostly hit China’s first-quarter growth. Some banks and research houses have slashed their forecasts for China’s full-year growth by 0.2 to 0.7 percentage points — to as low as 5% in 2020.

Fall in retail sales growth

The retail sector in China was among the worst hit by the SARS epidemic. Growth in retail sales moderated to 4.3% in May 2003 — the slowest pace on record, according to Refinitiv.

Analysts have said that retail is once again likely to suffer the most from the spread of the new coronavirus, especially after the Chinese government locked down cities and restricted travel within the country.

But as with the SARS experience, economists said retail sales in China could bounce back after the new coronavirus is contained. That’s when consumers would go ahead with the spending that was held back by the virus outbreak, some analysts said.

Hit to industrial output

The industrial segment was also hit by the SARS epidemic, with growth in production slowing to 13.7% in May — the slowest expansion seen in the whole of 2003, Refinitiv data showed.

The drag on China’s industrial production from the new coronavirus could be more severe, some analysts said. That’s because factories in multiple major Chinese cities have remained shut as authorities rush to contain the virus, they said.

Economists from French bank Societe Generale said they expect the coronavirus “to be brought under control” in the later part of the first quarter, which would allow industrial firms to “raise capacities to meet orders.” But the economists warned that the situation in China may not improve as they expect.

Steady trade volume

Growth in China’s imports moderated following the SARS outbreak, but the expansion in exports was steady throughout 2003, official data showed.

The global economy was coming out of a downturn in 2001 to 2002 and demand for China’s exports was just picking up when the SARS outbreak occurred. That helped the Chinese economy to recover from the epidemic, said Australian bank Macquarie.

But economists from S&P Global Ratings said both imports and exports will be hit this time due to “supply outages and disruptions to the logistics networks.”

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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