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8 facts about Catholics and politics in the U.S. – Pew Research Center

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Every U.S. presidential election since 2004 has featured at least one Catholic candidate on one of the major party tickets. But if Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden wins this November, he will be only the second Catholic ever to assume the land’s highest office – John F. Kennedy was the first with a groundbreaking win in 1960.

Biden talks openly about his personal beliefs on the campaign trail, and his faith was a central theme at the recent Democratic National Convention. Having a Catholic candidate on a party ticket, however, does not guarantee support from Catholic voters. U.S. Catholics, who make up roughly one-fifth of the population, have a diverse range of political opinions, even on topics the Catholic Church has taken a clear stance on.

Here are eight facts about Catholics and politics in the United States, based on previously published Pew Research Center studies.

See also: Like Americans overall, U.S. Catholics are sharply divided by party

U.S. Catholics are split down the middle politically. Around half of Catholic registered voters (48%) describe themselves as Republicans or say they lean toward the Republican Party, while roughly the same share (47%) identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, according to Pew Research Center polls in 2018 and 2019.

In recent presidential elections, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates. In 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton, according to a Pew Research Center survey of validated voters (that is, members of the Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel who were matched to voter files). Catholics also narrowly backed Republican George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry in 2004, according to exit polls.

Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain in 2008 by a margin of 54% to 45%, and divided their votes almost exactly in half in 2012 (when Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney) and 2000 (when Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore).

White and Hispanic Catholics are very different politically. Nearly six-in-ten White Catholic registered voters (57%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, marking a big shift since 2008, when four-in-ten (41%) supported the GOP. Most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%), meanwhile, identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, a share that has remained fairly stable in the past decade. (Two-thirds of Catholic registered voters are White, while a quarter are Hispanic, according to data collected in 2018 and 2019.)

Catholics’ views of Trump are clearly divided by race and ethnicity. In a poll conducted in late July and early August – amid a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases – 54% of White Catholics overall said they approve of Trump’s performance as president, but 69% of Hispanic Catholics said they disapprove of the way he is handling his job. And 59% of White Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Trump, or lean that way, if the election were held today; among Hispanic Catholic registered voters, 65% said they would vote for Biden today. There was a similar divide in the last presidential election: 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump in 2016, according to a Pew Research Center survey of validated voters conducted at the time, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton.

When it comes to specific policy issues, Catholics are often more aligned with their political party than with the teachings of their church. On abortion, for example, 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults say they think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, according to a 2019 survey. This divide exists despite the Catholic Church’s formal opposition to abortion.

On immigration, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall along the border between the U.S. and Mexico, while 81% of Catholic Republicans favor expanding the wall, according to a separate 2019 survey. The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops has condemned Trump’s plan to build such a wall, and Pope Francis described the desire to build a border wall as “not Christian.”

These differences reflect a general political polarization among the U.S. public.

Catholics, like members of many other religious groups, don’t necessarily seek a president who shares their religious beliefs, but they want a president who lives a moral and ethical life. About six-in-ten Catholics (62%) say it is very important to them to have a president who personally lives a moral and ethical life, and this view is shared by similar shares of White and Hispanic Catholics, according to a February 2020 survey. Just 14% of Catholics say it is very important to them to have a president who shares their own religious beliefs, though Hispanic Catholics are about twice as likely as White Catholics to say this (22% vs. 9%).

Catholics view religious organizations as forces for good in society, but a clear majority say churches and other religious organizations should keep out of politics. About six-in-ten Catholics (62%) say U.S. churches and other houses of worship should keep out of politics, while 37% say churches should express their views on day-to-day social and political matters, according to a 2019 survey. Around three-quarters of U.S. Catholics (76%) say churches should not endorse candidates seeking elected office.

Partisanship colors Catholics’ perceptions of how religious Trump and Biden are. Overall, around six-in-ten Catholics (59%) say they think Biden is “very” or “somewhat” religious, according to a February 2020 survey. White and Hispanic Catholics express similar views of Biden’s religiousness, but Democratic Catholics (72%) are far more likely than Republican Catholics (46%) to say that he is at least somewhat religious.

Far fewer Catholics overall (37%) say Trump is at least somewhat religious, though the gap between Republicans and Democrats on this question is huge (63% vs. 10%).

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Gould calls Poilievre a ‘fraudster’ over his carbon price warning

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OTTAWA – Liberal House leader Karina Gould lambasted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a “fraudster” this morning after he said the federal carbon price is going to cause a “nuclear winter.”

Gould was speaking just before the House of Commons is set to reopen following the summer break.

“What I heard yesterday from Mr. Poilievre was so over the top, so irresponsible, so immature, and something that only a fraudster would do,” she said from Parliament Hill.

On Sunday Poilievre said increasing the carbon price will cause a “nuclear winter,” painting a dystopian picture of people starving and freezing because they can’t afford food or heat due the carbon price.

He said the Liberals’ obsession with carbon pricing is “an existential threat to our economy and our way of life.”

The carbon price currently adds about 17.6 cents to every litre of gasoline, but that cost is offset by carbon rebates mailed to Canadians every three months. The Parliamentary Budget Office provided analysis that showed eight in 10 households receive more from the rebates than they pay in carbon pricing, though the office also warned that long-term economic effects could harm jobs and wage growth.

Gould accused Poilievre of ignoring the rebates, and refusing to tell Canadians how he would make life more affordable while battling climate change. The Liberals have also accused the Conservatives of dismissing the expertise of more than 200 economists who wrote a letter earlier this year describing the carbon price as the least expensive, most efficient way to lower emissions.

Poilievre is pushing for the other opposition parties to vote the government down and trigger what he calls a “carbon tax election.”

The recent decision by the NDP to break its political pact with the government makes an early election more likely, but there does not seem to be an interest from either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to have it happen immediately.

Poilievre intends to bring a non-confidence motion against the government as early as this week but would likely need both the Bloc and NDP to support it.

Gould said she has no “crystal ball” over when or how often Poilievre might try to bring down the government

“I know that the end of the supply and confidence agreement makes things a bit different, but really all it does is returns us to a normal minority parliament,” she said. “And that means that we will work case-by-case, legislation-by-legislation with whichever party wants to work with us. I have already been in touch with all of the House leaders in the opposition parties and my job now is to make Parliament work for Canadians.”

She also insisted the government has listened to the concerns raised by Canadians, and received the message when the Liberals lost a Toronto byelection in June in seat the party had held since 1997.

“We certainly got the message from Toronto-St. Paul’s and have spent the summer reflecting on what that means and are coming back to Parliament, I think, very clearly focused on ensuring that Canadians are at the centre of everything that we do moving forward,” she said.

The Liberals are bracing, however, for the possibility of another blow Monday night, in a tight race to hold a Montreal seat in a byelection there. Voters in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun are casting ballots today to replace former justice minister David Lametti, who was removed from cabinet in 2023 and resigned as an MP in January.

The Conservatives and NDP are also in a tight race in Elmwood-Transcona, a Winnipeg seat that has mostly been held by the NDP over the last several decades.

There are several key bills making their way through the legislative process, including the online harms act and the NDP-endorsed pharmacare bill, which is currently in the Senate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Voters head to the polls for byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg

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OTTAWA – Canadians in two federal ridings are choosing their next member of Parliament today, and political parties are closely watching the results.

Winnipeg’s Elmwood —Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics.

The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running.

The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.

Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.

The Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in another byelection in Toronto earlier this summer, a loss that sent shock waves through the governing party and intensified calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Next phase of federal foreign interference inquiry to begin today in Ottawa

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OTTAWA – The latest phase of a federal inquiry into foreign interference is set to kick off today with remarks from commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue.

Several weeks of public hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and key government officials took part in hearings earlier this year as the inquiry explored allegations that Beijing tried to meddle in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

Hogue’s interim report, released in early May, said Beijing’s actions did not affect the overall results of the two general elections.

The report said while outcomes in a small number of ridings may have been affected by interference, this cannot be said with certainty.

Trudeau, members of his inner circle and senior security officials are slated to return to the inquiry in coming weeks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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