After shocking the hockey world by signing in Buffalo on a one-year, $8 million contract last October, Taylor Hall is set to become an unrestricted free agent after this season.
Based on how things are playing out in Buffalo, it seems likely that Hall will be traded. A big extension does not appear to be overly likely at this point. Currently at the bottom of the strongest division in the NHL, the Buffalo Sabres are nowhere near a playoff spot and they probably don’t want to let him walk for nothing.
Mired in a playoff drought since 2011, the Sabres have already gone through a brutal rebuild and they likely want players who can help them sooner rather than later as a result. They’re probably not solely focused on acquiring draft picks to add players who can help them three or four years from now. They want to improve their roster for next season in order to give Jack Eichel the best chance possible at making the playoffs.
That could mean the Leafs are perfect trading partners for the Sabres. They aren’t going to play the Leafs this year, but they could end up back in their division (or conference) next year. In short, they would be happy to make the Leafs better this season, if it means taking something away from them in future seasons.
The Sabres are also desperate for help at center behind Eichel, as Eric Staal is both 36 years old and a pending free agent. Let’s just say that the upcoming free-agent class is not loaded with high-end centers that are racing to sign in Buffalo.
Frank Seravalli of TSN spoke about Hall’s availability here:
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The key quotes in this video include:
“At this point, I don’t see a way that they don’t trade him at the deadline.”
“They may have to eat half of his $8 million salary in order to make it work.”
“I don’t think that a lot of teams around the league are thinking that Taylor Hall suddenly woke up, because of the situation in Buffalo, and forgot how to play hockey.”
Exploring a Hall for Kerfoot Trade
Photo: Canadian Press
Alex Kerfoot would be a great fit in Buffalo for three reasons:
The Leafs will need to send a contract back the other way if they acquired Hall. Kerfoot is pretty much the only player on the roster who would make any sense whatsoever.
Kerfoot’s deal was front-loaded, so he only makes $2.7 million per year in actual salary after this season.
He’s able to move to the wing if needed, so they have some flexibility if they want to play Dylan Cozens and someone else up the middle instead.
Kerfoot is under contract through the 2022-23 season and could help the Sabres immediately. They don’t have to wait for him to develop.
My guess is that Kerfoot carries a similar trade value as Andreas Johnsson, for whom the Leafs were offered a second-round pick before they ended up acquiring Joey Anderson instead. Knowing the Leafs would need the Sabres to retain close to 50% of Hall’s contract to make this deal work, Kerfoot’s trade value alone is probably not quite enough to get that done. However, the Leafs could certainly add a little bit extra to this trade to get it over the finish line.
Taylor Hall is a damn good player — there’s no doubt about that. He won the Hart Trophy, for crying out loud, and was the league’s MVP more recently than Connor McDavid. Draisaitl won last season, Kucherov won the season before, and Hall won in 2018 — this is not exactly ancient history. Hall is 29 and boasts 575 points in 647 career games.
I don’t want to hear the “he’s not a winner” garbage. He’s put up points during his limited NHL playoff sample. He won the Memorial Cup twice in junior. He’s won five gold medals for Canada. Zach Bogosian entered the league two years before him and had ZERO career playoff games before his Cup run with the Lightning last season. It’s not Hall’s fault that the Oilers completely wasted the first six years of his career before trading him to another below-average team. He also single-handedly got the 2017-18 New Jersey Devils into the playoffs.
Not to belabour the point, but have you seen the rosters of those Oilers teams? Check these out (I’ll wait):
Hockey is a team sport. If you want to yell that individual players are “not winners,” go watch tennis or golf. Everyone said Phil Kessel wasn’t a winner, and then guess what? He won. Everyone said Alexander Ovechkin wasn’t a winner, and then guess what? He won.
As Leafs fans know better than anyone, it’s hard to win a playoff round. It’s close to impossible to win a playoff round when you play on the teams that Hall has played on.
In his final season in Edmonton, the Oilers outscored their opponents 57 to 53 when Hall was on the ice at 5-on-5. When Hall wasn’t on the ice, they were outscored 76 to 115. The previous season, the Oilers outscored their opponents 36 to 34 when Hall was on the ice at 5-on-5. When Hall wasn’t on the ice, they were outscored 95 to 163 (!).
Hall then got traded to New Jersey, where the team outscored their opponents 38 to 35 when Hall was on the ice at 5-on-5 in his first season with the Devils. When Hall wasn’t on the ice, they were outscored 76 to 113.
I’m going to go ahead and guess that maybe Taylor Hall was not the problem.
How Good Is Taylor Hall?
Photo Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Pretty damn good.
Since entering the league in 2010, his 5-on-5 point-per-minute production is pretty much identical to John Tavares’. He ranks 21st in this category out of 266 forwards with 5000+ minutes at 5-on-5 over that time, ahead of players like Jonathan Huberdeau, Filip Forsberg, Tyler Seguin, Mark Scheifele, Alex Ovechkin, Claude Giroux, and Jack Eichel. Since leaving the Oilers, his 5-on-5 expected goals for percentage is 53.5%, which is extremely impressive, and just ahead of Matthews and Marner.
Since entering the league, he sits just behind Tavares in Evolving Hockey‘s goals above replacement and is actually ahead of him on a per-game basis. He’s a fair bit behind Tavares in terms of expected goals above replacement, but he is still comparable to great players like Gabriel Landeskog and Jakub Voracek. Yes, he only has two goals through 21 games this year, but his 1.9% shooting percentage clearly isn’t sustainable.
He’s an elite transition player and an elite takeaway specialist. He’s consistently graded out well by play-driving stats such as Evolving Hockey‘s RAPM. He’s played at a 7-point pace per 82 games over his career. He’s a first-line calibre, star forward who would have a chance to make Team Canada’s Olympic Team. Again, he won the Hart Trophy!
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Hall could make the Tavares and Nylander line a force to be reckoned with. Tavares is a complete beast down low in the offensive zone, and pairing him with two of the best transition players in the game would put him in a position to succeed. Opposing top defense pairings would likely matchup against Matthews and Marner, leaving the Hall-Tavares-Nylander line to beat up on weaker competition. There’s a real chance that Hall would be the best player on that line — he’s that good.
Personally, I wouldn’t play Hall on the third line, but even that could be quite fun. As mentioned above, when Hall comes off the ice, his team usually sends AHL calibre forwards out there who proceed to get completely dominated. With the Leafs, Sheldon Keefe could instead throw the Matthews-Marner and Tavares-Nylander duos out there when Hall is on the bench.
All Leafs fans are happy with the team’s current third line. I think Hall would make far more sense in the top-six, but having him drive his own line is always an option. He obviously carries quite a bit of experience with that.
Hall’s Weaknesses
Photo by Andre Ringuette/NHLI via Getty Images
Taylor Hall carries some pretty significant weaknesses, ones the Leafs will certainly need to be aware of:
1. Boating safety
I take boating safety very seriously. Hall struggles in this area. It’s also worth noting that the city of Toronto is situated on Lake Ontario. Boating can be a terrific team-building activity, but this is a major weakness for Hall.
Failed my boaters licence again. I’m a joke I just want my licence
Travel is a big part of an NHL player’s life. Because of this, fun games are often played to help pass the time. Hall clearly struggles with this game. Again, the Leafs will have to be aware of this.
Eberle & Hall in worst hangman game in history Ebs cant spell “banana” and hall cant figure out 2nd word is “split” Wow http://t.co/ReVHRQD5
The top rentals at the deadline tend to go for a first-round pick, plus another interesting prospect or two. Hall was actually traded as a rental last season, along with prospect Blake Speers, for a first-round pick, a third-round pick, Kevin Bahl, Nick Merkley, and Nate Schnarr. As part of the trade, the Devils retained 50% of his $6 million cap hit.
The price for Hall will be lower this time around for four reasons:
He’s one more year removed from his MVP season.
He’s off to a bit of a rough start in Buffalo, as he’s only scored two goals in 21 games thus far (though he has put 54 shots on goal).
The Coyotes paid a little bit extra to acquire him in mid-December last year, so he ended up playing 35 regular-season games in Arizona, even though the pandemic ended up cutting the season short. Hall would be more of a “true rental” this season, especially if he has to quarantine for 14 days.
It’s more of a buyer’s market this year, as some teams are not able to add salary due to their financial situations.
The Sabres would have to retain 50% of Hall’s cap hit in a trade with Toronto, just like the Devils did last season. As mentioned above, they would have to take Kerfoot back as well, but he probably has more value to them than a late first-round pick in a weak draft. In addition to Kerfoot, the Leafs have two young prospects in Filip Hallander and Joey Anderson who could possibly help the Sabres next season.
Kerfoot and Toronto’s 2021 first-round pick is probably enough to get a deal done. In fact, I actually think that’s a better package than what the Devils got for Hall last season. Perhaps the Leafs downgrade the first-round pick to a second-round pick and add in Hallander or Anderson instead. Given where the Sabres are at, I think they will be more interested in players and prospects rather than picks.
It’s also worth noting that Hall can control his own destiny as he possesses a full no-move clause. If he says that he’ll only accept a trade to a few teams, the Sabres don’t have much leverage here. If he says that he’s set on playing for Toronto, the Sabres might even settle for Kerfoot straight up. If he’s completely against going to a Canadian team due to the quarantine process, this deal is off the table completely. Hall has a lot of control here, but I’m willing to bet that he would jump at the opportunity to play in Toronto.
If other star forwards like Filip Forsberg, Johnny Gaudreau, or Tomas Hertl are available, the Leafs should certainly inquire about them. These players come with an extra year of control, and it’s worth paying a little bit extra for them as a result, even after considering the expansion draft implications. However, Hall is the most likely of this group to be moved and will cost the least. It’s easier to get a team to retain 50% of a player’s contract for half a season rather than next year as well.
Trading Kerfoot would hurt Toronto’s depth up the middle. They would be counting on Pierre Engvall to be their third-line center, and if he starts to struggle, the Leafs would have to find another alternative.
One option would be to move Travis Boyd up in the lineup and make Jason Spezza or Adam Brooks the fourth-line center. Another option could be to play Hall with Tavares, and make Nylander your third-line center. Joe Thornton carries plenty of experience at center as well and could always play there if needed. Alex Galchenyuk also has some experience at center, although that might be a bit of a long-shot at this point. Ultimately, I like the Hyman-Engvall-Mikheyev line so far and I’d be okay with taking the risk if it meant acquiring a player of Hall’s calibre.
Riley Sheahan could also be added to this deal to provide the Leafs with some extra depth. The 29-year-old isn’t much of a scorer, but he’s consistently posted strong defensive results by Evolving Hockey‘s RAPM over the years. He’ll be a free agent after this season, and given that he carries a $700k cap hit, the Leafs could simply put him on the taxi squad if he clears waivers.
Alternatively, the Leafs could always look to make another trade for a bottom-six center.
Final Thoughts
PHOTO BY IAN KUCERAK /Postmedia
We all know by now that the Leafs are looking to add a forward at the deadline, and they are probably willing to give up significant futures to do it. This is the best Leafs team that we’ve seen in years. They’re looking for a player who can make them an even bigger favourite to win the Canadian division come playoff time.
I like Mikael Granlund and I’m certainly interested in acquiring him, but Hall is simply a different calibre of player. The Leafs look great defensively, while their first line has been amazing up front. Pairing Hall on a line with Tavares and Nylander would make them a force to be reckoned with.
I don’t want to trade Nick Robertson, Rasmus Sandin, Rodion Amirov, or Timothy Liljegren for a rental. However, I don’t think you’ll have to give them up — it’s not like the Coyotes handed over Victor Soderstrom or Barrett Hayton for Hall last year. If they need to be included, I’d focus my attention elsewhere and talk to the Predators about Forsberg or Granlund. A package of Kerfoot and a first-round pick seems more than fair.
I’m not a big fan of trading for rentals at the deadline unless the team is really damn good. I would have strongly considered trading James van Riemsdyk in his final season in Toronto, rather than letting him walk for nothing, as I didn’t see that Leafs team as a true Cup contender. However, this isn’t the 2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs. This is a team that just shutout Connor McDavid for three straight games with three different goalies and didn’t miss a beat when Auston Matthews was out of the lineup.
I also don’t want to hear that the Leafs are “good enough.” There’s no such thing. I don’t care if Hall has to miss a handful of games due to the quarantine process. With Taylor Hall inserted into this lineup, this team will have an even better chance to make a deep playoff run.
The Leafs already have three former first overall picks in Auston Matthews, Joe Thornton, and John Tavares. Why not add one more?
It’s time to push the chips in for a serious shot at the Stanley Cup.
GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic fell 6-4, 6-3 to Poland’s Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open tennis tournament on Friday.
The 19-year-old from Mississauga, Ont., won 61 per cent of her first-serve points and broke on just one of her six opportunities.
Stakusic had upset top-seeded Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) on Thursday night to advance.
In the opening round, Stakusic defeated Slovakia’s Anna Karolína Schmiedlová 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday.
The fifth-seeded Frech won 62 per cent of her first-serve points and converted on three of her nine break point opportunities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Alejandro Kirk’s long single with the bases loaded provided the Toronto Blue Jays with a walk-off 4-3 win in the 11th inning of their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.
With the Cardinals outfield in, Kirk drove a shot off the base of the left-field wall to give the Blue Jays (70-78) their fourth win in 11 outings and halt the Cardinals’ (74-73) two-game win streak before 30,380 at Rogers Centre.
Kirk enjoyed a two-hit, two-RBI outing.
Erik Swanson (2-2) pitched a perfect 11th inning for the win, while Cardinals reliever Ryan Fernandez (1-5) took the loss.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman enjoyed a seven-inning, 104-pitch outing. He surrendered his two runs on nine hits and two walks and fanned only two Cardinals.
He gave way to reliever Genesis Cabrera, who gave up a one-out homer to Thomas Saggese, his first in 2024, that tied the game in the eighth.
The Cardinals started swiftly with four straight singles to open the game. But they exited the first inning with only two runs on an RBI single to centre from Nolan Arendao and a fielder’s choice from Saggese.
Gausman required 28 pitches to escape the first inning but settled down to allow his teammates to snatch the lead in the fourth.
He also deftly pitched out of threats from the visitors in the fifth, sixth and seventh thanks to some solid defence, including Will Wagner’s diving stop, which led to a double play to end the fifth inning.
George Springer led off with a walk and stole second base. He advanced to third on Nathan Lukes’s single and scored when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knocked in his 95th run with a double off the left-field wall.
Lukes scored on a sacrifice fly to left field from Spencer Horwitz. Guerrero touched home on Kirk’s two-out single to right.
In the ninth, Guerrero made a critical diving catch on an Arenado grounder to throw out the Cardinals’ infielder, with reliever Tommy Nance covering first. The defensive gem ended the inning with a runner on second base.
St. Louis starter Erick Fedde faced the minimum night batters in the first three innings thanks to a pair of double plays. He lasted five innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts.
ON DECK
Toronto ace Jose Berrios (15-9) will start the second of the three-game series on Saturday. He has a six-game win streak.
The Cardinals will counter with righty Kyle Gibson (8-6).
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
CALGARY – Mired in their first four-game losing skid in 20 years, the Calgary Stampeders are going back to Jake Maier at quarterback on Saturday after he was benched for a game.
It won’t be an easy assignment.
Visiting McMahon Stadium are the Eastern Conference-leading Montreal Alouettes (10-2) who own the CFL’s best record. The Stampeders (4-8) have fallen to last in the Western Conference.
“Six games is plenty of time, but also it is just six games,” said Maier. “We’ve got to be able to get on the right track.”
Calgary is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.
“I do still believe in this team,” said Stampeders’ head coach and general manager Dave Dickenson. “I want to see improvement, though. I want to see guys on a weekly basis elevating their game, and we haven’t been doing that.”
Maier is one of the guys under the microscope. Two weeks ago, the second-year starter threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Edmonton Elks.
After his replacement, rookie Logan Bonner, threw five picks in last week’s 37-16 loss to the Elks in Edmonton, the football is back in Maier’s hands.
“Any time you fail or something doesn’t go your way in life, does it stink in the moment? Yeah. But then the days go on and you learn things about yourself and you learn how to prepare a little bit better,” said Maier. “It makes you mentally tougher.”
Dickenson wants to see his quarterback making better decisions with the football.
“Things are going to happen, interceptions will happen, but try to take calculated risks, rather than just putting the ball up there and hoping that we catch it,” said Dickenson.
A former quarterback himself, he knows the importance of that vital position.
“You cannot win without good quarterback play,” Dickenson said. “You’ve got to be able to make some plays — off-schedule plays, move-around plays, plays that break down, plays that aren’t designed perfectly, but somehow you found the right guy, and then those big throws where you’re taking that hit.”
But it’s going to take a team effort, and that includes the club’s receiving corp.
“We always have to band together because we need everything to go right for our receivers to get the ball,” said Nik Lewis, the Stampeders’ receivers coach. “The running back has to pick up the blitz, the o-line has to block, the quarterback has to make the right reads, and then give us a catchable ball.”
Lewis brings a unique perspective to this season’s frustrations as he was a 22-year-old rookie in Calgary in 2004 when the Stamps went 4-14 under coach Matt Dunigan. They turned it around the next season and haven’t missed the playoffs since.”
“Thinking back and just looking at it, there’s just got to be an ultimate belief that you can get it done. Look at Montreal, they were 6-7 last year and they’ve gone 18-2 since then,” said Lewis.
Montreal is also looking to rebound from a 37-23 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. But for head coach Jason Maas, he says his team’s mindset doesn’t change, regardless of what happened the previous week.
“Last year when we went through a four-game losing streak, you couldn’t tell if we were on a four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak by the way the guys were in the building, the way we prepared, the type of work ethic we have,” said Maas. “All our standards are set, so that’s all we focus on.”
While they may have already clinched a playoff spot, Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo says this closing stretch remains critical because they want to finish the season strong, just like last year when they won their final five regular-season games before ultimately winning the Grey Cup.
“It doesn’t matter about what you do at the beginning of the year,” said Fajardo. “All that matters is how you end the year and how well you’re playing going into the playoffs so that’s what these games are about.”
The Alouettes’ are kicking off a three-game road stretch, one Fajardo looks forward to.
“You understand what kind of team you have when you play on the road because it’s us versus the world mentality and you can feel everybody against you,” said Fajardo. “Plus, I always tend to find more joy in silencing thousands of people than bringing thousands of people to their feet.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
