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EIA OPEC Cuts To Lift Oil Prices Through April – OilPrice.com

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Charles Kennedy

Charles Kennedy

Charles is a writer for Oilprice.com

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Oil prices will likely remain at the current high levels in March and April, with Brent Crude prices averaging between $65 and $70 per barrel, after the OPEC+ group unexpectedly decided to maintain their production cuts into April, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for March, the EIA expects Brent prices to average $65 to $70 per barrel in March and April, more than $10 a barrel above the forecast from February, primarily due to OPEC+ keeping a tight rein on production in April.

Earlier this month, the OPEC+ alliance decided not to raise production from April, except for small increases for Russia and Kazakhstan, while top OPEC producer and de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, is keeping its extra 1 million bpd cut into April. This was contrary to market expectations which had revolved around the group easing the cuts by 500,000 bpd and the Saudis reversing the additional cut.

For the second quarter of 2021, the EIA sees Brent prices averaging $64 per barrel and then averaging $58 a barrel in the second half of 2021, as it expects downward price pressures will emerge in the coming months as the oil market becomes more balanced.

Wood Mackenzie expects oil prices to rise toward $70-$75 per barrel during April, with the stock draw significantly more than 1 million bpd next month, as the summer demand season looms.

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“The risk is these higher prices will dampen the tentative global recovery. But the Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz, is adamant OPEC+ must watch for concrete signs of a demand rise before he moves on production,” Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said after the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month.

Following the surprise OPEC+ decision to keep oil production flat in April, Goldman Sachs now sees Brent prices hitting $80 a barrel in the third quarter this year and $75 in the second quarter, up by $5 compared to the previous forecast issued just two weeks prior.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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