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As wave after wave of COVID-19 crashes over us, the hope is that we’ll eventually reach a point where seasonality of the virus will make the pandemic easier to predict and ride out.
But with highly contagious new variants emerging and driving surges around the world at different times — will we reach a regular “COVID season” anytime soon?
The pandemic hasn’t followed a clear-cut pattern in Canada, with waves hitting erratically in the spring, fall and winter over the past two and a half years, largely due to public health measures lifting and new variants threatening immunity from vaccines and prior infections.
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Different variants have also caught countries off guard at unexpected times (and sometimes missed them altogether), making it increasingly challenging for us to predict when and where COVID waves would hit next.
“Let’s be honest, the virus is in control here, not us,” said Dr. Michael Gardam, an infectious diseases physician, medical director of infection prevention and control at Women’s College Hospital in Toronto and CEO of Health PEI.
“We’re entirely at the whim of whatever random evolutionary events occur and it’s really hard to predict.”
Different countries, different waves
Canada currently has a nasty mix of Omicron subvariants — including BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1 and BA.2.3 — fuelling an ongoing sixth wave after public health measures were widely lifted, despite over 80 per cent of Canadians vaccinated and close to half the population infected.
“It is going to get increasingly difficult to compare countries … and honestly even before this it was kind of hard,” said University of Arizona immunologist Deepta Bhattacharya.
“The Alpha wave really nailed the U.K. and it didn’t really here and I don’t know why that is. It certainly got introduced here and it didn’t spread to the same extent and I have no idea why. So there’s all sorts of stuff that makes it very difficult to understand and predict.”
People walk through Toronto’s Chinatown neighbourhood in March 2021. Canada currently has a nasty mix of Omicron subvariants fuelling an ongoing sixth wave after public health measures were widely lifted. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
Population immunity could blunt future waves
Another factor that’s hard to predict is just how population immunity will change — and whether prior infections and high vaccination rates will protect, or wane over time.
Tulio de Oliveira, the director of South Africa’s Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation, said South Africa has had a high level of population immunity with over 90 per cent estimated to have been previously infected, vaccinated or both.
“That’s one of the reasons why we believe that the big Omicron wave that we had didn’t translate to a very high number of hospitalizations and deaths,” he said.
“And BA.2, despite emerging and going on to dominate all the infections in South Africa, did not translate into an uptick of infection, which was very different in Europe, where they had a BA.1 wave followed by a BA.2 wave.”
That double whammy of Omicron’s BA.1 and BA.2 hit Canada hard as well, fuelling a devastating fifth wave late last year that subsided right as BA.2 sparked a smaller sixth wave in April — but it also drove up our levels of population immunity.
“It gives you a sense that the more people who are infected with this and are vaccinated, the better you are at weathering it,” said Gardam.
“The hope is it starts to become like the other coronaviruses that infect us every year that cause colds … and eventually it’s pretty hard for the virus to come up with something so novel that you haven’t seen part of it before.”
Previously, Canada was more in line with a country like South Korea given our high vaccination rates and previously low levels of prior infection, de Oliveira said, with much of the country seeing relatively low levels of COVID throughout the pandemic.
With Omicron, we were more similar to countries like South Africa and the U.S. with much higher levels of population immunity — but our high vaccination rate protected us.
“What that means is that potentially as new variants and subvariants of Omicron emerge … that may translate in a relatively high number of infections, but potentially not in a very high rate of hospitalization and death,” he said.
“Look at wave one, it was a very small wave but there were a lot of hospitalizations,” said Gardam. “Then finally Omicron hit and the spike in infections was insane, but the death rate never got as high as it did in earlier waves. So we are getting better at fighting this off.”
WATCH | Canadians urged to get COVID-19 booster shots to fight 6th wave:
Canadians urged to get COVID-19 booster shots to blunt 6th wave
18 days ago
Duration 2:00
All signs indicate Canada is going through a sixth pandemic wave, Dr. Theresa Tam confirms. Her message to Canadians: wear a mask and get boosted if eligible. 2:00
Gardam said the difference between provinces like Prince Edward Island and Ontario throughout the pandemic is that the Maritime provinces that took a COVID zero approach had little pre-existing immunity over the last two years.
But when Omicron hit in December, it exploited the province’s lack of population immunity.
“It was just like bang, here it is,” he said. “And it’s still going through the population and yet we had stricter measures than Ontario and other provinces did, but they had all these different waves going through that we didn’t have.”
How will we get to ‘COVID season’ with variants constantly emerging?
While it’s unclear if Canada’s newfound levels of population immunity and consistently high vaccination rates will fend off future waves of the virus and get us closer to seasonality, there are early hints from other countries that we may be able to better predict waves going forward.
Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at Belgium’s KU Leuven University said on Twitter that South Africa is starting to show signs of seasonality with COVID, which could look like “a significant wave every six months with significant mortality and morbidity.”
The BA.4 & BA.5 Omicron subvariant-driven increase of new confirmed Covid cases in South Africa gives a good idea of what the endemic equilibrium will look like: a significant wave every 6 months with significant mortality & morbidity. ???? <a href=”https://t.co/I9jd5gMIPG”>pic.twitter.com/I9jd5gMIPG</a>
“The impact on the healthcare system of both BA.2.12.1 and BA.4 and BA.5 is really not clear yet. They will cause waves of infections, for sure, but the impact on hospitalizations & expected mortality cannot yet be estimated at this time,” he told CBC News.
“The early data would seem to suggest similar severity as original Omicron in terms of case hospitalization ratio … but this is really early days to infer this.”
de Oliveira, who led the research team that identified subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa, said waning immunity from infection and vaccination could factor into their spread.
“The only thing that may play a role in that is just the timing of the BA.1 wave, and that’s why we are looking very carefully at the data,” he said.
“We are talking about three or four months past the peak of BA.1 and we know around three or four months is when the population immunity starts decreasing.”
A new preprint study co-authored by de Oliveira, which has not yet been peer reviewed, suggested there could be “growth advantages” for BA.4 and BA.5 over BA.2 in South Africa that could potentially spark another wave, but whether that will happen there or in other countries remains to be seen.
And more variants are likely on the horizon.
“That just seems to be the behaviour of SARS-CoV-2 and I think that we shouldn’t be shocked when we see another variant,” said Alyson Kelvin, a virologist at the Canadian Center for Vaccinology and the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization in Saskatoon.
“But also keep planning for them, unfortunately, which I think, impacts our vaccination strategies … by the time you roll [an updated vaccine] out there’s a new variant.”
People brave the snow to lineup for COVID-19 testing in early January in Vancouver. Canada’s chaotic COVID wave pattern hasn’t shown major signs of seasonal transmission yet, but there are some indications we could eventually get there. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
While Canada’s chaotic COVID wave pattern hasn’t shown major signs of seasonality yet, there are some indications we’re moving towards it.
“There still is seasonality associated with COVID. It doesn’t mean that it’s a perfect fit, but of course there are times during the colder months in Canada where we see more cases,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases physician at Toronto General Hospital.
“Hopefully this wave will subside and we have a great summer ahead of us …. but can that be disrupted with a very transmissible variant? Maybe. It might.”
Gardam said if we look long-term at other viruses like H1N1, the flu strain that started the 1918 pandemic, we can expect COVID-19 to circulate for many years now that eliminating it altogether isn’t possible — but it likely won’t cause anywhere near the same level of illness.
“I have to assume that 20 years from now, there will be remnants of this coronavirus around that we get infected with regularly,” he said. “But it’s just not a big deal anymore.”
CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — A linebacker at Division II West Virginia State was fatally shot during what the university said Thursday is being investigated by police as a home invasion.
The body of Jyilek Zyiare Harrington, 21, of Charlotte, North Carolina, was found inside an apartment Wednesday night in Charleston, police Lt. Tony Hazelett said in a statement.
Hazelett said several gunshots were fired during a disturbance in a hallway and inside the apartment. The statement said Harrington had multiple gunshot wounds and was pronounced dead at the scene. Police said they had no information on a possible suspect.
West Virginia State said counselors were available to students and faculty on campus.
“Our thoughts and prayers are with Jyilek’s family as they mourn the loss of this incredible young man,” West Virginia State President Ericke S. Cage said in a letter to students and faculty.
Harrington, a senior, had eight total tackles, including a sack, in a 27-24 win at Barton College last week.
“Jyilek truly embodied what it means to be a student-athlete and was a leader not only on campus but in the community,” West Virginia State Vice President of Intercollegiate Athletics Nate Burton said. “Jyilek was a young man that, during Christmas, would create a GoFundMe to help less fortunate families.”
Burton said donations to a fund established by the athletic department in Harrington’s memory will be distributed to an organization in Charlotte to continue his charity work.
West Virginia State’s home opener against Carson-Newman, originally scheduled for Thursday night, has been rescheduled to Friday, and a private vigil involving both teams was set for Thursday night. Harrington previously attended Carson-Newman, where he made seven tackles in six games last season. He began his college career at Division II Erskine College.
“Carson-Newman joins West Virginia State in mourning the untimely passing of former student-athlete Jyilek Harrington,” Carson-Newman Vice President of Athletics Matt Pope said in a statement. “The Harrington family and the Yellow Jackets’ campus community is in our prayers. News like this is sad to hear anytime, but today it feels worse with two teams who knew him coming together to play.”
DETROIT (AP) — Joe Schmidt, the Hall of Fame linebacker who helped the Detroit Lions win NFL championships in 1953 and 1957 and later coached the team, has died. He was 92.
The Lions said family informed the team Schmidt died Wednesday. A cause of death was not provided.
One of pro football’s first great middle linebackers, Schmidt played his entire NFL career with the Lions from 1953-65. An eight-time All-Pro, he was enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1973 and the college football version in 2000.
“Joe likes to say that at one point in his career, he was 6-3, but he had tackled so many fullbacks that it drove his neck into his shoulders and now he is 6-foot,” said the late Lions owner William Clay Ford, Schmidt’s presenter at his Hall of Fame induction in 1973. “At any rate, he was listed at 6-feet and as I say was marginal for that position. There are, however, qualities that certainly scouts or anybody who is drafting a ballplayer cannot measure.”
Born in Pittsburgh, Schmidt played college football in his hometown at Pitt, beginning his stint there as a fullback and guard before coach Len Casanova switched him to linebacker.
“Pitt provided me with the opportunity to do what I’ve wanted to do, and further myself through my athletic abilities,” Schmidt said. “Everything I have stemmed from that opportunity.”
Schmidt dealt with injuries throughout his college career and was drafted by the Lions in the seventh round in 1953. As defenses evolved in that era, Schmidt’s speed, savvy and tackling ability made him a valuable part of some of the franchise’s greatest teams.
Schmidt was elected to the Pro Bowl 10 straight years from 1955-64, and after his arrival, the Lions won the last two of their three NFL titles in the 1950s.
In a 1957 playoff game at San Francisco, the Lions trailed 27-7 in the third quarter before rallying to win 31-27. That was the NFL’s largest comeback in postseason history until Buffalo rallied from a 32-point deficit to beat Houston in 1993.
“We just decided to go after them, blitz them almost every down,” Schmidt recalled. “We had nothing to lose. When you’re up against it, you let both barrels fly.”
Schmidt became an assistant coach after wrapping up his career as a player. He was Detroit’s head coach from 1967-72, going 43-35-7.
Schmidt was part of the NFL’s All-Time Team revealed in 2019 to celebrate the league’s centennial season. Of course, he’d gone into the Hall of Fame 46 years earlier.
Not bad for an undersized seventh-round draft pick.
“It was a dream of mine to play football,” Schmidt told the Detroit Free Press in 2017. “I had so many people tell me that I was too small. That I couldn’t play. I had so many negative people say negative things about me … that it makes you feel good inside. I said, ‘OK, I’ll prove it to you.’”
VICTORIA – British Columbia‘s Environment Assessment Office has fined Coastal GasLink Pipeline Ltd. $590,000 for “deficiencies” in the construction of its pipeline crossing the province.
The office says in a statement that 10 administrative penalties have been levied against the company for non-compliance with requirements of its environmental assessment certificate.
It says the fines come after problems with erosion and sediment control measures were identified by enforcement officers along the pipeline route across northern B.C. in April and May 2023.
The office says that the latest financial penalties reflect its escalation of enforcement due to repeated non-compliance of its requirements.
Four previous penalties have been issued for failing to control erosion and sediment valued at almost $800,000, while a fifth fine of $6,000 was handed out for providing false or misleading information.
The office says it prioritized its inspections along the 670-kilometre route by air and ground as a result of the continued concerns, leading to 59 warnings and 13 stop-work orders along the pipeline that has now been completed.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
