Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 87 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts over the seven days ending on April 25.
Economy
Oil prices drift down on renewed economy concerns: Kemp
The combined position fell to 447 million barrels (23rd percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 534 million barrels (38th percentile) seven days earlier.
The ratio of bullish long to bearish short positions fell to 3.52:1 (39th percentile) from 5.00:1 (64th percentile) a week before.
Chartbook: Oil and gas positions
Heightened fears about a business cycle slowdown hitting petroleum consumption overwhelmed any residual bullishness stemming from the OPEC+ production cut announced on April 2.
Funds held a net position in middle distillates of just 7 million barrels (21st percentile) and bullish longs outnumbered bearish shorts by just 1.13:1 (21st percentile) on April 25.
Persistent inflation, increasing corporate layoffs, and heightened caution around spending by businesses and households signal a further slowdown in the business cycle over the next few months.
U.S. NATURAL GAS
Investors also tempered their recent optimism about U.S. gas prices as inventories continued to swell faster than normal for the time of year despite very low prices.
The position slipped to 12 billion cubic feet net short (31st percentile for all weeks since 2006) from 87 billion cubic feet net long (34th percentile) a week earlier.
The ratio of bullish long to bearish short positions slipped to 1.00:1 (31st percentile) from 1.03:1 (34th percentile) the previous week.
Inventories continue tracking much higher than normal despite ultra-low prices fostering more consumption and the re-starting of the Freeport LNG export terminal.
Stocks were 280 billion cubic feet (+16% or +0.61 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on April 21, up from a deficit of 263 billion cubic feet (-8% or -0.98 standard deviations) on Jan. 1.
Stocks have continued to swell even though inflation-adjusted prices are in the 3rd percentile for all days since 1990, a signal that there is a persistent production surplus that will necessitate a further slowdown in drilling.
Related columns:
– Oil market has absorbed surprise production cut by OPEC⁺ (April 26, 2023)
– Oil buying slows amid renewed concerns about economy (April 24, 2023)
– Oil prices stall as short-covering rally is completed (April 17, 2023) John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own (Editing by Mark Potter)
Economy
S&P/TSX composite gains almost 100 points, U.S. stock markets also higher
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Economy
Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Economy
S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets mixed
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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