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Here’s how the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hike to 5 per cent will impact Canadian households

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The Bank of Canada has just hiked its interest rate by another 25 points to five per cent — the second quarter-point hike since June’s interest rate increase to 4.75 per cent. The central bank has been steadily increasing interest rates over the past three years in an effort to tame inflation.

While inflation is finally levelling out — June’s inflation rate was 3.4 per cent, the lowest since it peaked at 8.1 per cent in June 2022 — it still remains higher than the central bank’s two per cent target.

One of the reasons prices are now falling is because the economic impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine has been fading over the past few months. Downward trends in the price of raw materials and industrial prices are also playing a role.

The Canadian economy grew at 3.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, fuelled by strong growth in household spending on services. Healthy economic growth goes hand-in-hand with job creation, leading to tighter labour markets where job openings are plentiful but available workers are scarce.

The labour market has remained tight despite the unemployment rate increasing by two points to 5.4 in June. However, the unemployment rate is still below the pre-pandemic average of 5.7 per cent.

Mortgage owners beware

For businesses and households, the latest interest rate increase means an increase to the prime rate, which is the interest rate banks charge their customers with. The current prime rate is 6.95 per cent, up from 3.70 per cent in June 2022.

Homeowners with variable mortgage rates and terms about to expire will feel the most pain from the rate hike. At higher interest rates, borrowers need to allocate a larger share of their disposable income to debt, leaving less for spending on food and other household necessities.

While the mortgage interest rates have been a significant contributor to the rise in the cost of living, grocery prices have remained high, rising by nine per cent year-over-year this past May.

The Bank of Canada in Ottawa.
The Bank of Canada in Ottawa. Photo by SEAN KILPATRICK/THE CANADIAN PRESS FILES

Fortunately, price growth has slowed for some categories, such as durable goods which includes automobiles and furniture. And the price of cellular services has decreased by 8.2 per cent over the past year.

On a more positive note, Canadian households, and the housing market, have remained resilient despite some fluctuations over the past year.

According to a recent Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) report, the number of mortgages in arrears has remained low despite more households being worried about making mortgage payments on time. The relatively low number of mortgages in arrears is reflective of the financial stability and resiliency of Canadian households.

Coping with higher mortgage rates

One way Canadians have been coping with higher mortgage rates is with choosing shorter-term fixed-rate mortgages. Fixed-rate terms between one and five years have become the preferred choice, reflecting borrower expectations that the interest rates will fall within the next few years.

In fact, less than 15 per cent of new mortgages are locked in for fixed-rate five year terms, and less than 20 per cent are variable rate. Prior to August 2022, fixed-rate terms of five years or longer were the preferred choice for mortgage borrowers.
Another way households are coping with higher interest rates is by increasing amortization periods — the length of time people have to pay back a loan — to reduce monthly debt servicing costs. Extending amortization periods can prevent homeowners from missing mortage payments.

Over the past year, amortization periods greater than 25 years have become increasingly common. In the fourth quarter of 2022, for example, 60 per cent of mortgages were amortized over more than 25 years, compared to 50 per cent three years prior.

With the interest rate hike, this trend is expected to continue as households facing higher mortgage payments look for ways to reduce their monthly expenditures. When the interest rates fall, the trend is expected to reverse.

Credit and loans

Those with secured or unsecured lines of credit will also be impacted by the rate increase, since the interest rates for those products are directly related to the prime rate.

Finder, a financial comparison website, reports an average interest rate of 6.37 per cent for secured personal line of credit and 9.83 per cent for unsecured line of credit, with precise rates varying with credit scores and personal characteristics.

Credit card interest rates that average close to 19.99 per cent are not typically affected by changes in the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.

Those taking out a new automobile loan will also face higher interest rates. Most automobile loans are fixed rate, so those in need of refinancing or renegotiating their loans are likely to be impacted.

Smoother roads ahead?

While the downward trend in inflation suggests the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes may be soon coming to an end, we can expect the current interest rate to remain constant at least for the rest of the year.

The next inflation update will be announced on July 18.

At this point, it appears that the Canadian economy has picked up enough momentum this year to dodge a recession. We can expect both inflation and interest rates to soften in 2024.

 

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Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

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TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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