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Trans Mountain pipeline project clears another major hurdle toward completion

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The Canada Energy Regulator has given an 11th-hour green light to the over-budget, federally-owned Trans Mountain pipeline, currently under construction in Western Canada.

In a ruling posted to its website late Friday, the regulator gave its blessing to the pipeline giant to change its routing methodology in a 2.3-kilometre stretch of construction in B.C.’s Fraser Valley.

Trans Mountain’s engineers had initially applied to the regulator to dig a 36-inch pipe through a stretch of mountainous terrain near Hope, B.C. However, the company later discovered that hard rock formations would make boring through a pipe that wide very challenging.

Last fall, the company applied to the regulator to reduce the pipe size to 30 inches, a move its engineers said would not impede the flow of oil gushing through the pipeline.

The regulator, for its part, initially rejected that application, citing unconvincing evidence from the company that the alteration would ensure the integrity of the pipe and the oil flowing through it.

“The Commission of the Canada Energy Regulator has determined that Trans Mountain did not adequately address concerns about pipeline integrity and related environmental protection impacts,” the regulator cited in its reasons for rejecting the application.

This prompted Trans Mountain to issue a particularly stern warning – that refusing to grant it permission to drill a smaller pipe would lead to a “catastrophic” two-year delay and billions of losses as a result.

On Friday, Trans Mountain’s lawyer, Sander Duncanson, appeared at a hearing before the Canadian Energy Regulator in Calgary to argue that the company had taken all the necessary steps to ensure that the pipe size variance would be safe and built to stringent standards.

“The commission must be mindful that every day counts now,” Duncanson told the commissioners.

Upon hearing reassurances from Trans Mountain, the regulator agreed with the company’s second, updated application.

Growing debt, and delays

The pipeline, purchased for $4.7 billion from a Texas energy giant by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government in 2018, has incurred an additional $31 billion in construction costs. This puts the current overall cost of the project’s acquisition and construction at $35 billion.

Last month, on the Friday before Christmas, an additional $2 billion in commercial loan guarantees was announced on Export Development Canada’s website. This loan guarantee pushes the total amount of government-backed loans provided to Trans Mountain by a group of Canadian banks up to $18 billion.

This is on top of an additional $16.5 billion in debt charged to the federal government’s “Canada Account.”

Robyn Allan, an independent economist whose decade-long costing calculations have demonstrated remarkable accuracy, told Global News the additional $2 billion in loan guarantees was because Trans Mountain knew it needed more money, beyond the $35 billion already incurred to acquire and build the project, to get the job done.

“They know they’re not going to have enough to get them through now, they went out and borrowed another $2 billion,” she said.

The feds have backstopped other major infrastructure projects in Canada to the tune of billions. For example, Ottawa gave the massively over-budget Lower Churchill Hydroelectric project in Labrador loan guarantees on $9.2 billion in bond debt borrowed from 2013 to 2017, debt which is still owing.

But Trans Mountain’s case is precarious, Allan and other experts Global News spoke with say, because the company will only be able to pay off the debts with tolls, or fees, it charges shippers to pump oil through the line. And, as it stands, the fees currently approved to be charged to those oil companies will only cover about half the cost of the pipeline.

Pipeline Prospects

Not all analysts are sour on the pipeline’s prospects.

Last June, Bank of Nova Scotia analyst Robert Hope published a report estimating that Trans Mountain might generate a profit (before interest and taxes) of $2.4 billion in 2025 and $2.6 billion in 2026 as oil starts gushing from Alberta to an ocean port in Burnaby, B.C.

The analyst suggested Trans Mountain was worth $26 to $29 billion.

Stephen Ellis, a strategist with Morningstar, a financial services firm, believes the line is “very much needed” to move Canadian crude to tidewater. But, he estimates the pipeline’s maximum value at no more than $15 billion.

This, Ellis says, means a massive write-off from the federal government is in the cards — which, ultimately, would be borne by Canadian taxpayers.

“If this were a private firm,” he told Global News, “we […] would not necessarily be in the situation that we are now because I doubt that a private firm would have underwritten this level of valuation and this level of financial spending.”

Circuitous, costly road for Trans Mountain

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Trans Mountain has cited a number of reasons, from supply chain challenges and soaring inflation to less productive rookie, “green-hand” labourers and unforeseen weather events, as reasons behind the massive cost overruns.

On Friday, the energy regulator’s commissioners alluded to the fact that it’s taken a decade, and billions in unforeseen construction costs, to get the job done.

But the pipeline company’s lawyer, Duncanson, cited the complexity of building an 1,100-kilometre pipeline as a reason for the “unforeseen” events.

Nonetheless, the expansion project’s final price tag will almost certainly be more than $35 billion — once the final construction bill, and debt servicing costs, which Allan estimates in the range of $2 billion a year once oil starts following, are taken into account.

In April 2022, Ottawa agreed to defer the interest payments on Trans Mountain’s debt so that the company could stay solvent and finish the job. In accounting terms, this is known as “interest in kind.”

But once the loan terms are up in August 2025, incidentally, just weeks before an anticipated federal election, that interest debt will need to be paid back, in addition to the $31 billion in construction loans.

“As soon as that project’s operating, they can no longer [defer the interest],” Allan says.

“So that $2 billion in interest [costs] we’re talking about will have to become an expense.”

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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