In Estonia, they’re talking about building more public bomb shelters and making them mandatory in all newly constructed homes.
In neighbouring Latvia, the government is going through the second draft of mandatory military service legislation. Next door in Lithuania, there’s talk of universal conscription.
“I understand that when we speak from the Baltic perspective, it might sound somewhat dramatic and shocking,” Viktorija Cmilyte-Nielsen, the speaker of the Seimas, Lithuania’s legislature, told CBC News Monday in Ottawa.
“It is obvious that today, democracy itself, democratic countries, democracies all around the world are under pressure from Russia and its autocratic allies.”
Since the beginning of 2024, security warnings in Europe about Russia’s future intentions have been landing fast and furious.
And they’ve come in different forms and from different officials — many of whom are known best for their discretion and lack of hysteria.
These warnings are being driven in part by Russia’s stated plans to put defence and munitions production on a war footing — something western nations, and Canada in particular, have struggled to accomplish in their efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion.
Many observers wonder whether the security warnings are even being heard by Ukraine’s allies, especially Canada and the United States.
Two weeks ago in Sweden, a political debate erupted after the country’s two top defence officials warned that war could be on the horizon. Sweden’s Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin and its military commander-in-chief Gen. Micael Byden said people should prepare mentally for the possibility — and begin stocking up on supplies.
A land war in Western Europe?
The head of the British Army, Gen. Sir Patrick Sanders, said in a recent speech that the United Kingdom should train a “citizen army” and be ready to fight a war on land in the future.
Three parliamentary speakers from the Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are the latest to deliver fresh warnings about how prepared western nations are for the prospect of an even bigger conflict in Europe.
They visited Ottawa on Monday and met with senior government officials before heading to Washington for more meetings.
Lauri Hussar (left), speaker of the Estonian legislature; Daiga Mierina, speaker of the Latvian parliament and Viktorija Cmilyte-Nielsen (right), speaker of the Lithuanian legislature visited Ottawa on Monday, Jan. 29, 2024 to meet with senior Canadian government officials. (CBC News)
Daiga Mierina, the speaker of Latvia’s legislature, said that because Baltic nations were occupied by the Soviet Union, they have a decidedly more visceral approach to the threat posed by the Kremlin and can “very clearly see what we can expect from Russia.
“We understand Russia differently.”
The speaker of Estonia’s legislature said building up public resilience in western nations starts with understanding that an information war is already underway.
“This is really important in a moment because it’s full-scale war and [that’s what] underlies the online attacks in social media and elsewhere,” said Lauri Hussar.
Whether these warnings are registering in western countries is debatable. Opposition politicians in Sweden described the warning from the defence chief as alarmist.
Former Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson told Swedish TV that while the world’s security situation is serious, “it is not as if war is just outside the door.”
Since many defence experts say the professional Russian Army that started the war in Ukraine has been virtually destroyed, there’s a kernel of truth to Andersson’s argument.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with service members involved in Russia’s war on Ukraine at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow, on January 1, 2024. (Kristina Kormilitsyna/Reuters)
But Moscow has an ambitious rebuilding plan. Russia’s military spending in 2024 will increase to 7.1 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) and will account for 35 per cent of total government spending, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
What’s needed in the West, in addition to ramped-up production, is a shift in mindset, said Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, chair of NATO’s Military Council.
“I think a nation needs to understand that when it comes to a war, as we see in Ukraine, it is a whole-of-society event,” Bauer said recently following a meeting of NATO chiefs of defence staff.
Ukrainian women assemble military drones at the drone manufacturer Atlas Aerospace in the capital Riga, Latvia, Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023. (Sergei Grits/AP)
The West, he said, has for decades been labouring under the belief that “the professional military … would solve these security issues that we had in Afghanistan in Iraq.”
That approach isn’t good enough any longer, he said.
“You will need more people from society to sustain the military in terms of people,” he said. “You need the industry to have enough ammunition to produce new tanks, new ships, new aircraft, new artillery pieces. All that is part of this discussion of a whole-of-society event.
“I think more people need to understand it’s not just something of the armed forces and money. We need to be readier across the whole spectrum.”
When asked about the recent comments in Sweden during an interview with CBC News last week, Defence Minister Bill Blair said the rising alarm in Europe is totally understandable, given the proximity to the threat.
He insisted Canadians understand that their way of life, and the rules under which western nations have operated for decades, are at stake.
Why Russia’s 2024 election actually matters
Vladimir Putin is officially in the running for his fifth term in office ahead of next spring’s Russian elections, solidifying his hold on power until at least 2030. In a race where the winner is almost guaranteed, Putin will be re-elected in March — but what could he lose in the process? CORRECTION (Dec. 14, 2023): A previous version of this video incorrectly stated at 3:56 that Dmitry Medvedev is Russia’s current prime minister. In fact, he held that role until 2020. The video has been edited to remove this part.
“We’ve always been a country that stood up [for] those rules and those principles and we’re going to continue to do so,” Blair said.
But do Canadian leaders truly share that sense of urgency felt across much of Europe?
Last fall, a House of Commons committee heard about a critical shortage of artillery ammunition, notably the NATO standard 155 millimetre shells. Unlike its allies, Canada has not signed an agreement with munition-makers to radically boost production.
OTTAWA – The New Democrats confirmed Thursday they won’t help Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives topple the government next week, and intend to join the Bloc Québécois in blocking the Tories’ non-confidence motion.
The planned votes from the Bloc and the New Democrats eliminate the possibility of a snap election, buying the Liberals more time to govern after a raucous start to the fall sitting of Parliament.
Poilievre issued a challenge to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh earlier this week when he announced he will put forward a motion that simply states that the House has no confidence in the government or the prime minister.
If it were to pass, it would likely mean Canadians would be heading to the polls, but Singh said Thursday he’s not going to let Poilievre tell him what to do.
Voting against the Conservative motion doesn’t mean the NDP support the Liberals, said Singh, who pulled out of his political pact with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a few weeks ago.
“I stand by my words, Trudeau has let you down,” Singh said in the foyer outside of the House of Commons Thursday.
“Trudeau has let you down and does not deserve another chance.”
Canadians will have to make that choice at the ballot box, Singh said, but he will make a decision about whether to help trigger that election on a vote-by-vote basis in the House.
The Conservatives mocked the NDP during Question Period for saying they had “ripped up” the deal to support the Liberals, despite plans to vote to keep them in power.
Poilievre accused Singh of pretending to pull out of the deal to sway voters in a federal byelection in Winnipeg, where the NDP was defending its long-held seat against the Conservatives.
“Once the votes were counted, he betrayed them again. He’s a fake, a phoney and fraud. How can anyone ever believe what the sellout NDP leader says in the future?” Poilievre said during Question Period Thursday afternoon.
At some point after those comments, Singh stepped out from behind his desk in the House and a two-minute shouting match ensued between the two leaders and their MPs before the Speaker intervened.
Outside the House, Poilievre said he plans to put forward another non-confidence motion at the next opportunity.
“We want a carbon-tax election as soon as possible, so that we can axe Trudeau’s tax before he quadruples it to 61 cents a litre,” he said.
Liberal House leader Karina Gould says there is much work the government still needs to do, and that Singh has realized the consequences of potentially bringing down the government. She refused to take questions about whether her government will negotiate with opposition parties to ensure their support in future confidence motions.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet hasn’t ruled out voting no-confidence in the government the next time a motion is tabled.
“I never support Liberals. Help me God, I go against the Conservatives on a vote that is only about Pierre Poilievre and his huge ambition for himself,” Blanchet said Thursday.
“I support the interests of Quebecers, if those interests are also good for Canadians.”
A Bloc bill to increase pension cheques for seniors aged 65 to 74 is now at “the very centre of the survival of this government,” he said.
The Bloc needs a recommendation from a government minister to OK the cost and get the bill through the House.
The Bloc also wants to see more protections for supply management in the food sector in Canada and Quebec.
If the Liberals can’t deliver on those two things, they will fall, Blanchet said.
“This is what we call power,” he said.
Treasury Board President Anita Anand wouldn’t say whether the government would be willing to swallow the financial implications of the Bloc’s demands.
“We are focused at Treasury Board on ensuring prudent fiscal management,” she said Thursday.
“And at this time, our immediate focus is implementing the measures in budget 2024 that were announced earlier this year.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
OTTAWA – Treasury Board President Anita Anand has been sworn in as federal transport minister at a ceremony at Rideau Hall, taking over a portfolio left vacant after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on Thursday.
Anand thanked Rodriguez for his contributions to the government and the country, saying she’s grateful for his guidance and friendship.
She sidestepped a question about the message it sends to have him leave the federal Liberal fold.
“That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well,” she said.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not present for the swearing-in ceremony, nor were any other members of the Liberal government.
The shakeup in cabinet comes just days after the Liberals lost a key seat in a Montreal byelection to the Bloc Québécois and amid renewed calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and make way for a new leader.
Anand said she is not actively seeking leadership of the party, saying she is focused on her roles as minister and as MP.
“My view is that we are a team, and we are a team that has to keep delivering for our country,” she said.
The minority Liberal government is in a more challenging position in the House of Commons after the NDP ended a supply-and-confidence deal that provided parliamentary stability for more than two years.
Non-confidence votes are guaranteed to come from the Opposition Conservatives, who are eager to bring the government down.
On Thursday morning, Rodriguez made a symbolic walk over the Alexandra Bridge from Parliament Hill to Gatineau, Que., where he formally announced his plans to run for the Quebec Liberal party leadership.
He said he will now sit as an Independent member of Parliament, which will allow him to focus on his own priorities.
“I was defending the priorities of the government, and I did it in a very loyal way,” he said.
“It’s normal and it’s what I had to do. But now it’s more about my vision, the vision of the team that I’m building.”
Rodriguez said he will stay on as an MP until the Quebec Liberal leadership campaign officially launches in January.
He said that will “avoid a costly byelection a few weeks, or months, before a general election.”
The next federal election must be held by October 2025.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he will try to topple the government sooner than that, beginning with a non-confidence motion that is set to be debated Sept. 24 and voted on Sept. 25.
Poilievre has called on the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to support him, but both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have said they will not support the Conservatives.
Rodriguez said he doesn’t want a federal election right away and will vote against the non-confidence motion.
As for how he would vote on other matters before the House of Commons, “it would depend on the votes.”
Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, a non-cabinet role Rodriguez held since 2019.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees and Dylan Robertson
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