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Economy

Opinion | Mad at Biden over the economy? Take our quiz. – The Washington Post

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The past few years have been tumultuous, with a deadly pandemic, a recession, an inflation spike and overseas wars. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Americans give President Biden low marks on the economy. How bad are things? This quiz will help you calibrate your level of concern, and it will show you how your knowledge of economic reality stacks up against other Americans we asked and other Post readers. (We partnered with Gapminder, a Swedish nonprofit, to poll 600 people ages 18 to 65 about the economy. The sample was balanced to reflect U.S. demography.)

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Test your assumptions in The Post’s editorial quiz, powered by Gapminder.
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The economies of the Euro zone are 3 percent bigger today than they were before the coronavirus pandemic. How is the U.S. economy today* compared with before the pandemic?

*As of the end of Q3 2023

Brisk consumer spending has made the U.S. economic recovery from the pandemic stronger than Europe’s. Large federal government aid in 2020 and 2021 boosted U.S. household spending and saving. On top of that, many Americans locked in rock-bottom mortgage rates when they were low, so they have not felt the sting of high interest rates as much as consumers in other countries. Strong wage growth and stock market gains have also fueled U.S. spending.

Even so, top-line numbers can mask economic challenges Americans face. Hasn’t inflation stung many households?

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How much have gas prices increased since President Biden’s inauguration?

Customers fill up on $2.99 per gallon regular gas at a filling station in Alexandria, Va., on Jan. 2. (Shawn Thew/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

The average price for gas was about $2.40 when President Biden took office. The price reached an all-time high of $5 a gallon in June 2022 mainly because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But gas prices have fallen a lot since then and are now just over $3 a gallon.

Yet Americans buy far more than just gas. What’s the big picture?

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Prices in the United States have risen about 20 percent since just before the coronavirus pandemic. How much have wages grown since then?

<p text="Inflation hit a 40-year high in the summer of 2022. Prices for almost everything were rising: food, cars, travel, appliances. Costs for many were rising faster than their pay. But that changed in 2023 as many workers saw large wage increases. The average worker’s pay has risen 20.5 percent since January 2020, outpacing the 19 percent rise in inflation over the same time frame. Many low-wage workers are doing even better.” class=”wpds-c-hcZlgz wpds-c-hcZlgz-bkfjoi-font-georgia wpds-c-hcZlgz-jDmrXh-width-mdCenter wpds-c-hcZlgz-ibdLmgo-css”>Inflation hit a 40-year high in the summer of 2022. Prices for almost everything were rising: food, cars, travel, appliances. Costs for many were rising faster than their pay. But that changed in 2023 as many workers saw large wage increases. The average worker’s pay has risen 20.5 percent since January 2020, outpacing the 19 percent rise in inflation over the same time frame. Many low-wage workers are doing even better.

These facts prompt a look at the state of American jobs.

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Which president had the strongest job growth in his first term?

This question is a bit unfair; presidents have only so much control over the economy, and the timing of presidential terms determines how the numbers look. (President Donald Trump saw more than 6 million jobs added in his first three years in office, but those gains disappeared in the pandemic. He ended his first term with millions of job losses.) Moreover, Mr. Biden’s first term isn’t done. But anyone who claims that this key indicator of economic health is off-track has not been paying attention to the country’s jobs bonanza, with record-low levels of unemployment and more than 14 million jobs added through December 2023.

<p text="The U.S. economy — and American workers — have been remarkably resilient. The Federal Reserve’s campaign against inflation has cooled price increases. Hiring remains robust. And growth recently accelerated. Americans are finally becoming more upbeat about the U.S. economy as gas and grocery prices stabilize and growth continues with no recession in sight. There are still people struggling, as food insecurity data and fast-growing credit card debt demonstrate. But jobs remain plentiful and unemployment has sat below 4 percent for the longest stretch in U.S. history since the Vietnam War era. Wages are now strongly outpacing inflation, especially for lower-wage workers, which is boosting spending and people’s confidence in the economy’s future.” class=”wpds-c-hcZlgz wpds-c-hcZlgz-bkfjoi-font-georgia wpds-c-hcZlgz-jDmrXh-width-mdCenter wpds-c-hcZlgz-ibdLmgo-css”>The U.S. economy — and American workers — have been remarkably resilient. The Federal Reserve’s campaign against inflation has cooled price increases. Hiring remains robust. And growth recently accelerated. Americans are finally becoming more upbeat about the U.S. economy as gas and grocery prices stabilize and growth continues with no recession in sight. There are still people struggling, as food insecurity data and fast-growing credit card debt demonstrate. But jobs remain plentiful and unemployment has sat below 4 percent for the longest stretch in U.S. history since the Vietnam War era. Wages are now strongly outpacing inflation, especially for lower-wage workers, which is boosting spending and people’s confidence in the economy’s future.

Presidents generally get too much credit — or blame — for economic circumstances over which they have much less power than Americans imagine. Yet it is simply wrong to remember Mr. Trump’s term as an economic renaissance that contrasts with misery today. Mr. Biden deserves more credit, if only for staying out of the Fed’s way, something that Mr. Trump might not have done. All Americans should celebrate the “soft landing” the United States is enjoying.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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