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Economy

Dave McKay: failure to lower housing costs could 'put our entire economy at risk' – BNN Bloomberg

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RBC President and Chief Executive Officer Dave McKay says Canada’s housing crisis presents a longer-term risk to the overall economy. 

In an interview with BNN Bloomberg, McKay said many people are experiencing difficulty finding shelter within the country. He says high housing costs are one of the top issues the country faces and worries it could drive people away and impact the overall talent available in the Canadian economy. 

“If we don’t solve it, we put our entire economy at risk, in that it’s too expensive to live here, we don’t attract the talent, we don’t retain the next generation,” McKay said. 

He said the real estate sector currently faces a “catch-22” as higher interest rates deter development needed to increase supply. 

“There’s a huge demand for housing,” he said. “As we know it’s stabilizing house prices in what would normally be a down market. But we can’t satisfy that pent-up demand with more supply because rates are too high.”

McKay also highlighted that the permitting process takes too long and needs to move at a faster pace. 

“It’s been a challenge for our country from business to construction. It takes too long to get permits to move forward,” he said adding that the slow process results in losing out on business to the U.S. 

‘Soft landing’ 

In the near term, McKay said elevated interest rates are working to bring inflation down, although the process is “a little slower than we would like.”

“Overall, we appear to be fully on a path to engineer a soft landing for the Canadian economy,” he said.

Previous moves by the Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy are working to ease inflation, McKay said. 

“Higher rates have led to a repricing of business loans, have led to higher interest rates for mortgages, which has been difficult. That takes cash flow (out) of the economy and therefore the economy is slowing from a demand perspective as rates are working,” he said. 

Despite the easing of inflationary pressures, he added the impact has been “offset a little bit” due to government deficits and “a million new Canadians coming in from abroad.” Those two factors, he said, add slightly to inflationary pressures. 

“Still, we’re on track for rate cuts this summer and into the fall. I think that relief will be welcomed by Canadians and will help bring down mortgage rates and bring down overall costs of servicing a mortgage for Canadians,” McKay said. 

However, even if interest rates are reduced, they are likely to still be high enough to weigh on the overall economy, he highlighted. 

“Don’t forget, even if rates come down by 100 basis points or 50 basis points, that’s still tightening. A four per cent rate in the economy is still not an expansionary rate, it’s a tightening rate. And therefore that still will have an effect on the economy going forward,” McKay said. 

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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