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Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 5%, says things moving in right direction

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The Bank of Canada has held its key interest rate at five per cent for the sixth consecutive time since July, saying it will look for signs that slowing inflation is sustained before moving on rate cuts.

The central bank said that inflation is still too high, but noted that core inflation measures — which strip out volatile sectors like food and energy — have trended downward in recent months.

“I realize that what most Canadians want to know is when we will lower our policy interest rate. What do we need to see to be convinced it’s time to cut?” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said during a news conference following the announcement.

“The short answer is we are seeing what we need to see, but we need to see it for longer to be confident that progress toward price stability will be sustained. The further decline we’ve seen in core inflation is very recent. We need to be assured this is not just a temporary dip.”

Macklem said that a rate cut in June is “within the realm of possibilities.”

 

Central bank being cautious about lowering interest rate, Macklem says

 

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday again held its key interest rate at five per cent. ‘We are seeing what we need to see,’ governor Tiff Macklem said. “But we need to see it for longer to be confident that the progress towards price stability will be sustained.’ In response to a reporter’s question, Macklem said a rate cut in June is ‘within the realm of possibilities.’

While inflation cooled to 2.8 per cent in February, with price growth slowing across goods, food, clothing and services, high rent and mortgage interest costs continue to drive up the overall inflation rate.

The bank expects inflation will move closer to its two per cent target this year, and that it will reach it in 2025. The bank also expects solid GDP growth this year and in 2025, due to population growth and increased household spending.

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“As we consider how much longer to hold the policy rate at the current level, we’re looking for evidence that the recent further easing in underlying inflation will be sustained,” Macklem said.

The Bank of Canada first raised interest rates in March 2022, the beginning of an aggressive campaign to cool inflation that resulted in 10 rate hikes in less than two years.

Bank just needs to see ‘more of the same’: economist

“It seems like the Bank of Canada is telling Canadians that rate cuts are on the horizon and it might not be so long before they become a reality,” said economist Royce Mendes, managing director at Desjardins Capital Markets.

He said that the longer the bank holds interest rates at five per cent, the more it risks tipping the economy into an unnecessary recession.

Mendes added that he thinks the central bank will start cutting rates at its next meeting on June 5, and that it will continue to cut in small increments at subsequent meetings from then on.

 

‘Why do we care about core inflation?’ Bank of Canada governor explains

 

Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, says core inflation — which strips out volatile parts of the consumer price index — gives the bank a sense of where the trend is.

“All they needed to see for rate cuts to become a reality was more of the same, which is really great news,” Mendes said.

Economists have forecast that the Bank of Canada will lead the U.S. Federal Reserve in rate cuts as economic data in both countries have been diverging.

“The U.S. economy right now is extremely strong, whereas the Canadian economy is struggling,” Mendes said.

The U.S. economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the fourth quarter, while January GDP data shows that the Canadian economy began 2024 on a stronger note after last year’s weak activity.

U.S. inflation increased more than expected in March by 0.4 per cent after advancing by the same amount in February, pushing hopes of a Fed rate cut further into the second half of the year.

Macklem said he did not see a big impact from U.S. inflation on Canada.

 

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RCMP investigating after three found dead in Lloydminster, Sask.

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LLOYDMINSTER, SASK. – RCMP are investigating the deaths of three people in Lloydminster, Sask.

They said in a news release Thursday that there is no risk to the public.

On Wednesday evening, they said there was a heavy police presence around 50th Street and 47th Avenue as officers investigated an “unfolding incident.”

Mounties have not said how the people died, their ages or their genders.

Multiple media reports from the scene show yellow police tape blocking off a home, as well as an adjacent road and alleyway.

The city of Lloydminster straddles the Alberta-Saskatchewan border.

Mounties said the three people were found on the Saskatchewan side of the city, but that the Alberta RCMP are investigating.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 12, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story; An earlier version said the three deceased were found on the Alberta side of Lloydminster.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Three injured in Kingston, Ont., assault, police negotiating suspect’s surrender

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KINGSTON, Ont. – Police in Kingston, Ont., say three people have been sent to hospital with life-threatening injuries after a violent daytime assault.

Kingston police say officers have surrounded a suspect and were trying to negotiate his surrender as of 1 p.m.

Spokesperson Const. Anthony Colangeli says police received reports that the suspect may have been wielding an edged or blunt weapon, possibly both.

Colangeli says officers were called to the Integrated Care Hub around 10:40 a.m. after a report of a serious assault.

He says the three victims were all assaulted “in the vicinity,” of the drop-in health centre, not inside.

Police have closed Montreal Street between Railway Street and Hickson Avenue.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Government intervention in Air Canada talks a threat to competition: Transat CEO

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Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.

“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.

“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.

Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.

Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.

Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.

The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.

As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”

“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.

The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.

Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.

The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.

“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”

Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.

“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.

“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.

“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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