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Canada's top doctor says models are not 'crystal balls' as calls to release national projections grow – CBC.ca

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Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam says models that attempt to predict how many people could become infected and die from the coronavirus are not “crystal balls,” and that it’s more important to focus on what is happening with the outbreak in real time.

Tam said public health officials and the federal government use different models for planning purposes, but whether or not different projections will actually play out is highly dependent on the actions taken by governments and citizens.

“The use of modelling or other projections always describes a range of possibilities … they’re not actual crystal balls or real numbers,” said Tam. “That’s why we keep saying we need to act now and practise social distancing, self-isolation, hand hygiene, and all those measures, because the fate of those possibilities and scenarios is in our hands.”

The comments come as pressure mounts on the federal government to release national-level projections for the number of cases and deaths that could result from the pandemic that has already claimed the lives of over 200 Canadians while infecting over 13,000 more.

More provincial projections on the way

The Ontario government released a series of projections on Friday showing that between 3,000 and 15,000 people could die in the province from complications related to COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by coronavirus, over the course of two years.

The model also included predictions of when the province’s hospital capacity could become overloaded.

Before that, the B.C. government released projections showing that physical distancing measures had reduced the rate of increase in confirmed cases per day to 12 per cent from a possible 24 per cent, and that the province’s hospitals had the capacity to handle even a severe outbreak similar to what happened in China’s Hubei province..

Both Alberta and Quebec have committed to releasing projections some time next week.

Watch: Trudeau says government will continue to collect the necessary data to make COVID-19 predictions.

Trudeau says that the federal government will continue to collect the necessary data to make broader COVID-19 predictions. 0:25

The Public Health Agency of Canada released an online dashboard Saturday that presents a number of data points showing the current state of the outbreak across the country. The data shows the number of cases and deaths broken down by categories including age, sex, and location.

It’s the first time authoritative data has been customized and integrated in an interactive way, said Tam.

But the dashboard does not include projections into the future showing how COVID-19 might play out in the months ahead, including how many people will be hospitalized and how many could die across the county.

Trudeau non-committal on national projections

At his daily briefing, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would not commit to releasing national projections, but said the federal government would continue to collect and collate data from provinces to build a picture of what’s happening across the country

“We recognize that people want to know how bad this is going to get, how much longer it’s going to last,” said Trudeau.

“One thing is consistently clear — the measures that have been put in place by all orders of government from closing schools to staying home, are saving lives,” said Trudeau.

Trudeau said the government would continue to release up-to-date data on a daily basis and use it to inform decisions.

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A linebacker at West Virginia State is fatally shot on the eve of a game against his old school

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CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — A linebacker at Division II West Virginia State was fatally shot during what the university said Thursday is being investigated by police as a home invasion.

The body of Jyilek Zyiare Harrington, 21, of Charlotte, North Carolina, was found inside an apartment Wednesday night in Charleston, police Lt. Tony Hazelett said in a statement.

Hazelett said several gunshots were fired during a disturbance in a hallway and inside the apartment. The statement said Harrington had multiple gunshot wounds and was pronounced dead at the scene. Police said they had no information on a possible suspect.

West Virginia State said counselors were available to students and faculty on campus.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with Jyilek’s family as they mourn the loss of this incredible young man,” West Virginia State President Ericke S. Cage said in a letter to students and faculty.

Harrington, a senior, had eight total tackles, including a sack, in a 27-24 win at Barton College last week.

“Jyilek truly embodied what it means to be a student-athlete and was a leader not only on campus but in the community,” West Virginia State Vice President of Intercollegiate Athletics Nate Burton said. “Jyilek was a young man that, during Christmas, would create a GoFundMe to help less fortunate families.”

Burton said donations to a fund established by the athletic department in Harrington’s memory will be distributed to an organization in Charlotte to continue his charity work.

West Virginia State’s home opener against Carson-Newman, originally scheduled for Thursday night, has been rescheduled to Friday, and a private vigil involving both teams was set for Thursday night. Harrington previously attended Carson-Newman, where he made seven tackles in six games last season. He began his college career at Division II Erskine College.

“Carson-Newman joins West Virginia State in mourning the untimely passing of former student-athlete Jyilek Harrington,” Carson-Newman Vice President of Athletics Matt Pope said in a statement. “The Harrington family and the Yellow Jackets’ campus community is in our prayers. News like this is sad to hear anytime, but today it feels worse with two teams who knew him coming together to play.”

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AP college football: and

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Hall of Famer Joe Schmidt, who helped Detroit Lions win 2 NFL titles, dies at 92

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DETROIT (AP) — Joe Schmidt, the Hall of Fame linebacker who helped the Detroit Lions win NFL championships in 1953 and 1957 and later coached the team, has died. He was 92.

The Lions said family informed the team Schmidt died Wednesday. A cause of death was not provided.

One of pro football’s first great middle linebackers, Schmidt played his entire NFL career with the Lions from 1953-65. An eight-time All-Pro, he was enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1973 and the college football version in 2000.

“Joe likes to say that at one point in his career, he was 6-3, but he had tackled so many fullbacks that it drove his neck into his shoulders and now he is 6-foot,” said the late Lions owner William Clay Ford, Schmidt’s presenter at his Hall of Fame induction in 1973. “At any rate, he was listed at 6-feet and as I say was marginal for that position. There are, however, qualities that certainly scouts or anybody who is drafting a ballplayer cannot measure.”

Born in Pittsburgh, Schmidt played college football in his hometown at Pitt, beginning his stint there as a fullback and guard before coach Len Casanova switched him to linebacker.

“Pitt provided me with the opportunity to do what I’ve wanted to do, and further myself through my athletic abilities,” Schmidt said. “Everything I have stemmed from that opportunity.”

Schmidt dealt with injuries throughout his college career and was drafted by the Lions in the seventh round in 1953. As defenses evolved in that era, Schmidt’s speed, savvy and tackling ability made him a valuable part of some of the franchise’s greatest teams.

Schmidt was elected to the Pro Bowl 10 straight years from 1955-64, and after his arrival, the Lions won the last two of their three NFL titles in the 1950s.

In a 1957 playoff game at San Francisco, the Lions trailed 27-7 in the third quarter before rallying to win 31-27. That was the NFL’s largest comeback in postseason history until Buffalo rallied from a 32-point deficit to beat Houston in 1993.

“We just decided to go after them, blitz them almost every down,” Schmidt recalled. “We had nothing to lose. When you’re up against it, you let both barrels fly.”

Schmidt became an assistant coach after wrapping up his career as a player. He was Detroit’s head coach from 1967-72, going 43-35-7.

Schmidt was part of the NFL’s All-Time Team revealed in 2019 to celebrate the league’s centennial season. Of course, he’d gone into the Hall of Fame 46 years earlier.

Not bad for an undersized seventh-round draft pick.

“It was a dream of mine to play football,” Schmidt told the Detroit Free Press in 2017. “I had so many people tell me that I was too small. That I couldn’t play. I had so many negative people say negative things about me … that it makes you feel good inside. I said, ‘OK, I’ll prove it to you.’”

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Coastal GasLink fined $590K by B.C. environment office over pipeline build

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VICTORIA – British Columbia’s Environment Assessment Office has fined Coastal GasLink Pipeline Ltd. $590,000 for “deficiencies” in the construction of its pipeline crossing the province.

The office says in a statement that 10 administrative penalties have been levied against the company for non-compliance with requirements of its environmental assessment certificate.

It says the fines come after problems with erosion and sediment control measures were identified by enforcement officers along the pipeline route across northern B.C. in April and May 2023.

The office says that the latest financial penalties reflect its escalation of enforcement due to repeated non-compliance of its requirements.

Four previous penalties have been issued for failing to control erosion and sediment valued at almost $800,000, while a fifth fine of $6,000 was handed out for providing false or misleading information.

The office says it prioritized its inspections along the 670-kilometre route by air and ground as a result of the continued concerns, leading to 59 warnings and 13 stop-work orders along the pipeline that has now been completed.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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