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Two other developments, Enbridge’s Line 3 replacement project in the U.S. and the Trans Mountain expansion, do appear to be moving forward, but there are no certainties when it comes to building pipelines.
All three projects have already taken, on average, more than 8.5 years since initial filings for regulatory approval began, according to energy consultancy IHS Market.
A victory by Biden could strand some of Alberta’s investment. Cancelling the project would also act as another impediment to the province growing its oilsands production, even as demand for heavy oil increases in the U.S.
“The fundamentals for the pipeline are probably as good as they’ve ever been in the 10-plus years we’ve been talking about the project,” said Jackie Forrest, executive director of ARC Energy Research Institute.
Some proponents believe other issues will eventually weigh in favour of Keystone XL, regardless of who ultimately resides in the White House. These issues include the number of American union jobs the project will create and the need for more Canadian heavy oil in U.S. refineries to replace falling production from Venezuela.
“There are a number of state and congressional delegations that would be pulling for this supply to come from Canada,” said Gary Mar, CEO of the Canada West Foundation and Alberta’s former trade representative in Washington, D.C.
“But it’s impossible to guess and speculate whether KXL is going to be completed or ended. There are just so many factors that can push it in either direction.”
The outcome of the U.S. election is another one of those factors.
For a project first proposed a dozen years ago, uncertainty is par for the course.
Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.
