TORONTO —
Infectious disease experts and COVID-19 modelers are sounding alarm bells of an approaching third wave expected to be driven by more contagious variants of the virus.
But while we brace for Wave 3, some are wondering if we ever actually cleared Wave 2, especially in populous areas of the country where transmission has remained more steady.
Experts say the definition of what constitutes a “wave” and pinpointing when it’s passed isn’t so clear.
Some say we’re on the tail end of the second wave now, as evidenced by the downward trend of cases across the country, while others say ebbs and flows haven’t been uniform enough to determine when one wave ends and another begins.
Caroline Colijn, a COVID modeler and mathematician at Simon Fraser University, says the word “wave” has been somewhat misleading. Waves of viruses tend to ease up on their own as immunity grows within a population, she says, which we haven’t reached yet with COVID.
Instead, the ebb and flow of SARS-CoV-2 has been dictated by our own actions, Colijn added, for instance restrictive measures that limit the ability of the virus to spread.
“This isn’t a wave, it’s a forest fire,” Colijn said. “We turn the hoses off and the flames build up again and we get exponential growth. Then we turn the hoses back on and cases decrease.”
Colijn, whose modelling predicts steep rises in cases around the end of February in six of Canada’s biggest provinces, says the challenge of “wave language” is that when waves recede, people think the threat has ceded with it.
But until we reach levels of herd immunity, she says, that’s not going to happen.
“We’re not seeing a natural tailing off. We’re seeing things drop because of restrictions — those fire hoses we put in front of the fire,” she said. “Then we turn the hoses off and we’re surprised that this wave is coming back.”
Canada’s top doctors said Friday that eight provinces have reported cases of new COVID variants, with three of them showing evidence of community transmission.
Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said there had been 429 cases of the variant first identified in the U.K., 28 cases of the variant first identified in South Africa, and one of the variant first found in Brazil.
While it sounds like a small number compared to our population, University of Manitoba virologist Jason Kindrachuk says the heightened transmissibility of those variants makes the situation more alarming.
Compounding things further is that true prevalence of the variants nationwide is unknown, he added, though some jurisdictions have been doing point-prevalence studies to help determine that.
Kindrachuk says one or two cases, when caught early and isolated, aren’t too concerning. But danger proliferates as more pop up.
“You have that initial fire and then sparks start flying … and that leads to a bunch of small fires,” he said. “If those start to catch, you lose the ability to necessarily keep things in control.”
Dr. Howard Njoo, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, says the presence of more transmissible variants means people should be more diligent in adhering to current safety measures aimed at slowing the spread of other COVID strains, including limiting contacts, mask-wearing and distancing.
The spike in variant cases comes at a time when Canada appears to be “two-thirds of the way down the curve,” Tam said, as overall COVID cases fall.
Some jurisdictions, like Ontario, have taken that as reason to reopen. Most of the province is moving away from its stay-at-home orders next week, even though projections released Thursday show a potentially rapid rise by late February.
Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease expert with the University of Toronto, says reopening Ontario now could lead to further lockdowns in the province later.
“I anticipate our numbers over the next two weeks are going to be pretty good, but it’s four weeks from now, six weeks from now that I’m most concerned about,” he said.
Troy Day, a COVID modeler out of Queen’s University, says the problem with the variants is that they’re still lurking beneath the surface. And they may not truly be seen until they take hold more firmly.
Day said he’s concerned about a third wave in Canada because places like Britain have shown similar trajectories.
“Cases go down and you think everything’s OK, but underneath is actually an increase in variant cases that will eventually dominate everything,” he said.
Day says the word wave is “funny terminology,” adding he’s been hesitant to definitively label the ups and downs of COVID case counts that way.
“All the waves we’ve seen are driven largely by what we’re doing to control it,” Day said. “The more we open up and shut down, the more multiple waves we’ll have.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 12, 2021.
HOUSTON (AP) — Brian White scored in the second half to rally the Vancouver Whitecaps to a 1-1 draw with the Houston Dynamo on Wednesday night.
Houston (12-9-8) took a 1-0 lead into halftime after Ezequiel Ponce scored on a penalty kick in the seventh minute of stoppage time. Ponce’s third goal this season came after Amine Bassi drew a foul on Whitecaps midfielder Pedro Vite following a video review. It was Ponce’s sixth career appearance, all starts.
Vancouver (13-8-7) scored the equalizer in the 73rd minute when White, who entered in the 60th, used assists from Fafá Picault and Ryan Gauld to find the net for the 13th time this season. Picault’s assist was his fifth, matching his career high for a single season. Gauld’s assist gives him a career-best 13 on the season.
Yohei Takaoka, who had clean sheets in his last three starts, finished with one save in goal for the Whitecaps.
Steve Clark saved three shots for the Dynamo, who remain one point behind Vancouver in the Western Conference standings.
Houston, which was coming off a 4-1 victory over Real Salt Lake, has allowed just 33 goals this season.
Vancouver — 6-2-2 in its last 10 matches overall — leads the all-time series 10-9-6.
The Whitecaps remain on the road to play the Los Angeles Galaxy on Saturday. The Dynamo travel to play Austin FC on Saturday.
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) — Tom Pearce and Nathan Saliba scored in the second half — the first goals of their careers — and CF Montreal rallied for a 2-2 draw with the New England Revolution on Wednesday night.
“In the second half, the guys came out a little more ambitious and above all, more connected,” Montreal head coach Laurent Courtois said. “It was a great second half of resilience and fighting spirit. Nathan and Sam were impressive.
“Impressive in covering the gaps and compensating for the teammates, and the individual defending – yes it’s true, it is a lot of weight on their shoulders, but that’s the job.”
New England (8-16-4) jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the 24th minute on Bobby Wood’s third goal of the season. Teenage defender Peyton Miller notched his first assist in his fourth career start and sixth appearance and Carles Gil picked up his ninth of the season. Peyton, at 16 years, 315 days old, is the eighth youngest player in league history to record his first assist.
The Revolution took a two-goal lead in the 35th minute and held it through halftime when 19-year-old Esmir Bajraktarevic took a pass from Gil and scored his third goal of the season and career in his first full season in the league. It was the 73rd regular-season assist in Gil’s career, tying him with Steve Ralston for the most in club history.
Montreal (7-12-10) pulled within a goal in the 54th minute when Pearce scored off a free kick after defender George Campbell drew a foul on New England’s Mark-Anthony Kaye. It was the first goal for Pearce in his third career start and fourth appearance.
“Playoffs are the goal. Maybe it wasn’t in the best form, but in the end, we are picking up a point,” Pearce said. “We came into this game confident, ready to play our own game. Everyone tries their best, whenever the players are called on, we are always ready, and we are always giving it our best.”
Montreal scored the equalizer in the 68th minute on the first career goal by Saliba, a 20-year-old midfielder. Saliba has made 34 starts and 48 appearances with Montreal in his two seasons in the league. Campbell snagged his second assist of the season and the third of his career.
“It’s an incredible feeling, it’s a goal I’ve been waiting for a long time. I’m extremely happy that I was able to score it and that it can help the team take this important point on the road,” Saliba said. “Pearce’s first goal gave us really good momentum and we kept up the pressure to go for a second goal. We got more solid defensively, and we came back ready after halftime, to push for these 3 points.”
Aljaz Ivacic finished with four saves in goal for the Revolution.
Jonathan Sirois stopped four shots for Montreal.
New England beat Montreal 5-0 on the road on Aug. 24.
New England leads the all-time series 16-13-4. Montreal improves to 5-8-2 on the road against the Revs.
The Revolution travel to take on Charlotte FC on Saturday. Montreal returns home to host the Chicago Fire on Saturday.
ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) — Adolis García hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning, Cody Bradford pitched seven strong innings after the worst start of his career, and the Texas Rangers beat the Toronto Blue Jays 2-0 on Wednesday night.
The win kept the defending World Series-champion Rangers alive in the AL West race, trailing first-place Houston by 10 games with 10 to play.
García launched an inside sinker over the left-field wall off Toronto starter Bowden Francis (8-5) after Wyatt Langford singled.
“He swings hard, he swings a lot,” Francis said of García. “I guess the velo was dropping during that time.”
Bradford (6-3) allowed five hits and no walks while striking out six.
The seven shutout innings are the most in a game during his two-year career. He was knocked out of his previous start after allowing career highs in hits (nine), runs (eight) and homers (three) in 3 2/3 innings in a 14-4 loss at Arizona.
“Throughout the week, you’ve got to try and digest what happened, see where I can make adjustments, whether it was just game plan went wrong or just poor execution, or a little bit of both,” Bradford said. “Then you flush it.”
Bradford was perfect through four innings before Alejandro Kirk opened the fifth with a smash back to the mound that caromed off Bradford’s left foot and rolled into right field for a single. It extended Kirk’s hitting streak to a career-high 12 games.
Spencer Horwitz’s double to left-center put runners on second and third with no outs before Bradford retired the next three batters.
Blue Jays manager John Schneider credited Bradford’s “deceptive fastball.”
“When you’re throwing 89, 92, you’ve got to have pretty good deception with that at this level,” Schneider said. “Kept us off balance.”
Kirby Yates pitched a perfect ninth inning for his 31st save in 32 opportunities.
Francis, who took no-hitters into the ninth inning in two of his previous four starts, allowed a double to Marcus Semien, the Rangers’ first hitter of the game. He gave up five hits and one walk in six innings.
Francis has a 1.96 ERA in nine starts with 54 strikeouts and seven walks since being moved back into the starting rotation in late July.
“I don’t even want to get complacent, on cruise control,” Francis said. “Just keep attacking.”
TRAINER’S ROOM
Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette was a late scratch with a right middle finger contusion suffered during infield practice. Schneider said the team will get back x-rays on Thursday. Bichette was activated Tuesday following a calf injury and played for the first time in two months, going 2 for 5 with one RBI at the plate. … INF Will Wagner (left knee inflammation) will have the knee scoped on Thursday. Schneider said Wagner should be ready to start spring training. Wagner, son of former major leaguer Billy Wagner, was acquired from Houston at the trade deadline.
UP NEXT
Rangers rookie RHP Kumar Rocker (0-0, 2.25 ERA) will make his home debut against Blue Jays RHP Kevin Gausman (12-11, 4.02) in the series finale. Rocker allowed one run in four innings at Seattle last Thursday in his major league debut.
