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A 2nd wave of COVID-19 is possible. Here’s what that means for Canada – Global News

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As countries around the world continue to work tirelessly to contain the spread of COVID-19, health officials have already warned that a second wave of the novel coronavirus that causes the disease could be imminent.

Last week, Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, told Canadians the virus could last several months and warned of a potential second wave.


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“We will need to be prepared for another wave, potentially,” she said.

Could Canada see a second wave of this novel coronavirus? Would it be worse?

Here’s what experts say:






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Canadian W.H.O. official says tough measures are key to slowing spread of COVID-19

Dr. Suzanne Sicchia, an associate professor at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Health and Society at the University of Toronto Scarborough, said a second wave occurs when new cases emerge after a “sustained period of time with no or very few infections.”

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In an email to Global News, Sicchia said that when it comes to the COVID-19 outbreak, a subsequent wave is possible.

“Past pandemics of infectious disease are characterized by waves that span months,” she wrote. “For instance, we saw this with the 1918 influenza pandemic, which had three waves.”

However, Sicchia noted that this novel coronavirus is “a unique virus with unique characteristics — it is not the same as SARS, MERS or influenza.”

She said watching what happens in China and South Korea will yield “important insights” into what could happen with this outbreak.

When could the second wave happen?

Dr. Jeff Kwong, an infectious disease specialist and associate professor in the department of family and community medicine at the University of Toronto, said there are a number of factors that will determine if or when Canada sees a second wave.

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He said that if this virus behaves like the H1N1 outbreak in 2009, things might calm down over the summer, and a second wave could come around fall or winter.


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They’re going to call that the second wave,” he said. “But we have no idea what’s actually going to happen.

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He said if Canada is going to see a second wave, it will likely happen once the social-distancing measures currently in place are relaxed.

Kwong warned, though, that “unless we are able to get it under control,” Canada could see a continuation of the virus through the summer months.






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Would a second wave be worse?

When it comes to the severity of the second wave, Kwong said it depends on how well Canadians abide by the measures in place and if the country is able to flatten the curve.

Kwong said that with H1N1, countries that experienced a large first wave typically saw a smaller second one.

Conversely, countries that had smaller first waves “generally” experienced larger second waves, he explained.


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I think that may be the pattern we see depending on what happens here,” he said. “It’s kind of like you have a choice: either you have pain now or you like your pain later.

“You’re going to have pain, it’s just a question of when you get your pain.”

But, Kwong said, Canada is “nowhere close” to the peak of the virus because “not a lot of people have been infected.”

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“I would say that we haven’t seen anything yet here,” he said. “I think this theoretical second wave, or whenever we relax these restrictions, it’s going to dwarf what we’re seeing now.”






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Coronavirus outbreak: Canada has conducted nearly 120,000 COVID-19 tests, Dr. Tam says


Coronavirus outbreak: Canada has conducted nearly 120,000 COVID-19 tests, Dr. Tam says

Physical distancing ‘the most effective strategy’

Craig Janes, director of the School of Public Health and Health Systems at the University of Waterloo, said that right now, physical distancing is the “most effective strategy” Canada has for limiting the spread of the virus.

“The physical distancing is really the key thing. It’s collective action that needs to be done, which can be done. Everybody needs to buy into it,” he said. “That’s the best we have.”

Janes said the more we can flatten the curve, the better Canada’s health system will be able to respond to those infected with the virus now and anyone who becomes sick later.


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“This is probably one of the most important things that we’re going to be asked to do in our lifetimes,” he said. “We really need to do this carefully, and if we can do it well, I think we’ll be in a much better position to get back to normal life.

Kwong said that what we might see in Canada is a gradual relaxation of restrictions, so if people continue to become ill, it doesn’t happen all at once.

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On Wednesday, China began lifting the last of the stringent measures that confined tens of millions of people to their homes for approximately two months.

Kwong said it will be interesting to see what happens with the virus once the controls have been lifted.

“I think that’ll be a good indicator of what will happen here when we relax our social-distancing measures,” he said.

READ MORE: Coronavirus — Can Canadians expect another pandemic like COVID-19 in the future?

Janes said Canada should also continue to do whatever possible to produce additional medical supplies.

Over the last few weeks, companies across the country have retooled in order to help manufacture protective masks, ventilators and sanitation products desperately needed by health-care professionals.

In addition to social distancing, this will put us in a much better position,” Janes said. “If we flatten this curve and get it under control, to some extent, we’ll buy some time so that we can make sure that our health system is equipped.”

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

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NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

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Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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