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A healthy economy can reduce inequality – but only to a limited extent – CNBC

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A pedestrian wearing a face mask delivers food to a homeless person sleeping in the entrance of a shop, closed due to coronavirus restrictions, in central London on December 23, 2020.
Tolga Akmen | AFP | Getty Images

SINGAPORE — The coronavirus pandemic triggered unprecedented economic contractions and job losses, exposing and worsening inequality around the world.

Global extreme poverty is set to rise for the first time in over 20 years, with Covid-19 forcing millions more to live on less than $1.90 a day, according to the World Bank.

David Wilcox of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said economic downturns in the U.S. tend to be “inequality-exacerbating” and that this recession has “unique characteristics.”

He pointed to data which shows that employment rates for high-wage workers have returned to pre-Covid levels. Low-wage employment, however, is still down by nearly 20%.

“A return, not so much to economic growth, but to a healthy economic situation overall will help alleviate the inequalities that have widened sharply this (past) year,” Wilcox, a senior fellow at PIIE, told CNBC.

“Once a vaccine has been widely administered, people will feel comfortable once again engaging in lots of activities that powered the service economy pre-pandemic,” he said. That includes going to the gym, eating in restaurants, flying on planes and attending conferences.

“All that will help reemploy a lot of the people who have been out of work since mid-March,” he said.

More jobs is clearly something that can help inequality in the short term. But, before Covid many economies had quite (even very) low unemployment and yet inequality was already a problem.
Richard Yetsenga
ANZ Bank

But Richard Yetsenga, chief economist of ANZ Bank, said economic growth may not be able to alleviate inequality beyond gains made through job creation.

“More jobs is clearly something that can help inequality in the short term. But, before Covid many economies had quite (even very) low unemployment and yet inequality was already a problem,” he said in an email.

“Economic growth didn’t solve the equity problem in most economies in the decade before Covid, and so something would need to be different to resolve it afterwards,” he added.

In a research note from November, Yetsenga said giant corporations have been the main beneficiaries of global growth over the past two decades. “But median wages have not increased the way we might have expected, and certainly not in a way that was consistent with historical experience,” he wrote.

Additionally, it is possible that, given the accelerated rate of digital adoption, inequality could worsen as economies progress.

“The industrial revolution made us much wealthier, but inequality widened dramatically,” Yetsenga said. “There are strong similarities with the digital revolution.”

IMF researchers found that new technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics could replace labor from developing countries and widen the gap between rich and poor countries.

Possible solutions

Yetsenga said inequality may be the “biggest policy challenge” after Covid, and accepting that it is a problem will be the first step to finding an answer.

The next step is seeing growth and inequality as intertwined, instead of one being the solution to the other.

He said aiming for greater GDP growth may appeal to some as the best way to solve inequality, but that approach is not likely to succeed. “Surely we can’t keep striving for one (growth) and keep expecting the other (inequality) to magically resolve itself?”

Is rising inequality an inevitable consequence of today’s technology-driven economic transformations—and globalization? The answer is no.
Zia Qureshi
Brookings Institution

The PIIE’s Wilcox said, beyond a healthy economy, countries could revamp their tax systems to be more progressive or invest in an equitable education system in the long run.

“We can take advantage of historically low interest rates to undertake government investment in smart, targeted ways that not only employ lots of people but also meet other important social objectives,” he added.

A Brookings Institution article also said that policies must keep pace with technological advancements so that economic growth can be inclusive.

“Is rising inequality an inevitable consequence of today’s technology-driven economic transformations—and globalization? The answer is no,” wrote Zia Qureshi, a visiting fellow at Brookings’ global economy and development program.

“With better, more responsive policies, more inclusive economic outcomes are possible,” he said.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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