‘A Kodak déjà vu’: Apple’s Vision Pro is yet to find its killer app–and it could spell trouble for Tim Cook’s risky bet - Fortune | Canada News Media
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‘A Kodak déjà vu’: Apple’s Vision Pro is yet to find its killer app–and it could spell trouble for Tim Cook’s risky bet – Fortune

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Apple has started shipping its Apple Vision Pro, its take on a headset that combines Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR).

While the product is an amazing technical tour de force, I believe the product-market fit of this first iteration is a swing and a miss.

I’ve watched other world-class consumer product companies make the same mistakes over and over again:

  1. Come up with amazing hardware that creates entirely new capabilities.
  2. Forecast demand based on volumes of their previous consumer products.
  3. Confuse consumers by defining a new category without a frame of reference.
  4. Discover that the hardware doesn’t match the needs of their existing customer base.
  5. Work hard and spend a lot of money on trying to push sales on their existing customers.
  6. Revenue woefully falls short of forecast. Marketing and capital expenses (new factory, high research and development expense) were predicated on consumer-scale sales. The new product is burning a ton of cash.
  7. Ignore or fail to understand adjacent niche industrial markets that would have rushed to buy the product if the company had developed niche-specific demos and outreach.
  8. Eventually, pivot to the niche markets that are excited about the product.
  9. The niche markets make for great beachhead markets but are too small to match the inflated forecasts and the built-in burn rates of consumer-scale sales.
  10. After multiple market pivots and changes in leadership, abandon the product.

A Kodak déjà vu

I lived through the equivalent of this when Kodak (remember them?) launched a product in 1990 called PhotoCD. Kodak wanted consumers to put their film photos on their home CDROM drives and then display them on their televisions. You dropped off your film at a film processor and instead of just getting physical prints of your pictures they would scan the film and burn them onto a Compact Disc. You’d go home with a Compact Disc with your pictures on it.

I got a preview of PhotoCD when I was the head of marketing at SuperMac, a supplier of hardware and software for graphics professionals. The moment I saw the product I knew every one of my professional graphics customers (ad agencies, freelancers, photo studios, etc.) would want to use it. In fact, they would have paid a premium for it. I was floored when Kodak told me they were launching PhotoCD as a consumer product.

The problem was that in 1990, consumers did not have CDROM drives to display the pictures. At the time, even most personal computers lacked them. Meanwhile, every graphics professional did own a CDROM drive but most didn’t own a high-resolution film scanner. They would have been the perfect launch customers for PhotoCD. To this day, I remember being lectured by a senior Kodak executive, “Steve you don’t get it, we’re experts at selling to consumers. We’ll sell them the CDROM drives as well.” 

Except the Kodak CDROM drives were the size of professional audio equipment and depending on the model, cost $600 to $1000 in today’s dollars. And when consumer CDROM drives became available they couldn’t play the PhotoCD disks as they were encoded in a proprietary Kodak standard to lock you into their drives! 

The result? PhotoCD failed miserably as a consumer product. Subsequent pivots to professional graphics users (a segment they knew well) came too late, as low-cost scanners and non-proprietary standards (JPEG) prevailed.

Getting it right

Similarly, Apple is trying to push Vision Pro onto their existing consumer customers. All the demos and existing applications are tailored to the consumer market.

Additionally, Apple did not create demos for how the Vision Pro could be used in new markets where users would jump at the opportunity to buy a Vision Pro. For example, the internet is rife with proof of demand in an adjacent mass market: helping millions of homeowners repair things around their property.

There is also proven demand for Industrial applications outside of the consumer space. Every company that has complex machinery has been experimenting with AR for years. Imagine car repair with a Vision Pro AR tutorial. Or jet engine maintenance. Or the entire gamut of complex machinery. All of these would have been great Vision Pro demos for training and repair. It’s hard to understand why Apple ignored these easy wins.

Apple’s entry into new markets by creating new product categories–iPods, iPads, iPhones–is unprecedented in the history of modern corporations. $300 billion (75% of their revenue) is from non-computer hardware. In addition, they’ve created an entirely new $85+ billion subscription business model with the App Store, iTunes, Apple Care, Apple Pay, Apple Cash, Apple Arcade, Apple Music, and Apple TV.

It’s hard to remember, but the first versions of these products launched with serious limitations that follow-on versions remedied. The first version of the iPhone only ran Apple software, it had no app store. It was a closed system. It had no copy-and-paste function, and couldn’t record video, among other limitations. The original Apple Watch was positioned as a fashion accessory. It wasn’t until later that Apple realized the Watch’s killer apps were fitness and health. Fixing the technical flaws while finding the right markets took time and commitment.

The same will likely be true for the Vision Pro. Apple’s model is to provide the hardware and then let their developer community come up with the kind of applications. However, all of the applications on this first release are in their current markets (entertainment, music, etc.). None of these are killer apps for the product.

Apple marketers will realize that adjacent spaces they are less familiar with will provide the first “got to have it” beachhead markets. Newer iterations will ride the technology wave of lighter and cheaper versions.

Apple’s CEO Tim Cook has made a personal bet on the Vision Pro. More than any other company, they have sufficient resources (cash on hand and engineering talent) to pivot–and ensure the Vision Pro’s product-market fit in the real markets that need it. Here’s to hoping they find it.

Steve Blank is an adjunct professor at Stanford and co-founder of the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation.

More must-read commentary published by Fortune:

  • The markets are starting to realize just how hawkish the Fed is–and reckoning with higher-for-longer interest rates
  • Working fathers are the new target of microaggressions–and they are worried they could be getting ‘daddy tracked’
  • WEF president: ‘It’s time to revitalize trade—and reverse the trend of Slowbalization’
  • The anti-DEI movement has gone from fringe to mainstream. Here’s what that means for corporate America

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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Building Homes Faster with our Latest 3D Construction Printer

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Copenhagen, 22.10.2024 – COBOD International, the global leader in 3D construction printing technology, proudly introduces the BOD3 3D Construction Printer for 3D printing of real concrete. Equipped with an extendable ground-based track system, the BOD3 advances the construction process by eliminating printer downtime between multiple buildings on the same site, setting a new benchmark for productivity and efficiency. The BOD3 is the most advanced solution for high-volume low-rise construction and a very effective alternative to conventional construction methods.

The heart and key feature of the new BOD3 3D printer is the advanced extendable ground-based track system. This system enables limitless extension along the Y-axes (length), expanding the printable area to cover 2 or 3 buildings, and reducing setup time to a single installation for multi-building projects. It’s a game-changer, allowing continuous, uninterrupted printing across large sites, increasing efficiency for high volume and mass production at an unmatchable scale.

 

Render of COBOD BOD3 3D Construction Printer.

The BOD3, COBOD’s third printer model, is the outstanding achievement of years of dedicated research, development, and close collaboration with customers. It is a vital advancement in automated construction technology, directly addressing the urgent global demand for faster, smarter, more efficient and sustainable building solutions. Like every COBOD 3D printer, the BOD3’s modular design offers customization, allowing it to easily adapt to any customer’s size wishes in addition to complying with the various sizes of construction sites anywhere in the world.

The BOD3 follows COBOD’s vision to build smarter through automation. Its operational stand combines the control and monitoring of both the 3D printer and supplementary equipment in one user-friendly system. The Advanced Hose Management System (AHMS) transports 3D printable material from the materials delivery system to the printhead via hoses secured within E-chains, minimizing physical labor and optimizing material flow. With the addition of the dual dosing system for additives, operators can better control the concrete and adapt it to onsite environmental conditions. By introducing additives directly at the printhead, the system reduces drying time between layers, speeding up the overall construction process. Designed for easy operation and precision, the BOD3 can be operated by a small, trained, and certified team, reducing the costs of projects.

Incorporating the innovative Universal X-Carriage, the BOD3 is ready for future COBOD advancements and technologies, like the introduction of additional tools for the printer aimed at insulating, painting, sanding, etc. This ensures long-term versatility and performance that will keep the BOD3 at the forefront of the industry for years to come.

 

Universal X-Carriage with Printhead.

Already deployed to the global market, the BOD3 is currently active in Indonesia, by Modula Tiga Dimensi, Angola, by Power2Build, and Bahrain, by Ab’aad 3D. The customers report faster project execution with near-zero downtime between individual buildings on the same site. The projects showcase the BOD3’s ability to speed up construction and print with real concrete, with 99% locally sourced materials and 1% of innovative D.fab, a co-developed solution by COBOD and Cemex to make concrete 3D printable.

Henrik Lund-Nielsen, Founder and General Manager of COBOD, commented on the BOD3: “The global housing crisis demands a more efficient construction solution that is faster, more efficient, and scalable. The BOD3 is our answer to this challenge. Drawing on years of research and expertise, we’ve designed the BOD3 with innovative features, making it our most cost-effective and efficient model yet for multiple low-rise buildings. Its design supports high-volume, linear production of houses, enabling mass production without compromising quality. The fact that six units have already been sold before its official launch speaks volumes about the BOD3’s market demand and the trust our customers place in our technology.

Michael Holm, Chief Innovation Officer at COBOD, states, “The advanced ground-based track system was developed as a response to our customers’ needs to increase efficiency and productivity. Now the 3D construction printer can be easily extended, and multiple consecutive structures can be printed with minimal repositioning and zero downtime between projects, making 3D construction printing more efficient than ever before.

 

The BOD3 is now available for purchase worldwide; for more information, please visit our website, www.cobod.com, or contact us at info@cobod.com.

 

RELEVANT LINKS

 

ABOUT COBOD

COBOD stands as the global leader in supplying 3D printers for the construction sector, with over 80 printers distributed across North and Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Driven by a mission to revolutionize construction through multifunctional robots based on 3D printing, COBOD envisions automating half of the construction processes to achieve faster, cost-effective, sustainable results with enhanced design versatility.

From residential, commercial, and public buildings, COBOD’s 3D printers have been instrumental in erecting 1- to 3-story structures across all six inhabited continents. The innovative technology also extends to fabricate large-scale data centers, wind turbine towers, tanks, and more.

Embracing an open-source material approach, COBOD collaborates with global partners, including customers, academia, and suppliers. The company, backed by prominent shareholders such as General Electric, CEMEX, Holcim, and PERI, operates from its main office in Copenhagen, Denmark, and regional competence centers in Miami, Florida, and Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. COBOD’s dynamic team comprises over 100 professionals from 25 diverse nationalities.

 

ABOUT MODULA TIGA DIMENSI

PT Modula Tiga Dimensi is a joint venture between Bakrie & Brothers (BNBR) and COBOD. BNBR focuses on offering and providing solutions for housing backlog problems currently encountered by the country.

Teaming up with COBOD International, the company is now set to adopt the latest 3D printing construction technology and is ready to offer the Indonesian market a new and better solution to housing obstructions.

 

ABOUT POWER2BUILD
Reshaping the construction sector and adapting it to urgent human needs.

Power2Build is a technology company for the construction industry, prepared to establish partnerships with private, public, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) so that they can make the transition to Build 4.0 through 3DCP.

We offer our clients value-added services and high-quality projects, always with a multidisciplinary approach that brings together the necessary experience to deal with complex issues.

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Slack researcher discusses the fear, loathing and excitement surrounding AI in the workplace

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SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Artificial intelligence‘s recent rise to the forefront of business has left most office workers wondering how often they should use the technology and whether a computer will eventually replace them.

Those were among the highlights of a recent study conducted by the workplace communications platform Slack. After conducting in-depth interviews with 5,000 desktop workers, Slack concluded there are five types of AI personalities in the workplace: “The Maximalist” who regularly uses AI on their jobs; “The Underground” who covertly uses AI; “The Rebel,” who abhors AI; “The Superfan” who is excited about AI but still hasn’t used it; and “The Observer” who is taking a wait-and-see approach.

Only 50% of the respondents fell under the Maximalist or Underground categories, posing a challenge for businesses that want their workers to embrace AI technology. The Associated Press recently discussed the excitement and tension surrounding AI at work with Christina Janzer, Slack’s senior vice president of research and analytics.

Q: What do you make about the wide range of perceptions about AI at work?

A: It shows people are experiencing AI in very different ways, so they have very different emotions about it. Understanding those emotions will help understand what is going to drive usage of AI. If people are feeling guilty or nervous about it, they are not going to use it. So we have to understand where people are, then point them toward learning to value this new technology.

Q: The Maximalist and The Underground both seem to be early adopters of AI at work, but what is different about their attitudes?

A: Maximalists are all in on AI. They are getting value out of it, they are excited about it, and they are actively sharing that they are using it, which is a really big driver for usage among others.

The Underground is the one that is really interesting to me because they are using it, but they are hiding it. There are different reasons for that. They are worried they are going to be seen as incompetent. They are worried that AI is going to be seen as cheating. And so with them, we have an opportunity to provide clear guidelines to help them know that AI usage is celebrated and encouraged. But right now they don’t have guidelines from their companies and they don’t feel particularly encouraged to use it.

Overall, there is more excitement about AI than not, so I think that’s great We just need to figure out how to harness that.

Q: What about the 19% of workers who fell under the Rebel description in Slack’s study?

A: Rebels tend to be women, which is really interesting. Three out of five rebels are women, which I obviously don’t like to see. Also, rebels tend to be older. At a high level, men are adopting the technology at higher rates than women.

Q: Why do you think more women than men are resisting AI?

A: Women are more likely to see AI as a threat, more likely to worry that AI is going to take over their jobs. To me, that points to women not feeling as trusted in the workplace as men do. If you feel trusted by your manager, you are more likely to experiment with AI. Women are reluctant to adopt a technology that might be seen as a replacement for them whereas men may have more confidence that isn’t going to happen because they feel more trusted.

Q: What are some of the things employers should be doing if they want their workers to embrace AI on the job?

A: We are seeing three out of five desk workers don’t even have clear guidelines with AI, because their companies just aren’t telling them anything, so that’s a huge opportunity.

Another opportunity to encourage AI usage in the open. If we can create a culture where it’s celebrated, where people can see the way people are using it, then they can know that it’s accepted and celebrated. Then they can be inspired.

The third thing is we have to create a culture of experimentation where people feel comfortable trying it out, testing it, getting comfortable with it because a lot of people just don’t know where to start. The reality is you can start small, you don’t have to completely change your job. Having AI write an email or summarize content is a great place to start so you can start to understand what this technology can do.

Q: Do you think the fears about people losing their jobs because of AI are warranted?

A: People with AI are going to replace people without AI.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Biden administration to provide $325 million for new Michigan semiconductor factory

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration said Tuesday that it would provide up to $325 million to Hemlock Semiconductor for a new factory, a move that could help give Democrats a political edge in the swing state of Michigan ahead of election day.

The funding would support 180 manufacturing jobs in Saginaw County, where Republicans and Democrats were neck-in-neck for the past two presidential elections. There would also be construction jobs tied to the factory that would produce hyper-pure polysilicon, a building block for electronics and solar panels, among other technologies.

Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said on a call with reporters that the funding came from the CHIPS and Science Act, which President Joe Biden signed into law in 2022. It’s part of a broader industrial strategy that the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, supports, while Republican nominee Donald Trump, the former president, sees tariff hikes and income tax cuts as better to support manufacturing.

“What we’ve been able to do with the CHIPS Act is not just build a few new factories, but fundamentally revitalize the semiconductor ecosystem in our country with American workers,” Raimondo said. “All of this is because of the vision of the Biden-Harris administration.”

A senior administration official said the timing of the announcement reflected the negotiating process for reaching terms on the grant, rather than any political considerations. The official insisted on anonymity to discuss the process.

After site work, Hemlock Semiconductor plans to begin construction in 2026 and then start production in 2028, the official said.

Running in 2016, Trump narrowly won Saginaw County and Michigan as a whole. But in 2020 against Biden, both Saginaw County and Michigan flipped to the Democrats.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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