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A second coronavirus lockdown in Canada? Experts discuss the likelihood – Global News
Like many things coronavirus-related, the chance Canada will need to tighten restrictions again is hard to predict, according to disease experts.
Ontario, B.C. and Alberta are all seeing cases climb, although the numbers are a far cry from the daily counts in March and April.
Experts aren’t convinced we’re on track for a second lockdown. In fact, some are cautiously optimistic.
“It’s less likely to occur this time around because preparations have been made this time,” said Dr. Alon Vaisman, an infectious disease and infection control physician at the University Health Network in Toronto.
“But that doesn’t mean it’s off the table.”
Recent modelling data from the Public Health Agency of Canada lays out the best- and worst-case scenarios over fall and winter.
The best case: Canada sees multiple small spikes in cases — fluctuating numbers — over the next few months. The worst case: Canada falls into a second wave that overwhelms the health system, followed by smaller spikes over the following months.
The data makes it clear “there’s always the possibility” that things could get worse again, Vaisman said, “but it’s hard to know how likely that will be.”
“This is a back-and-forth thing. Ultimately, people should expect a dynamic situation.”
How could we know?
A second wave of the virus would be the first sign of tightening up again.
Although there’s no set number of cases that would define a second wave — simply the slope of the curve rising rapidly — there’s “no question” Canada will see some form of one, said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto.
But for things to shut down, he said the rise in cases would need to be substantial enough that it “overwhelms” the ability to rapidly test and trace contacts.
“That’s the line in the sand,” Furness said. “As soon as we lose that, we’re in trouble. We have uncontrolled spread.”
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Summertime has so far provided a buffer for the virus’s spread, said Furness. As colder conditions force more people inside, cases will likely “bloom,” he said, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Canada will revert to March-level lockdown orders.
Since the pandemic’s onset in the spring, Canada has ramped up testing and contract tracing, secured more personal protective equipment (PPE), enhanced public health measures, increased compliance to those measures and “transformed” its health-care system to handle this type of emergency, Furness said.
There will inevitably be outbreaks, he acknowledged, but that won’t force everyone to shut themselves in.
“We will be smarter in how we respond and how we defend ourselves against COVID in a way that we just weren’t in March.”
What could happen?
Canada will likely take cues from other countries that have endured somewhat of a second wave, the experts agree.
Places like Spain and France have recently seen large increases in cases, but not in deaths and hospitalizations. It has prompted some tightened restrictions, but nowhere near the curfews and shuttered economies of March and April.
“A lockdown would only be considered if health system capacity gets overwhelmed, which does not seem to be the scenario in European countries, which opened earlier than us,” said Dr. Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto and director of the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto.
There are a number of factors contributing to this, Jha said, which are being reflected in Canada.
For one, he said more young people are getting tested and showing up in testing data. There’s also a better understanding of triaging and protecting hospitals and nursing homes.
“Elder folks are exposed less to younger folks now. They’re more isolated,” he said.
Vaisman believes Canada would see a “reverse of phases” if cases spike again, with higher-risk activities being shut down while lower-risk ones are maintained.
It would cascade from there. Should lower-risk things become higher risk as cases continue to climb, more closures could be imposed.
“There’s low-hanging fruit that we can cut out first,” Vaisman said.
Schools a ‘big test’
Schools are a “major variable” in what could worsen the COVID-19 situation in Canada, lending way to more tightened restrictions, said Vaisman.
“It will be a major test of our system because it essentially introduces a breakage in a lot of people’s bubbles and opens up potential chains of transmission with lots and lots of people,” he said.
“And then we’ll be waiting two or more weeks after the date of opening to really understand the effect of that.”
Some countries have had to close schools a second time when outbreaks swept through classrooms. Israel closed schools two weeks after fully reopening them, as did South Korea and some in Germany.
“Every time you open something up, you’re throwing coins on the risk pile. You’re making that bigger,” Furness said. “If you want a balance, every time you throw something on the risk pile, you need to throw something on the same pile. Opening schools is throwing a lot in the risk pile.”
Can we avoid it?
The tried-and-true protocols — hand hygiene, mask-wearing, physical distancing — are and will continue to be crucial as Canada heads into fall and winter.
“Mask-wearing is an enormous tool that we have and we’re seeing high compliance,” Furness said. “Compliance tends to go up when things get scary, not down.”
Bolstering testing is another way to ramp up protections, said Vaisman. He pointed to pressure to expedite Health Canada approval for at-home testing kits and saliva testing as ways to simplify testing and make it more accessible.
A push to get more Canadians on the country’s coronavirus exposure notification app, Covid Alert, is also an important tactic, said Jha.
The app has been downloaded roughly 2.2 million times in the first month it launched, but just 90 people have logged a COVID-19 diagnosis so far. Experts are worried it’s not enough.
“It’s been poorly promoted,” said Jha. “Where’s the advertising? Why aren’t bars and restaurants trying a ‘no app, no entry’ approach? Without high coverage of the app, it won’t be effective.”
Ultimately, Canadians looking for “light at the end of the tunnel” might have to look past winter when flu season passes and a vaccine draws closer, said Vaisman.
“There’s no reason why a lockdown can’t happen, but you just have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”
— with files from the Associated Press and Global News’ Leslie Young
© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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Ontario Legislature keffiyeh ban remains, though Ford and opposition leaders ask for reversal – CBC.ca
Keffiyehs remain banned in the Ontario Legislature after a unanimous consent motion that would have allowed the scarf to be worn failed to pass at Queen’s Park Thursday.
That vote, brought forth by NDP Leader Marit Stiles, failed despite Premier Doug Ford and the leaders of the province’s opposition parties all stating they want to see the ban overturned. Complete agreement from all MPPs is required for a motion like this to pass, and there were a smattering of “nos” after it was read into the record.
In an email on Wednesday, Speaker Ted Arnott said the legislature has previously restricted the wearing of clothing that is intended to make an “overt political statement” because it upholds a “standard practice of decorum.”
“The Speaker cannot be aware of the meaning of every symbol or pattern but when items are drawn to my attention, there is a responsibility to respond. After extensive research, I concluded that the wearing of keffiyehs at the present time in our Assembly is intended to be a political statement. So, as Speaker, I cannot authorize the wearing of keffiyehs based on our longstanding conventions,” Arnott said in an email.
Speaking at Queen’s Park Thursday, Arnott said he would reconsider the ban with unanimous consent from MPPs.
“If the house believes that the wearing of the keffiyeh in this house, at the present time, is not a political statement, I would certainly and unequivocally accept the express will of the house with no ifs, ands or buts,” he said.
Keffiyehs are a commonly worn scarf among Arabs, but hold special significance to Palestinian people. They have been a frequent sight among pro-Palestinian protesters calling for an end to the violence in Gaza as the Israel-Hamas� war continues.
Premier calls for reversal
Ford said Thursday he’s hopeful Arnott will reverse the ban, but he didn’t say if he would instruct his caucus to support the NDP’s motion.
In a statement issued Wednesday, Ford said the decision was made by the speaker and nobody else.
“I do not support his decision as it needlessly divides the people of our province. I call on the speaker to reverse his decision immediately,” Ford said.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford reiterated Thursday that he does not support Speaker Ted Arnott banning keffiyehs in the Ontario Legislature because they are “intended to be a political statement,” as Arnott said in an email Wednesday.
PC Party MPP Robin Martin, who represents Eglinton–Lawrence, voted against the unanimous consent motion Thursday and told reporters she believes the speaker’s initial ruling was the correct one.
“We have to follow the rules of the legislature, otherwise we politicize the entire debate inside the legislature, and that’s not what it’s about. What it’s about is we come there and use our words to persuade, not items of clothing.”
When asked if she had defied a directive from the premier, Martin said, “It has nothing to do with the premier, it’s a decision of the speaker of the legislative assembly.”
Stiles told reporters Thursday she’s happy Ford is on her side on this issue, but added she is disappointed the motion didn’t pass.
“The premier needs to talk to his people and make sure they do the right thing,” she said.
Stiles first urged Arnott to reconsider the ban in an April 12 letter. She said concerns over the directive first surfaced after being flagged by members of her staff, however they have gained prominence after Sarah Jama, Independent MPP for Hamilton Centre, posted about the issue on X, formerly Twitter.
Jama was removed from the NDP caucus for her social media comments on the Israel-Hamas war shortly after Oct. 7.
Jama has said she believes she was kicked out of the party because she called for a ceasefire in Gaza “too early” and because she called Israel an “apartheid state.”
Arnott told reporters Thursday that he began examining a ban on the Keffiyeh after one MPP made a complaint about another MPP, who he believes was Jama, who was wearing one.
Liberals also call for reversal
Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie also called for a reversal of the ban on Wednesday night.
“Here in Ontario, we are home to a diverse group of people from so many backgrounds. This is a time when leaders should be looking for ways to bring people together, not to further divide us. I urge Speaker Arnott to immediately reconsider this move to ban the keffiyeh,” Crombie said.
Keffiyehs are a common garment across the Arab world, but they hold a special meaning in the Palestinian resistance movement.
Stiles said MPPs have worn kilts, kirpans, vyshyvankas and chubas in the legislature, saying such items of clothing not only have national and cultural associations, but have also been considered at times as “political symbols in need of suppression.”
She said Indigenous and non-Indigenous members have also dressed in traditional regalia and these items cannot be separated from their historical and political significance.
“The wearing of these important cultural and national clothing items in our Assembly is something we should be proud of. It is part of the story of who we are as a province,” she said.
“Palestinians are part of that story, and the keffiyeh is a traditional clothing item that is significant not only to them but to many members of Arab and Muslim communities. That includes members of my staff who have been asked to remove their keffiyehs in order to come to work. This is unacceptable.”
Stiles added that House of Commons and other provincial legislatures allow the wearing of keffiyehs in their chambers and the ban makes Ontario an “outlier.”
Suppression of cultural symbols part of genocide: MPP
Jama said on X that the ban is “unsurprising” but “nonetheless concerning” in a country that has a legacy of colonialism. “Part of committing genocide is the forceful suppression of cultural identity and cultural symbols,” she said in part.
“Seeing those in power in this country at all levels of government, from federal all the way down to school boards, aid Israel’s colonial regime with these tactics in the oppression of Palestinian people proves that reconciliation is nothing but a word when spoken by state powers,” she said.
Amira Elghawaby, Canada’s Special Representative on Combatting Islamophobia, said on X that it is “deeply ironic” on that keffiyehs were banned in the Ontario legislature on the 42nd anniversary of Canada’s Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
“This is wrong and dangerous as we have already seen violence and exclusion impact Canadians, including Muslims of Palestinian descent, who choose to wear this traditional Palestinian clothing,” Elghawaby said.
Arnott said the keffiyeh was not considered a “form of protest” in the legislature prior to statements and debates that happened in the House last fall.
“These items are not absolutes and are not judged in a vacuum,” he said.
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Best in Canada: Jets Beat Canucks to Finish Season as Top Canadian Club The Hockey News
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Health Canada will change its longstanding policy restricting gay and bisexual men from donating to sperm banks in Canada, CTV News has learned.
The federal health agency has adopted a revised directive removing the ban on gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men, effective May 8.
The policy change would remove the current donor screening criteria, allowing men who have sex with men to legally donate sperm for the first time in more than 30 years, as part of the anonymous donation process.
This update comes after CTV News first reported last year that a gay man was taking the federal government to court, challenging the constitutionality of the policy on the basis that it violates the right to equality in the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
According to an email Health Canada sent stakeholders informing them of the upcoming amendments to the federal directive, “sperm donors will instead be asked gender-neutral, sexual behaviour-based donor screening questions,” more in-line with the 2022 change made by Canadian Blood Services to its donation policy.
However, instead of entirely eradicating restrictions for gay and bisexual men, lawyer Gregory Ko – whose client, Aziz M., brought the case – cautioned that Health Canada will continue to bar donations from those who have had new or multiple partners in the last three months, based on rules regarding anal sex. CTV News has agreed to protect the full identity of Aziz M. out of concerns for his privacy.
Ko said while the update is an important milestone, his client intends to maintain his challenge against the Health Canada directive, “and the continued discrimination contained in this latest revision.”
“Based on our understanding of the science, there is no scientific justification for screening criteria that continues to discriminate on the basis of sexual activity and sexual orientation, since the testing and quarantine protocols already in place allow sperm banks to detect relevant infections and exclude such donations,” Ko said.
Currently, a Health Canada directive prohibits gay and bisexual men from donating sperm to a sperm bank for general use, unless they’ve been abstinent for three months or are donating to someone they know.
For example, it stops any gay man who is sexually active from donating, even if they are in a long-term monogamous relationship.
Under the “Safety of Sperm and Ova Regulation,” sperm banks operating in Canada must deem these prospective donors “unsuitable,” despite all donations being subject to screening, testing and a six-month quarantine before they can be used.
While the directive does not mention transgender or non-binary donors, the policy also applies to individuals who may not identify as male but would be categorized as men under the directive.
It’s a blanket policy that the Toronto man bringing the lawsuit said made him feel like a “second-class citizen,” and goes to the heart of the many barriers that exist for LGBTQ2S+ Canadians looking to have children.
When CTV News first reported on the lawsuit, Health Canada and various federal ministers said they would be “exploring” a policy change, citing the progress made on blood donation rules.
The update comes following “the consultations held in August 2023 and January 2024,” according to Health Canada.
This is a breaking news story, more to come…
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