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A second coronavirus lockdown in Canada? Experts discuss the likelihood – Global News

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Like many things coronavirus-related, the chance Canada will need to tighten restrictions again is hard to predict, according to disease experts.

Ontario, B.C. and Alberta are all seeing cases climb, although the numbers are a far cry from the daily counts in March and April.

Experts aren’t convinced we’re on track for a second lockdown. In fact, some are cautiously optimistic.

Read more:
Lockdowns and a second wave? What the coronavirus pandemic could look like this fall

“It’s less likely to occur this time around because preparations have been made this time,” said Dr. Alon Vaisman, an infectious disease and infection control physician at the University Health Network in Toronto.

“But that doesn’t mean it’s off the table.”

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Recent modelling data from the Public Health Agency of Canada lays out the best- and worst-case scenarios over fall and winter.

The best case: Canada sees multiple small spikes in cases — fluctuating numbers — over the next few months. The worst case: Canada falls into a second wave that overwhelms the health system, followed by smaller spikes over the following months.






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Young people making up majority of new coronavirus cases in Ontario


Young people making up majority of new coronavirus cases in Ontario

The data makes it clear “there’s always the possibility” that things could get worse again, Vaisman said, “but it’s hard to know how likely that will be.”

“This is a back-and-forth thing. Ultimately, people should expect a dynamic situation.”

How could we know?

A second wave of the virus would be the first sign of tightening up again.

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Although there’s no set number of cases that would define a second wave — simply the slope of the curve rising rapidly — there’s “no question” Canada will see some form of one, said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto.

But for things to shut down, he said the rise in cases would need to be substantial enough that it “overwhelms” the ability to rapidly test and trace contacts.

Read more:
Coronavirus cases could exceed Canada’s health care capacity this fall, officials warn

“That’s the line in the sand,” Furness said. “As soon as we lose that, we’re in trouble. We have uncontrolled spread.”

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Summertime has so far provided a buffer for the virus’s spread, said Furness. As colder conditions force more people inside, cases will likely “bloom,” he said, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Canada will revert to March-level lockdown orders.

Since the pandemic’s onset in the spring, Canada has ramped up testing and contract tracing, secured more personal protective equipment (PPE), enhanced public health measures, increased compliance to those measures and “transformed” its health-care system to handle this type of emergency, Furness said.

There will inevitably be outbreaks, he acknowledged, but that won’t force everyone to shut themselves in.

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“We will be smarter in how we respond and how we defend ourselves against COVID in a way that we just weren’t in March.”






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Coronavirus: New COVID-19 cases reported at some businesses in Toronto malls


Coronavirus: New COVID-19 cases reported at some businesses in Toronto malls

What could happen?

Canada will likely take cues from other countries that have endured somewhat of a second wave, the experts agree.

Places like Spain and France have recently seen large increases in cases, but not in deaths and hospitalizations. It has prompted some tightened restrictions, but nowhere near the curfews and shuttered economies of March and April.

“A lockdown would only be considered if health system capacity gets overwhelmed, which does not seem to be the scenario in European countries, which opened earlier than us,” said Dr. Prabhat Jha, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto and director of the Centre for Global Health Research at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto.

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There are a number of factors contributing to this, Jha said, which are being reflected in Canada.

Read more:
Coronavirus prevention crushed Australia’s flu season. Can Canada expect the same?

For one, he said more young people are getting tested and showing up in testing data. There’s also a better understanding of triaging and protecting hospitals and nursing homes.

“Elder folks are exposed less to younger folks now. They’re more isolated,” he said.

Vaisman believes Canada would see a “reverse of phases” if cases spike again, with higher-risk activities being shut down while lower-risk ones are maintained.

It would cascade from there. Should lower-risk things become higher risk as cases continue to climb, more closures could be imposed.

“There’s low-hanging fruit that we can cut out first,” Vaisman said.






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Coronavirus: WHO “fully supports” students returning to school


Coronavirus: WHO “fully supports” students returning to school

Schools a ‘big test’

Schools are a “major variable” in what could worsen the COVID-19 situation in Canada, lending way to more tightened restrictions, said Vaisman.

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“It will be a major test of our system because it essentially introduces a breakage in a lot of people’s bubbles and opens up potential chains of transmission with lots and lots of people,” he said.

“And then we’ll be waiting two or more weeks after the date of opening to really understand the effect of that.”

Some countries have had to close schools a second time when outbreaks swept through classrooms. Israel closed schools two weeks after fully reopening them, as did South Korea and some in Germany.

“Every time you open something up, you’re throwing coins on the risk pile. You’re making that bigger,” Furness said. “If you want a balance, every time you throw something on the risk pile, you need to throw something on the same pile. Opening schools is throwing a lot in the risk pile.”

Read more:
After-school programs an ‘afterthought’ in COVID-19 guidelines, advocates say

Can we avoid it?

The tried-and-true protocols — hand hygiene, mask-wearing, physical distancing — are and will continue to be crucial as Canada heads into fall and winter.

“Mask-wearing is an enormous tool that we have and we’re seeing high compliance,” Furness said. “Compliance tends to go up when things get scary, not down.”

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Bolstering testing is another way to ramp up protections, said Vaisman. He pointed to pressure to expedite Health Canada approval for at-home testing kits and saliva testing as ways to simplify testing and make it more accessible.






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Coronavirus: Canada’s top doctor suggests younger people give COVID Alert app a try


Coronavirus: Canada’s top doctor suggests younger people give COVID Alert app a try

A push to get more Canadians on the country’s coronavirus exposure notification app, Covid Alert, is also an important tactic, said Jha.

The app has been downloaded roughly 2.2 million times in the first month it launched, but just 90 people have logged a COVID-19 diagnosis so far. Experts are worried it’s not enough.

“It’s been poorly promoted,” said Jha. “Where’s the advertising? Why aren’t bars and restaurants trying a ‘no app, no entry’ approach? Without high coverage of the app, it won’t be effective.”

Ultimately, Canadians looking for “light at the end of the tunnel” might have to look past winter when flu season passes and a vaccine draws closer, said Vaisman.

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“There’s no reason why a lockdown can’t happen, but you just have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.”

— with files from the Associated Press and Global News’ Leslie Young

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Bad traffic, changed plans: Toronto braces for uncertainty of its Taylor Swift Era

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TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?

It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.

And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.

Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.

Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.

Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.

“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.

Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.

“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.

“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”

Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.

“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.

“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”

Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.

In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.

“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.

Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.

“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.

Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.

Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.

“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.

“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”

Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.

A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.

“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.

Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.

“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.

“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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‘It’s literally incredible’: Swifties line up for merch ahead of Toronto concerts

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TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.

Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.

Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.

Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.

Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.

“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”

The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.

Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.

“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.

Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.

The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.

Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.

But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.

Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.

“It’s literally incredible.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Via Rail seeks judicial review on CN’s speed restrictions

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OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.

The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.

It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.

CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.

The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.

Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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