An exposé on Giorgia Meloni’s longtime partner caught on tape sexually harassing female colleagues was likely not the news Italy’s prime minister hoped would mark her one-year anniversary in power.
But Meloni, who began her mandate a year ago Sunday, pounced on the disclosure with the same firmness she’s displayed during her ascent from the leader of an outlying far-right party to Italy’s first female prime minister.
After the audio was released, Meloni announced she was splitting from Andrea Giambruno, a TV presenter with whom she shares a daughter. She made no reference to his behaviour but sent a message to her critics:
“P.S. For all those who hoped to weaken me by striking me at home, remember: as much as the drop can hope to break the rock, the rock remains rock and the drop is only water,” she wrote on X.
While Meloni’s choice of metaphor betrays a misunderstanding of geology, it does reflect the rock-hard resolve and restraint she’s shown in biding her time through a turbulent decade of Italian politics to rise from the far-right fringes and claim centre stage.
A divided left-wing opposition has helped. Its two leaders, the relative newcomer, Democratic Party president Elly Schein, and Giuseppe Conte, head of the populist Five Star Movement, have been unable to put aside differences and mount a joint opposition capable of appealing to voters beyond the Italian left’s historic 35 per cent base.
Elly Schlein, leader of the Democratic Party, talks in the lower house of the Italian Parliament in Rome in March. Meloni’s rise to power has been helped by the inability of the left to mount a joint opposition that can garner more than 35 per cent of the vote. (Andrew Medichini/The Associated Press)
Regular street protests that have long marked the Italian left have all but disappeared, further evidence of the general political fatigue that came into sharp focus with record-low turnout in the national election last year that ushered in Meloni.
“Usually, Italian politics are somewhat comical,” said Giovanni Orsina, director of the school of government at Luiss University in Rome. “But by Italian standards, we’re in a moment of unusual stability.”
Stability, though, can be another word for stagnation.
Police push back students demonstrating against Meloni in Turin on Oct. 3. The once common street protests of the Italian left area less frequent occurrence these days. (Marco Alpozzi/LaPresse/The Associated Press)
Debt-laden economy is vulnerable
Meloni inherited an economy with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 144 per cent. That has come down a few points over the past year thanks to some GDP growth, but with the threat of the conflict in the Middle East expanding, inflation, oil prices and the cost of imports could all go up – no small peril for a country with a gargantuan debt.
“Any danger for the Meloni government will come from the economy,” said Italian economist Valentina Meliciani, director of the Luiss School of European Political Economy in Rome.
Italy has received billions of euros in pandemic-recovery funds from the European Union. The money comes with a timeline and conditions on how to spend it.
Because of those constraints, and the country’s debt, Meloni has little choice but to stick to the economic plans laid out by her predecessor, former EU Central Bank head Mario Draghi.
That has calmed markets but given her virtually no wiggle room. When she has tried to introduce populist measures, such as a last-minute tax on extra bank profits and a loosening of the limit on cash transactions, they’ve backfired.
“Her promises to reform previous policies have all been postponed,” said Meliciani.
WATCH | Berlusconi helped get Meloni elected but died in June:
Silvio Berlusconi remembered for sex scandals, corruption and charisma
4 months ago
Duration 2:04
Featured VideoFormer Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who began as a nightclub singer and made billions in the construction and media industries, died Monday at 86. He was being remembered for numerous sex scandals, allegations of corruption and his charismatic ability to wield power.
Spending on future generations falls short of need
Even with the EU funds, spending on future generations has been underwhelming, say economists, with the need to reduce the deficit trumping all else.
The downward slide in the birth rate, with fewer births than deaths almost every year in the past three decades, is the elephant in the room, with no clear plan to counter Italy’s “demographic winter” by introducing supports for working mothers or boosting immigration.
At the same time, under Meloni, the Italian parliament approved a bill criminalizing people who go abroad to have children via surrogacy and forced local authorities to stop registering the children of same-sex couples to both parents.
People attend a Pride parade in Rome in June 10. Meloni’s government has been criticized for its stance on LGBTQ rights, including the demand that local authorities register only the biological parents of children of same-sex couples on birth certificates. (Cecilia Fabiano/LaPresse/The Associated Press)
“It’s been like this for years — not enough money and cutbacks to education,” said Giovanni Cocco, 27, who is doing a second Master’s degree in environmental studies in Rome while working part time as a bicycle courier.
Twenty per cent of 15-29-year-olds in Italy are neither in school nor employed, a proportion second only to Romania within the EU.
Moves to curb migration criticized
But what concerns Cocco as much as the bleak outlook for young people here is what he sees as “the solidification” of the previous government’s moves to criminalize migration.
Italy has extended to 18 months its right to keep migrants in detention centres while awaiting repatriation unless they can pay the equivalent of more than $7,000 Cdn – a form of extortion, say critics.
In April, it passed a law requiring asylum seekers to live in migrant centres while their claims are decided – a process that can take up to two years — with no access to legal help or language lessons.
A Italian Coast Guard boat carries migrants as tourists watch near the port of the Sicilian island of Lampedusa in southern Italy in September. Meloni’s government has taken hard line on migration. ((Cecilia Fabiano/La Presse/The Associated Press)
Meloni also pushed for a much-criticized EU deal with Tunisia, which in exchange for financial support will block mostly sub-Saharan African migrants from crossing to Italy. She is hoping to strike more such deals with other countries.
“To me, this so-called stability is pacification, voices being shut down,” said Cocco.
The press, too, has been in Meloni’s crosshairs. She sued for libel the anti-Mafia journalist Roberto Saviano, who called her and her government “bastards” over their migration policy. He was handed a suspended fine of 1,000 euros, or $1,450 Cdn, earlier this month, a decision that alarmed free speech advocates.
Supporters admire a Meloni ‘always on the move’
But for some, Meloni has exceeded expectations.
“She’s the most passionate politician Italy has had in years,” said Jole Angelini, who works at a cellphone company call centre outside Rome. “She has paid her dues, and she knows what she’s doing.”
Like many observers, Angelini says Meloni has tempered her far-right tendencies since becoming leader, something Angelini says does not surprise her.
Angelini first became a fan of Meloni a decade ago, shortly after Meloni founded her Brothers of Italy party in late 2012 and had set up a cultural centre in Rome for young party activists, organizing reading groups and political activities.
“My son had been going down a very frightening path of hard-right extremism,” said Angelini, “and when he joined Meloni’s party, it brought him closer to the political mainstream. For us, she saved him.”
Supporters of Brothers of Italy, seen during Meloni’s political campaign in Ancona, in August 2022, see her as a competent and passionate politician who has boosted Italy’s image abroad. (Domenico Stinellis/The Associated Press)
Angelini dismisses some of Meloni’s inflammatory pre-election statements as campaign propaganda. But she agrees with the government passing a law to criminalize surrogacy and its decision to cancel the guaranteed income for families below the poverty threshold, a measure brought in by the former Five Star populist government.
“I know too many people who quit their jobs to receive the guaranteed income but who continue to work under the table,” she said.
She also admires what Meloni has done to promote Italy abroad.
It’s an impression that Enzo Moavero-Milanesi, a two-time former foreign minister under previous coalition and technocrat governments, says is widespread.
“Meloni is seen as having her finger on the pulse more, because she’s a politician, not a technocrat,” he said, referring to former prime minister Mario Draghi support.
“And she’s always on the move, which gives the impression she’s doing a lot. But whether that produces results is still to be seen.”
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, right, speaks with Meloni as outgoing prime minster of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki, looks on at an EU summit in Brussels. With election losses in Poland and Spain, Meloni’s hopes of forging a far-right coalition in Europe are looking less promising. (Geert Vanden Wijngaert/The Associated Press)
Her chances of forging a far-right coalition in Europe, for one, seem less likely now than they did a year ago.
She’s diverged from her political ally Viktor Orban of Hungary on Ukraine and watched as fellow nationalist parties were weakened in Poland and Spain.
“In Europe, the only chance for Meloni to survive is to become more moderate,” said Orsina.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.
The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.
Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.
Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.
Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.
In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
