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A String Of Bullish News Is Propping Up Oil Prices | OilPrice.com

Yousef Alshammari

Dr. Yousef Alshammari is the CEO and Head of Oil Research at CMarkits, London, UK. He is a former Research Fellow at the Organisation of…

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Crude oil markets remained optimistic over the past week supported by several bullish factors. Brent spot prices rose above $46 for the first time since April on a much weaker US dollar, with the dollar index plunging below 94, a level that hasn’t been seen since June 2018. The U.S. dollar was beaten down by rising unemployment data and uncertainty over the trillions in economic stimulus. At the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, the U.S. dollar index was at record high and was viewed as the no.1 safe haven asset, but during the last few months, investors shifted attention to gold, with bullion prices rising above $2000.

Brent closed the week at $44.40 up by 1.98% w/w while WTI closed at $41.22 up by 2.30% w/w. For the month of August, we forecast an average Brent of $45, compared with a forecast of $43 and $40 for the past two months, respectively. 

Despite this bullish sentiment, markets continue to be corrected by concerns about the slow demand recovery. Reports reflect rising COVID-19 cases in the United States and in India. In the United States, the number of daily COVID-19 cases rebounded to exceed 55 thousand new cases reported last week. In India, daily cases rebounded to new, unprecedented levels, with authorities reporting more than 65 thousand cases a day last week.  

Decline in inventories may slow as driving season ends 

In line with bullish sentiment, the EIA commercial crude inventories continued to decline despite rising cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Commercial crude oil inventories dropped by 7.4 million barrels w/w to stand at 518.6 million barrels, which is 79.7 million barrels above its level at the same time last year. Subject to a continued rise in economic activities, a limited impact of a 2nd wave of COVID-19, and 100% compliance to OPEC+ output cuts, we expect commercial inventories to return below 450 million barrels by Q2 2021. The past couple of months netted a decline in U.S. commercial crude inventories, declining by 6.9 million barrels in June and by 32 million barrels in July. 

The decline in the U.S. commercial crude inventories was combined with a net rise in crude imports and refining runs, showing positive signs of demand recovery. 

Imports rose by 0.864 million bbl/d w/w while exports dropped by 0.392 million bbl/d w/w. The US refining utilisation factor currently stands at 79.6% of the total capacity, 18.4 million bbl/d, this is only 15.23% below its pre-crisis levels.  Related: Oil Prices Post Weekly Gain Despite Struggling Demand

Last week, refining runs rose by 42 thousand bbl/d to stand at 14.637 million bbl/d. On the other hand, the EIA reported a rise in gasoline and middle distillates inventories by 0.419 million barrels and 1.6 million barrels w/w, respectively, which may be attributed to the sharp decline in crude inventories. 

OPEC+ reaffirms its commitment towards full compliance 

The Energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq held a telephone call last week to review market developments and affirm commitment to full OPEC+ compliance. Iraq confirmed that it will cut 400 thousand bbl/d on top of its 850 thousand bbl/d required cuts bringing its total cuts to 1.25 million bbl/d in the months of August and September. It is expected that Iraq’s total production in August and September will average 3.4 million bbl/d. Compliance levels of other African producers is also expected to reach 100% in Q3, especially Nigeria and Angola which managed to achieve 60% and 89%, respectively, in June according to Platts. These factors continue to weigh in the markets as seen in the Monday trading session showing Brent trading well above $44. 

Aramco slashes its OSP while delivering resilient results in Q2  

Aramco has announced major discounts on its crude grades shipped to NW Europe ($1.8-$2.8), the Mediterranean ($1.1-$2.5) and to Asia ($0.30), while keeping its prices unchanged to the United States for the month of September. Discounts were mainly driven by the OPEC+ production hikes, a rise in Chinese crude inventories, and sluggish demand growth in Europe and in India. It is clear that bigger discounts to NW Europe and to the Mediterranean are a move from the Saudi giant to increase its market share in these markets, and to position its grades to compete against popular blends such as Urals, whose prices have been falling throughout the month of July due to low refining margins. 

Aramco has announced its Q2 2020 financial results reporting a net income of $6.6 billion compared to $24.7 billion in Q2 2019 showing a decline by around 73%. Furthermore, a net income in the H1 2020 was reported to be $23.2 billion compared to $46.9 billion in H1 2019, showing a decline by around 50%.  

Given the financial strength of Aramco, it confirmed that it will continue to pay dividends to its shareholders, which currently stand at $18.75 billion (some $5.35 billion higher than in Q2 2019), despite a major decline in its profitability. While most other oil companies reported net losses, with the exception of Shell, we believe a major factor in Aramco profitability are the low operating costs compared to other oil majors, currently in the range of $10-$15/bbl. 

By Yousef Alshammari for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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