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A Toronto-Montreal high-speed rail would be an investment in jobs and a green Canada – WellandTribune.ca

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The Liberal government recently announced new income support measures, including an extension of the CERB program until September and easing EI eligibility criteria through 2021.

The package, estimated to cost $37 billion, is important — providing much-needed relief to those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic — but to reignite the damaged Canadian economy, it can only get us so far.

Canada’s unemployment rate is still extremely high. According to Statistics Canada, it stands at 10.9 per cent, down somewhat from May’s record high of 13.7 per cent.

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Despite this small decline, almost 2.2 million Canadians were unemployed in July, nearly twice as many as in February. Clearly, the country needs jobs, and for jobs, real investments are required.

This comes at a time when another front is in urgent need of action — the fight against climate change.

Since first elected, Trudeau’s government has often spoken about the need to invest in Canada’s transition to a zero-carbon economy, but no meaningful action has been taken.

Even the assignment of a special “green recovery task force” didn’t result in any concrete action for emerging from the pandemic through sustainable investments.

Canada’s actions are disappointing when compared to other countries. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis, France and Germany, for example, have committed $36.7 and $27.1 billion (U.S.) respectively in funding for clean energy projects. Democratic candidate Joe Biden also revealed a $2-trillion (U.S.) climate plan over four years.

At the same time, Canada has committed only $2.4 billion (U.S.) for clean initiatives.

But it seems that finally, five years after Trudeau came to power, the stars are aligned for his government to make bold investments in the spirit of a Green New Deal that would tackle both crises at the same time.

Helping it first is the current composition of the government. Bill Morneau, who clashed with Trudeau over the scope and scale of proposed green initiatives, is now out of the way.

Chrystia Freeland, the newly appointed finance minister, seems on board, telling reporters just a few days ago: “All Canadians understand that the restart of our economy needs to be green. It also needs to be equitable and inclusive.”

And behind the scenes, it is going to be climate-champion Mark Carney, who was hired as an informal adviser to the prime minister. The former central bank governor will provide economic expertise through a climate-change prism.

The second piece of the puzzle is the fact that Canada can take advantage of historically low borrowing rates to finance its Green New Deal investments.

Sure, the deficit it’s running is massive, and will have to be dealt with in future years. But real investments are an absolute must to get people back to work, and we can take comfort in the fact that the country can borrow money almost for free.

For example, Canada can now issue 30-year government bonds and pay its debt-holders just over 1 per cent in annual interest.

In fact, Canada can lock in historically low borrowing rates for a period as long as 50 years. It already once before (in 2014) issued ultralong bonds (maturing in 2046), which at current prices pay only 1.03 per cent in annual interest.

With the cabinet on board and cheap financing readily available, what kind of investments should the government pursue as part of its green recovery plan?

One such project could be introducing a high-speed rail between Toronto and Montreal. A few months ago, I argued on these pages that such a service is a great idea not only environmentally but also financially.

A Toronto-Montreal connection (potentially linking Ottawa) would hit the “sweet spot” of city-to-city high-speed routes that can be operationally profitable.

Hence, a project like this has all the desirable features that the government is seeking. It will create thousands of jobs and support Canadian companies; it is green by definition; it is a long-term investment that has many positive externalities; and it can be financed cheaply. What’s not to like?

For additional ideas the government may consult the Task Force for a Resilient Recovery, an independent group of Canadian finance, policy and sustainability leaders who recently published a preliminary report with suggestions for $50 billion of green investments mostly in the areas of climate-resilient and energy-efficient buildings, zero-emission vehicles and renewable energy.

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The upcoming speech from the throne is scheduled for September 23. Let’s hope that it will include a commitment to build a Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal high-speed rail as part of a radical green plan.

Trudeau’s government must deliver on its promise to transition Canada to a zero-carbon future, making sure this transition is inclusive and equitable, to use Freeland’s words.

Financed at 1 per cent for 50 years? Now that’s also a bargain.

Amir Barnea is an associate professor of finance at HEC Montréal and a freelance contributing columnist for the Star. You can follow him on twitter: @abarnea1

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BWXT announces $80M investment for plant in Cambridge – CityNews Kitchener

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BWX Technologies (BWXT) in Cambridge is investing $80-million to expand their nuclear manufacturing plant in Cambridge.

Minister of Energy, Todd Smith, was in the city on Friday to join the company in the announcement.

The investment will create over 200 new skilled and unionized jobs. This is part of the province’s plan to expand affordable and clean nuclear energy to power the economy.

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“With shovels in the ground today on new nuclear generation, including the first small modular reactor in the G7, I’m so pleased to see global nuclear manufacturers like BWXT expanding their operations in Cambridge and hiring more Ontario workers,” Smith said. “The benefits of Ontario’s nuclear industry reaches far beyond the stations at Darlington, Pickering and Bruce, and this $80 million investment shows how all communities can help meet Ontario’s growing demand for clean energy, while also securing local investments and creating even more good-paying jobs.”

The added jobs will support BWXT’s existing operations across the province as well as help the sector’s ongoing operations of existing nuclear stations at Darlington, Bruce and Pickering.

“Our expansion comes at a time when we’re supporting our customers in the successful execution of some of the largest clean nuclear energy projects in the world,” John MacQuarrie, President of Commercial Operations at BWXT, said.

“At the same time, the global nuclear industry is increasingly being called upon to mitigate the impacts of climate change and increase energy security and independence. By investing significantly in our Cambridge manufacturing facility, BWXT is further positioning our business to serve our customers to produce more safe, clean and reliable electricity in Canada and abroad.”

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AI investments will help chip sector to recover: Analyst – Yahoo Finance

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The semiconductor sector is undergoing a correction as interest rate cut expectations dwindle, prompting concerns about the impact on these high-growth, technology-driven stocks. Wedbush Enterprise Hardware Analyst Matt Bryson joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the dynamics shaping the chip industry.

Bryson acknowledges that the rise of generative AI has been a significant driving force behind the recent success of chip stocks. While he believes that AI is shifting “the way technology works,” he notes it will take time. Due to this, Bryson highlights that “significant investment” will continue to occur in the chip market, fueled by the growth of generative AI applications.

However, Bryson cautions that as interest rates remain elevated, it could “weigh on consumer spending.” Nevertheless, he expresses confidence that the AI revolution “changing the landscape for tech” will likely insulate the sector from the effect of high interest rates, as investors are unwilling to miss out on the “next technology” breakthrough.

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For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance.

This post was written by Angel Smith

Video Transcript

BRAD SMITH: As rate cut bets shift, so have moves in one sector, in particular. Shares of AMD and Intel, both down over 15% in the last 30 days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, also known as Sox, dropping over 10% from recent highs, despite a higher rate environment.

Our next guest is still bullish on the sector. Matt Bryson, Wedbush Enterprise Hardware analyst, joins us now. Matt, thanks so much for taking the time here. Walk us through your thesis here, especially, given some of the pullback that we’ve seen recently.

MATT BRYSON: So I think what we’ve seen over the last year or so is that the growth of generative AI has fueled the chip stocks. And the expectation that AI is going to shift everything in the way that technology works.

And I think that at the end of the day, that that thesis will prove out. I think the question is really timing. But the investments that we’ve seen that have lifted NVIDIA, that have lifted AMD, that have lifted the chip stock and sector, in general, the large cloud service providers, building out data centers. I don’t think anything has changed there in the near term.

So when I speak to OEMs, who are making AI servers, when I speak to cloud service providers, there is still significant investment going on in that space. That investment is slated to continue certainly into 2025. And I think, as long as there is this substantial investment, that we will see chip names report strong numbers and guide for strong growth.

SEANA SMITH: Matt, when it comes to the fact that we are in this macroeconomic environment right now, likelihood that rates will be higher for longer here, at least, when you take a look at the expectations, especially following some of the commentary that we got from Fed officials this week, what does that signal more broadly for the AI trade, meaning, is there a reason to be a bit more cautious in this higher for longer rate environment, at least, in the near term?

MATT BRYSON: Yeah. I think certainly from a market perspective, high interest rates weight on the market. Eventually, they weigh on consumer spending. Certainly, for a lot of the chip names, they’re high multiple stocks.

When you think about where there can be more of a reaction or a negative reaction to high interest rates, certainly, it has some impact on those names. But in terms of, again, AI changing the fundamental landscape for tech, I don’t think that high interest rates or low interest rates will change that.

So when you think about Microsoft, Amazon, all of those large data center operators looking at AI, potentially, changing the landscape forever and wanting to make a bet on AI to make sure that they don’t miss that change, I don’t think whether interest rates are low or high are going to really affect their investment.

I think they’re going to go ahead and invest because no one wants to be the guy that missed the next technology wave.

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If pension funds can't see the case for investing in Canada, why should you? – The Globe and Mail

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It’s time to ask a rude question: Is Canada still worth investing in?

Before you rush to deliver an appropriately patriotic response, think about the issue for a moment.

A good place to begin is with the federal government’s announcement this week that it is forming a task force under former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz. The task force’s job will be to find ways to encourage Canadian pension funds to invest more of their assets in Canada.

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Wooing pension funds has become a high-priority matter for Ottawa because, at the moment, these big institutional investors don’t invest all that much in Canada. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, for instance, had a mere 14 per cent of its massive $570-billion portfolio in Canadian assets at the end of its last fiscal year.

Other major Canadian pension plans have similar allocations, especially if you look beyond their holdings of government bonds and consider only their investments in stocks, infrastructure and real assets. When it comes to such risky assets, these big, sophisticated players often see more potential for good returns outside of Canada than at home.

This leads to a simple question: If the CPPIB and other sophisticated investors aren’t overwhelmed by Canada’s investment appeal, why should you and I be?

It’s not as if Canadian stocks have a record of outstanding success. Over the past decade, they have lagged far behind the juicy returns of the U.S.-based S&P 500.

To be fair, other countries have also fallen short of Wall Street’s glorious run. Still, Canadian stocks have only a middling record over the past 10 years even when measured against other non-U.S. peers. They have trailed French and Japanese stocks and achieved much the same results as their Australian counterparts. There is no obvious Canadian edge.

There are also no obvious reasons to think this middle-of-the-pack record will suddenly improve.

A generation of mismanagement by both major Canadian political parties has spawned a housing crisis and kneecapped productivity growth. It has driven household debt burdens to scary levels.

Policy makers appear unwilling to take bold action on many long-standing problems. Interprovincial trade barriers remain scandalously high, supply-managed agriculture continues to coddle inefficient small producers, and tax policy still pushes people to invest in homes rather than in productive enterprises.

From an investor’s perspective, the situation is not that appetizing. A handful of big banks, a cluster of energy producers and a pair of railways dominate Canada’s stock market. They are solid businesses, yes, but they are also mature industries, with less than thrilling growth prospects.

What is largely missing from the Canadian stock scene are big companies with the potential to expand and innovate around the globe. Shopify Inc. SHOP-T and Brookfield Corp. BN-T qualify. After that, the pickings get scarce, especially in areas such as health care, technology and retailing.

So why hold Canadian stocks at all? Four rationales come to mind:

  • Canadian stocks have lower political risk than U.S. stocks, especially in the run-up to this year’s U.S. presidential election. They also are far away from the front lines of any potential European or Asian conflict.
  • They are cheaper than U.S. stocks on many metrics, including price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios and dividend yields. Scored in terms of these standard market metrics, they are valued more or less in line with European and Japanese stocks, according to Citigroup calculations.
  • Canadian dividends carry some tax advantages and holding reliable Canadian dividend payers means you don’t have to worry about exchange-rate fluctuations.
  • Despite what you may think, Canada’s fiscal situation actually looks relatively benign. Many countries have seen an explosion of debt since the pandemic hit, but our projected deficits are nowhere near as worrisome as those in the United States, China, Italy or Britain, according to International Monetary Fund figures.

How compelling you find these rationales will depend upon your personal circumstances. Based strictly on the numbers, Canadian stocks look like ho-hum investments – they’re reasonable enough places to put your money, but they fail to stand out compared with what is available globally.

Canadians, though, have always displayed a striking fondness for homebrew. Canadian stocks make up only a smidgen of the global market – about 3 per cent, to be precise – but Canadians typically pour more than half of their total stock market investments into Canadian stocks, according to the International Monetary Fund. This home market bias is hard to justify on any rational basis.

What is more reasonable? Vanguard Canada crunched the historical data in a report last year and concluded that Canadian investors could achieve the best balance between risk and reward by devoting only about 30 per cent of their equity holdings to Canadian stocks.

This seems to be more or less in line with what many Canadian pension funds currently do. They have about half their portfolio in equities, so devoting 30 per cent of that half to domestic stocks works out to holding about 15 per cent of their total portfolio in Canadian equities.

That modest allocation to Canadian stocks is a useful model for Canadian investors of all sizes. And if Ottawa doesn’t like it? Perhaps it could do more to make Canada an attractive investment destination.

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