ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — At the beginning of March, Joey Conicella and Alex Marin were riding high. Their new Orlando restaurant, Hungry Pants, had drawn rave reviews. With revenue rising, they planned to hire more servers. Sunday brunch service was coming soon.
That was just before the coronavirus struck suddenly, forcing them to close. But in May, as authorities eased safety and social-distancing rules, Hungry Pants reopened at smaller capacity, fueled by hope, hand sanitizer and a government loan.
Now, a spike in confirmed viral cases is making Conicella and Marin anxious about the future — for their business and for the region — even as they keep their restaurant open.
“It’s been a roller-coaster ride,” Conicella said glumly.
For residents across America’s Sun Belt — business owners and workers, consumers and home buyers — the past three months have delivered about the scariest ride in memory. With confirmed viral cases surging through the region, it’s far from clear whether the stops, starts and bumps in the economy have ended. Or are they the new normal? Will the Sun Belt remain gripped by doubt and uncertainty for months or years?
What is clear is that no one feels able to relax and assume the best.
“I’m very nervous,” said Danielle Judge, owner of Rowdy’s Pet Resort in Apollo Beach. “I’ve put my life’s work into this business, and it’s really hanging on a thread.”
Judge had thought the worst was over after she had managed to reopen in May and her loan from the government’s Paycheck Protection Program had gone through. Now, her business is stalling once again as reported viral infections have accelerated. Again, she’s worried.
“I didn’t fathom that a whole country could stay shut down and affect people’s businesses and people’s livelihoods for the duration of time that it has,” Judge said.
That unease stems from a disturbing truth about the pandemic: No one, not even the top experts, can say when a vaccine or an effective treatment might be in sight.
“We don’t know when this Covid-19 is going to end,” said Aakash Patel of Tampa, who runs Elevate, a consulting firm involved in public relations and marketing for businesses.
Patel had thought things would return to “normal” by perhaps September. Now, he’s thinking January. And he’s trying to stay upbeat.
“We all fell together,” he said. “We’re all going to rise together.”
It isn’t just business owners in the region who fear for the future. It’s consumers, too.
In Scottsdale, Arizona, Jim and Bobbi Moss had been banking on what looked like a promising economic rebound, only to lose some hope and retreat into a strict limit on their discretionary spending. They now make all their meals at home, and online shopping, Bobbi Moss said, is limited to items that “sustain daily living.”
“We’re not spending online, saying, ‘Gee, it might be nice to have this or do that,’ “she said. “We’re not doing any of that.”
The couple, who run a tax consulting and financial services business, say many of their clients — from couples in their 30s to retirees in their 80s — feel whip-lashed by an economic stall-out after the brief rebound a few weeks ago. Clients are rethinking investments, Jim Moss said, or delaying home purchases. Some are considering reverse mortgages because they worry about their cash flow.
“Three weeks ago, people were cautiously hopeful,” Bobbi Moss said. “Now, it’s frustration.”
In Arizona, Gov. Doug Ducey has ordered bars, nightclubs and water parks to close again for at least a month. Those businesses had been allowed to reopen when a previous stay-at-home order expired in mid-May.
In Texas, too, Gov. Greg Abbott in May had green-lighted one of the country’s earliest and most aggressive re-openings. But by the end of June, the state’s daily rates of newly confirmed cases and hospitalizations had quadrupled.
So last week, the governor reversed course. He shuttered bars, restricting restaurant dining and barred elective surgeries in eight counties. On Thursday, he went further: He issued a mandatory face-mask order for most of the state.
Florida officials have also shut down bars for a second time. Yet the state’s approach has been defined by a patchwork of varying rules, with officials in South Florida, where viral cases have spiked, being the most stringent. In Central Florida, by contrast, some theme parks have reopened. Disney’s Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom are set to reopen July 11, Epcot and Hollywood Studios four days later.
Danielle Savin has been a personal witness to the wildly uneven ways in which states have responded to the virus.
Savin owns two bars — one in New York, one in Miami — that were forced to close for months. When the pandemic first hit and New York was the country’s epicenter, she feared most for her business there. No longer. Now, it’s the Miami location she worries most about. She’s required to close it at midnight because confirmed cases in Florida have soared.
“Being in Florida right now with COVID is like trying to play Pin the Tail on the Donkey at a 5-year-old’s birthday,” said Savin, co-owner of Bob’s Your Uncle, a bar with a neighbourhood vibe that had been open a year when the virus struck.
The business model had to be swiftly changed, with more focus on food, more kitchen staff and a staggering of shifts to comply with restrictions. Sales have declined, though. Savin and her co-owner have been working with their landlord to help with rent payments. Still, she started a GoFundMe page that has raised about $3,000 to help struggling employees.
“It did feel when we reopened again that we had to open a restaurant from scratch,” she said.
It is a sentiment felt, too, by Joe Ables, who owns Saxon Pub, a live-music venue in Austin, Texas. Ables had closed his doors in March. He didn’t reopen even when Texas allowed it at up to 50 per cent customer capacity.
“I lose less money by staying closed,” Ables said.
He sought and received federal aid to support his six full-time employees. But given that Texas has now shuttered its bars twice, he’s settling in for what he fears will be a long dark period for businesses like his. Ables thinks the state will be cautious and likely slow about reopening them again.
In Austin, which bills itself as the “Live Music Capital of the World,” Ables has watched some clubs close for good and musicians and production workers leave the city. The state’s second shutdown of bars could inflict further damage.
“I’m worried about the club scene,” he said. “There is permanent damage.”
Even so, Ables said he holds out hope for an eventual rebound, perhaps in 2021.
“I think we all have to believe,” he said, “regardless of whether it’s war or famine, that we’re going to come through it.” ___
Vertuno contributed from Austin, Texas. Kelli Kennedy also contributed to this report from Fort Lauderdale.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
