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Afghanistan’s economy is collapsing, the US can help stop it – Al Jazeera English

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The US can allow some money of the Afghan national reserves to be used for economic stabilisation under strict control.

As an Afghan American, I have worked for the last 20 years to try to help the people of my home country overcome economic woes and build a more prosperous economy for all.

Right now, those hopes are in jeopardy. Afghanistan faces one of the most acute crises I have seen in my career – and the antidote remains locked in New York.

In August, the United States froze $9.1bn of Afghanistan’s national reserves held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As a result, the economic situation in the country has deteriorated rapidly. The people of Afghanistan are increasingly unable to afford basic goods, its currency is facing hyper depreciation, and its already fragile economy is on the brink of collapse.

Make no mistake, a catastrophe is imminent. The Central Bank of Afghanistan is supposed to conduct monetary policy operations to control the US dollar to the afghani exchange rate and keep inflation at bay. It has historically leveraged this auction process to produce remarkably stable exchange rates and inflation for a developing economy, in the single digit percentages. But with no access to its dollar-denominated reserves, the Central Bank is not able to perform this critical market stabilising function.

Due to a heavy reliance on imports, the Afghan economy is dependent on the US dollar to function even in normal times. With rising demand for foreign currency and reports of 30 percent depreciation of the afghani against the dollar, the effective price of imported goods has increased by at least 20-30 percent over the last few months.

In a country already devastated by the twin crises of war and COVID-19, the desperate lack of dollars in the market is leaving importers unable to pay for their shipments. Food is becoming scarce and grocery stores are unable to fully restock. As prices rise, people are rushing to withdraw and spend their savings before the banking sector collapses. Private businesses are not able to fund operations, shutting down and laying off the privileged few who still have jobs. A growing number of Afghans are suffering from hunger, poverty, and a lack of access to basic goods and services. In short, the country is in a total humanitarian crisis.

While this will devastate every Afghan, the Taliban government in Kabul will avoid the worst of it. They will blame the US for the country’s economic woes – and so long as they can point to the assets held frozen under US control, the people will believe them.

The choice for the US government is simple: continue down the path that would lead to total economic devastation for millions of people or do what is needed to help the Afghan people.

I propose that the US allow the Central Bank of Afghanistan limited, monitored, and conditional access to $150m per month from Afghanistan’s foreign reserves – roughly half of what the Central Bank would auction off monthly in the past. This common-sense policy would unfetter the bank to fulfill its role of maintaining price stability and prevent this imminent crisis.

The US would have the ability to verify how these funds are used via one of the independent international auditing firms that are still operating in Afghanistan. The transactions between the Central Bank and commercial banks take place on an electronic exchange where each transaction and its value are automatically recorded. If the US finds any misappropriation, it can cut off the funds at any moment. After all, the vast majority would still be deposited at the New York Federal Reserve. This type of leverage is a win-win for the US.

The Central Bank is an entity independent from the Afghan government. For decades, it has helped to achieve and maintain price stability and advance the economy, all the while remaining a beacon of hope and prosperity for Afghanistan. But if it is not allowed access to its reserves, that could all be lost.

As the recent US engagement with the Taliban on the peace deal has shown, Washington has the power to negotiate many issues of national interest without hurting the economic future of the people of Afghanistan.

Afghans deserve to be safe and prosper in their land. But right now, US policy is holding them back. The US must allow the Afghan people access to their own reserves in a monitored, common-sense way, or the country will collapse. We have the power to lift the Afghan people out of this crisis. For the sake of both my home and my adopted country, I hope we act on it.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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