After a record-breaking summer, Canadian real estate braces for autumn uncertainty - CTV News | Canada News Media
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After a record-breaking summer, Canadian real estate braces for autumn uncertainty – CTV News

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TORONTO —
Canada’s housing market shattered records in July despite the economic uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic — and with the usually busy fall real estate season drawing near, experts are divided about whether the boom will continue.

Last month marked the highest monthly sales figure on record, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported, while the national average sales price jumped to a record $571,500.

Part of the fuel behind rising prices has been driven by a change in the real estate cycle, RBC senior economist Robert Hogue said during an RBC podcast earlier this month.

Traditionally, many homebuyers and sellers wait until spring to make deals as snowfall hampers curb appeal. This year, all of the usual spring homebuying fever was pushed into the usually slow summer months as people emerged from lockdown.

Under normal circumstances, real estate agents expect a busy period in early fall as people try to finish their move before winter.

Rachel Gagnon, an Ottawa-based real estate broker at Ian Charlebois & Associates Real Estate & Mortgages, said the demand for housing has stemmed from “stay at home” orders, which left people wishing for more space and amenities.

“Unless a major, and I mean very major, shift was to happen, which would create an influx of properties on the market, things will continue to move as they have over the last few months,” she said.

“As we move forward through August and September, people work through the new school rules, I think we’ll see a fairly large uptick in activity. Unless a second wave shifts things dramatically, I think we’re going to have a very busy fall market that won’t slow down until the Christmas season.”

But Gagnon also said that she has seen the pressure placed on first-time homebuyers, who are trying to get into the market now while they can afford a mortgage, even if it maxes out their borrowing power.

And COVID-19 related travel restrictions have led to slowing immigration and less demand from property buyers seeking rental properties for tourists or students.

The uncertainty means a fall slowdown is possible, said Bethany King, a team leader at Century 21 Millennium Inc. Brokerage in Brampton, Ont.

While some lenders are offering cash back, lending expectations have also changed, said King. For example, some lenders consider essential workers to have better job security should a second COVID-19 wave come.

Fear about a “second wave” in the fall has parents planning to save money, in case children are sent home and parents need to cut back hours and income to focus on caregiving, she said.

“Those are the things that have investors who are regular people — not millionaires that have tons and tons of properties, and are cashing out — preparing for the worst,” King said.

Kean Birch, an associate professor at York University, said he will be watching for the extension or end of mortgage payment deferrals.

“I find it worrying that housing prices are continuing to rise. The reason being that we don’t know what’s going to happen once the mortgage payment deferral ends, and the consequences actually could be dramatic across the board. And it could be highly inequitable as well,” said Birch, who studies economic geography.

Evan Siddall, chief executive of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., wrote a letter earlier this month that said he expects house prices to fall, “even in the face of recent activity, which appears to be the result of very low interest rates and a sharp reduction in new listings.”

“Our projections always anticipated a delayed impact: weakening in late 2020 and 2021 once government income supports unwind,” read the letter.

However, Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, called CMHC’s forecast is “overly pessimistic.”

“Here we are in the second half of 2020, and the national average sales price has risen 14.3 per cent year-over-year,” she said.

“The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 20, 2020.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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