OTTAWA — After two years of pandemic-induced uncertainty, the federal Liberals are getting ready to deliver an updated spending blueprint in a 2022 budget that, by all accounts, has been influenced by fast-changing circumstances.
The result of a tumultuous few weeks is scheduled to be released Thursday, but experts note the uncertainty has not gone away.
High inflation rates may climb further. Unemployment is low, but labour shortages are widespread. Housing prices are rising at paces not seen in years.
And the war in Ukraine continues to send ripples through the global economy and threaten security.
A former Liberal budget director said the government should be careful how it earmarks billions in expected new spending with so many bumps on the economic road ahead.
Robert Asselin, senior vice-president of policy at the Business Council of Canada, says policy-makers never know what will happen and should be careful not to inflame key issues facing the country.
When Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland laid out the broad planks of this year’s budget in late January, she spoke about boosting the country’s economic potential, addressing housing affordability concerns, funding the transition to a green economy and minding high inflation rates.
Inflation rates then rose to a three-decade high in February, and prices have climbed further. The cost of living has become a top economic concern for Canadians, even though it has the effect of padding federal revenues as well.
Still, Asselin said, federal spending that adds to demand in the short term may only pour more gas on the inflationary fire.
“Spending this buffer that the economy is giving them … would be very irresponsible in my view because then you become less prepared for the next crisis,” he said.
The next crisis arrived at the end of February when Russia invaded Ukraine.
The fighting upended global security and created a new budget priority for the Liberals to boost defence spending along with other NATO allies.
On Wednesday, the Liberals voted in favour of a Conservative motion in the House of Commons that called on the federal government to increase defence spending to at least two per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product.
The motion, which did not include a timeline, passed 303-27, with NDP and Green MPs voting against it.
The impacts from the fighting in Ukraine reach beyond the defence budget, said Elliot Hughes with Summa Strategies, pointing to energy prices, geopolitics and international business decisions.
“Ukraine has essentially, in some ways, thrown the government a little bit off course and off schedule in their ability to pull together what I think is what’s needed … which is a well-thought-out economic growth strategy,” said Hughes, who worked as an adviser to Liberal finance and defence ministers.
The economy has fared better than anticipated over the past few months as it churned out growth and shrugged off the Omicron wave in January to see a quick rebound in job numbers.
That rebound along with higher oil prices is expected to pad the government’s bottom line and offset any new spending to be announced.
Some economists argue the Liberals shouldn’t pivot to austerity, noting pockets of weakness in the labour market for low-wage and older workers underneath positive headline figures showing an almost full labour market recovery from the onset of the pandemic.
The Liberals planned to use the jobs market to anchor budget decisions among other measures like a declining debt-to-GDP ratio, which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pointed to Wednesday as a core guardrail on spending.
Alberta Finance Minister Travis Toews said spending anchors provide policy-makers with some stability in uncertain times, adding that keeping the debt-to-GDP ratio declining may also mean reining in some spending plans.
“Our economy’s operating at full capacity,” he said in an interview.
“I think there needs to be a real return to fiscal responsibility, some fiscal prudence in this budget.”
Budget priorities changed again just a few weeks ago.
The Liberals’ deal with the New Democrats to land that party’s support in key parliamentary votes committed the government to billions in new social programs.
The majority of the items in the deal were already reflected in Liberal campaign pledges that could amount to $48.5 billion in net new spending by 2026, said Rebekah Young, Scotiabank’s director of fiscal and provincial economics.
But promises for pharmacare and dental care, depending on how they are implemented, could add up to $20 billion more in spending over the three-year life of the deal, she said.
Trudeau didn’t give any hints about what measures might be in Thursday’s budget, but didn’t suggest the spending taps would be closed.
“The way the economy has come roaring back in Canada, stronger and faster than many other places in the world, is because we were there to support Canadians,” he said, “and we are making sure that we continue to be fiscally responsible.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 6, 2022.
Moe is set to speak in the city of Yorkton about affordability measures this morning before travelling to the nearby village of Theodore for an event with the local Saskatchewan Party candidate.
NDP Leader Carla Beck doesn’t have any events scheduled, though several party candidates are to hold press conferences.
On Thursday, Moe promised a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected.
The NDP said the Saskatchewan Party was punching down on vulnerable children.
Election day is Oct. 28.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is promising a directive banning “biological boys” from using school changing rooms with “biological girls” if re-elected, a move the NDP’s Carla Beck says weaponizes vulnerable kids.
Moe made the pledge Thursday at a campaign stop in Regina. He said it was in response to a complaint that two biological males had changed for gym class with girls at a school in southeast Saskatchewan.
He said the ban would be his first order of business if he’s voted again as premier on Oct. 28.
It was not previously included in his party’s campaign platform document.
“I’ll be very clear, there will be a directive that would come from the minister of education that would say that biological boys will not be in the change room with biological girls,” Moe said.
He added school divisions should already have change room policies, but a provincial directive would ensure all have the rule in place.
Asked about the rights of gender-diverse youth, Moe said other children also have rights.
“What about the rights of all the other girls that are changing in that very change room? They have rights as well,” he said, followed by cheers and claps.
The complaint was made at a school with the Prairie Valley School Division. The division said in a statement it doesn’t comment on specific situations that could jeopardize student privacy and safety.
“We believe all students should have the opportunity to learn and grow in a safe and welcoming learning environment,” it said.
“Our policies and procedures align with the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Saskatchewan Human Rights Code.”
Asked about Moe’s proposal, Beck said it would make vulnerable kids more vulnerable.
Moe is desperate to stoke fear and division after having a bad night during Wednesday’s televised leaders’ debate, she said.
“Saskatchewan people, when we’re at our best, are people that come together and deliver results, not divisive, ugly politics like we’ve seen time and again from Scott Moe and the Sask. Party,” Beck said.
“If you see leaders holding so much power choosing to punch down on vulnerable kids, that tells you everything you need to know about them.”
Beck said voters have more pressing education issues on their minds, including the need for smaller classrooms, more teaching staff and increased supports for students.
People also want better health care and to be able to afford gas and groceries, she added.
“We don’t have to agree to understand Saskatchewan people deserve better,” Beck said.
The Saskatchewan Party government passed legislation last year that requires parents consent to children under 16 using different names or pronouns at school.
The law has faced backlash from some LGBTQ+ advocates, who argue it violates Charter rights and could cause teachers to out or misgender children.
Beck has said if elected her party would repeal that legislation.
Heather Kuttai, a former commissioner with the Saskatchewan Human Rights Commission who resigned last year in protest of the law, said Moe is trying to sway right-wing voters.
She said a change room directive would put more pressure on teachers who already don’t have enough educational support.
“It sounds like desperation to me,” she said.
“It sounds like Scott Moe is nervous about the election and is turning to homophobic and transphobic rhetoric to appeal to far-right voters.
“It’s divisive politics, which is a shame.”
She said she worries about the future of gender-affirming care in a province that once led in human rights.
“We’re the kind of people who dig each other out of snowbanks and not spew hatred about each other,” she said. “At least that’s what I want to still believe.”
Also Thursday, two former Saskatchewan Party government members announced they’re endorsing Beck — Mark Docherty, who retired last year and was a Speaker, and Glen Hart, who retired in 2020.
Ian Hanna, a speech writer and senior political adviser to former Saskatchewan Party premier Brad Wall, also endorsed Beck.
Earlier in the campaign, Beck received support from former Speaker Randy Weekes, who quit the Saskatchewan Party earlier this year after accusing caucus members of bullying.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:
Saskatchewan Party
— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.
— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.
— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.
— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.
— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.
— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.
— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults
— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.
— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.
— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.
— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.
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NDP
— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.
— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.
— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.
— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.
— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.
— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.
— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.
— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.
— Scrap the marshals service.
— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.
— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.
