Alberta election: UCP has slight lead over NDP but leaders in dead heat, Ipsos poll finds | Canada News Media
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Alberta election: UCP has slight lead over NDP but leaders in dead heat, Ipsos poll finds

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While some Albertans have already decided who they are supporting in the provincial election, it appears the vote will come down to who can win over more people in Calgary.

A poll for Global News conducted by market research company Ipsos in the past few days shows that overall, the United Conservative Party has a four-point lead over the Alberta NDP among decided and leaning Alberta voters in the lead-up to May 29 election day.

“A slight lead for the UCP at this point, but everything we see makes perfect sense for what you would expect,” said Kyle Braid, senior vice president of public affairs at Ipsos.

“We have an actual competitive election in Alberta.”

Political analyst Jason Ribeiro said a small lead for the UCP does not surprise him, adding Danielle Smith has done a lot of work to make herself more palatable to the voters since becoming leader of the party in October 2022.

“This is very different than those first few weeks where we saw her put her foot in her mouth a number of times, incoherent policies. Now, they’ve been very clearly gearing up for an election,” Ribeiro said.

“It does highlight how close this election is going to be, despite the rhetoric for the last several months about change, about the incompetence of the current government. The NDP still have some work to do,” he said.

While there are multiple parties registered with Elections Alberta, only the United Conservative Party and Alberta NDP realistically have a chance to form the next government.

The UCP is doing best with men, older Albertans and those living outside Calgary and Edmonton, the poll found.

The NDP is doing best with women, younger voters and Edmonton voters.

The two parties share the support of Albertans 35 to 54 years old: 47 per cent for the UCP versus 46 per cent for the NDP.

Ribeiro said he isn’t surprised to find Albertans are at odds.

“We’re a highly divided province at this point. We’re divided around geographical lines, ideological lines.”

Calgary the true Battle of Alberta contender

As has been the case in past elections, the NDP is maintaining support in the province’s capital city while the UCP is doing the same in rural Alberta.

The NDP is up by 11 points in Edmonton (52 per cent NDP vs. 41 per cent UCP), while the UCP dominates with a 27-point lead in the rest of Alberta (59 per cent UCP vs. 32 per cent NDP).

The race is very close in Calgary, with the leading parties in a statistical tie: 47 per cent NDP vs. 45 per cent UCP.

“It’s essentially a dead heat at this point,” Braid said.

“So it looks like a lot of attention is going to be paid to Calgary as we go through the next the next 28 days.”

The battle for seats in Calgary will be competitive, with both parties sharing roughly equal support.

“The only path to victory for the NDP comes through those narrow, narrow, close contests in the city of Calgary. It seems like all the close races that they have to win are in Calgary,” Braid said.

The poll also found when it comes to party loyalty, more voters have made up their minds to support the NDP no matter what, compared to the UCP.

“Sixty-one per cent of New Democrat voters say they’re absolutely certain they’re going to end up voting that way on election day. (It’s) a little less solid for the UCP at this point, with 52 per cent of their voters saying that they’re absolutely certain to support that party,” Braid said.

New election, similar faces: Leader tied for support

There are no new high-profile faces in this election: NDP Leader Rachel Notley has been premier of Alberta before (2015 to 2019) and Danielle Smith unsuccessfully ran for the job as leader of the Wildrose in 2012.

“This is not looking like it’s going to be an election about leadership. They are tied in terms of best premier numbers,” Braid said.

The poll found it’s a dead heat: currently, 35 per cent of Albertans choose Smith and an identical 35 per cent choose Notley.

Barry Morishita, leader of the Alberta Party, is a distant third choice with four per cent and an additional 26 per cent of Albertans are undecided as to which party leader would make the best premier.

“When we look at a range of leadership characteristics, they’re very close to each other on most characteristics,” Braid said of Smith and Notley.

“I think it’s a case where these are not new personalities to Albertans. They know these leaders very well. This is not an election where you’ve got a new leader who can come in and either wow people or turn them off.”

Ribeiro said he is surprised Notley is not doing better than a competitor who has not been given a mandate by Alberta voters before.

“At this point in time, you know, Danielle Smith has done enough potentially to soften some of those rougher edges in the last few weeks in terms of the public presentation she’s putting forward as the current premier and potentially future premier of the province of Alberta,” Ribeiro said.

Time for change?

The poll found Albertans are also open to change.

Half believe it’s time for another political party to take over and run the province. About one-third — 34 per cent — believe the UCP government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 16 per cent are undecided.

Political analyst Jason Ribeiro said the numbers shouldn’t come as a surprise, with the UCP having undergone a fair bit of change while in power.

“You’ve swapped out a leader and those leaders couldn’t be more contradictory in terms of their views of what the United Conservative Party stands for,” he said when comparing the views of former leader Jason Kenney and current leader Smith.

Ribeiro said it comes down to what kind of change Albertans want, adding each party is going to lean into different rhetoric.

“You have Smith and even frankly, Jason Kenney, still relying on change from the federal government as the main narrative that they use to justify the existence of the UCP and why this party was formed,” he said.

“Whereas Rachel Notley, the NDP, is very traditionally, ‘We need a new government and the government has had their time. We are that change.’”

“What kind of forward progress has the UCP brought? That’s going to be the discussion around kitchen tables for the next 30 days.”

Ipsos said the change numbers are very similar to the start of the 2019 campaign that saw the UCP defeat the incumbent NDP in a landslide, when it was 52 per cent time for change and 31 per cent deserve re-election. Braid said half of voters being open to change is not a particularly high number.

“We’ve seen other provincial elections and federal elections in Canada where that number can be over 60 per cent, but it is enough to shake things up if those who decide it’s the time for change also believe that Rachel Notley and the NDP is the right change to make,” Braid said.

“Sometimes we see in elections the desire for change — but people reject the change that’s on offer.

“That’s what a campaign is about, making it so that the NDP has a chance to make the case for change.”

 

The Global/Ipsos poll was conducted between April 26 and 30. For the survey, a sample of 1,200 Alberta eligible voters was interviewed: 800 online and 400 through a mix of cell and landline phone surveys. Ipsos said the data was weighted by age, gender, region and education to reflect the Alberta population, according to Census figures. The results are accurate to within ±3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all eligible voters been polled. Some questions were based only on the sample of 800 online respondents and are accurate to within ±3.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

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Trump is consistently inconsistent on abortion and reproductive rights

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CHICAGO (AP) — Donald Trump has had a tough time finding a consistent message to questions about abortion and reproductive rights.

The former president has constantly shifted his stances or offered vague, contradictory and at times nonsensical answers to questions on an issue that has become a major vulnerability for Republicans in this year’s election. Trump has been trying to win over voters, especially women, skeptical about his views, especially after he nominated three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn the nationwide right to abortion two years ago.

The latest example came this week when the Republican presidential nominee said some abortion laws are “too tough” and would be “redone.”

“It’s going to be redone,” he said during a Fox News town hall that aired Wednesday. “They’re going to, you’re going to, you end up with a vote of the people. They’re too tough, too tough. And those are going to be redone because already there’s a movement in those states.”

Trump did not specify if he meant he would take some kind of action if he wins in November, and he did not say which states or laws he was talking about. He did not elaborate on what he meant by “redone.”

He also seemed to be contradicting his own stand when referencing the strict abortion bans passed in Republican-controlled states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Trump recently said he would vote against a constitutional amendment on the Florida ballot that is aimed at overturning the state’s six-week abortion ban. That decision came after he had criticized the law as too harsh.

Trump has shifted between boasting about nominating the justices who helped strike down federal protections for abortion and trying to appear more neutral. It’s been an attempt to thread the divide between his base of anti-abortion supporters and the majority of Americans who support abortion rights.

About 6 in 10 Americans think their state should generally allow a person to obtain a legal abortion if they don’t want to be pregnant for any reason, according to a July poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Voters in seven states, including some conservative ones, have either protected abortion rights or defeated attempts to restrict them in statewide votes over the past two years.

Trump also has been repeating the narrative that he returned the question of abortion rights to states, even though voters do not have a direct say on that or any other issue in about half the states. This is particularly true for those living in the South, where Republican-controlled legislatures, many of which have been gerrymandered to give the GOP disproportionate power, have enacted some of the strictest abortion bans since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Currently, 13 states have banned abortion at all stages of pregnancy, while four more ban it after six weeks — before many women know they’re pregnant.

Meanwhile, anti-abortion groups and their Republican allies in state governments are using an array of strategies to counter proposed ballot initiatives in at least eight states this year.

Here’s a breakdown of Trump’s fluctuating stances on reproductive rights.

Flip-flopping on Florida

On Tuesday, Trump claimed some abortion laws are “too tough” and would be “redone.”

But in August, Trump said he would vote against a state ballot measure that is attempting to repeal the six-week abortion ban passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That came a day after he seemed to indicate he would vote in favor of the measure. Trump previously called Florida’s six-week ban a “terrible mistake” and too extreme. In an April Time magazine interview, Trump repeated that he “thought six weeks is too severe.”

Trump on vetoing a national ban

Trump’s latest flip-flopping has involved his views on a national abortion ban.

During the Oct. 1 vice presidential debate, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that he would veto a national abortion ban: “Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it.”

This came just weeks after Trump repeatedly declined to say during the presidential debate with Democrat Kamala Harris whether he would veto a national abortion ban if he were elected.

Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, said in an interview with NBC News before the presidential debate that Trump would veto a ban. In response to debate moderators prompting him about Vance’s statement, Trump said: “I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness. And I don’t mind if he has a certain view, but I don’t think he was speaking for me.”

‘Pro-choice’ to 15-week ban

Trump’s shifting abortion policy stances began when the former reality TV star and developer started flirting with running for office.

He once called himself “very pro-choice.” But before becoming president, Trump said he “would indeed support a ban,” according to his book “The America We Deserve,” which was published in 2000.

In his first year as president, he said he was “pro-life with exceptions” but also said “there has to be some form of punishment” for women seeking abortions — a position he quickly reversed.

At the 2018 annual March for Life, Trump voiced support for a federal ban on abortion on or after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

More recently, Trump suggested in March that he might support a national ban on abortions around 15 weeks before announcing that he instead would leave the matter to the states.

Views on abortion pills, prosecuting women

In the Time interview, Trump said it should be left up to the states to decide whether to prosecute women for abortions or to monitor women’s pregnancies.

“The states are going to make that decision,” Trump said. “The states are going to have to be comfortable or uncomfortable, not me.”

Democrats have seized on the comments he made in 2016, saying “there has to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions.

Trump also declined to comment on access to the abortion pill mifepristone, claiming that he has “pretty strong views” on the matter. He said he would make a statement on the issue, but it never came.

Trump responded similarly when asked about his views on the Comstock Act, a 19th century law that has been revived by anti-abortion groups seeking to block the mailing of mifepristone.

IVF and contraception

In May, Trump said during an interview with a Pittsburgh television station that he was open to supporting regulations on contraception and that his campaign would release a policy on the issue “very shortly.” He later said his comments were misinterpreted.

In the KDKA interview, Trump was asked, “Do you support any restrictions on a person’s right to contraception?”

“We’re looking at that and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly,” Trump responded.

Trump has not since released a policy statement on contraception.

Trump also has offered contradictory statements on in vitro fertilization.

During the Fox News town hall, which was taped Tuesday, Trump declared that he is “the father of IVF,” despite acknowledging during his answer that he needed an explanation of IVF in February after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos can be considered children under state law.

Trump said he instructed Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., to “explain IVF very quickly” to him in the aftermath of the ruling.

As concerns over access to fertility treatments rose, Trump pledged to promote IVF by requiring health insurance companies or the federal government to pay for it. Such a move would be at odds with the actions of much of his own party.

Even as the Republican Party has tried to create a national narrative that it is receptive to IVF, these messaging efforts have been undercut by GOP state lawmakers, Republican-dominated courts and anti-abortion leaders within the party’s ranks, as well as opposition to legislative attempts to protect IVF access.

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The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Saskatchewan Party’s Scott Moe, NDP’s Carla Beck react to debate |

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Saskatchewan‘s two main political party leaders faced off in the only televised debate in the lead up to the provincial election on Oct. 28. Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe and NDP Leader Carla Beck say voters got a chance to see their platforms. (Oct. 17, 2024)

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Saskatchewan political leaders back on campaign trail after election debate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s main political leaders are back on the campaign trail today after hammering each other in a televised debate.

Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to make an announcement in Moose Jaw.

Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck is to make stops in Regina, Saskatoon and Prince Albert.

During Wednesday night’s debate, Beck emphasized her plan to make life more affordable and said people deserve better than an out-of-touch Saskatchewan Party government.

Moe said his party wants to lower taxes and put money back into people’s pockets.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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