Alberta is scheduled to introduce its budget Tuesday — the last before a spring provincial election — with political observerswondering what the province will do with all its billions of extra petrodollars.
“Any budget that’s leading into an election is always one that contains quite a few goodies,” said University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe.
“Combine that with a government with significantly higher resource royalties than planned, and you have a lot of scope for big announcements.”
Finance Minister Travis Toews, in his four years in the post, has tabled budgets that began with multibillion-dollar deficits and recently spotlighted multibillion-dollar surpluses due to rebounding oil and gas revenues.
The province said in its mid-year forecast that it’s expected to finish the current fiscal year, which concludes at the end of March, with a $12.3-billion surplus on the strength of high oil prices and oilsands operations reaching the higher post-payout stage of production.
Tombe said if the benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil price stays robust at US$80 barrel in the coming years, the province could once again, by decade’s end, eradicate its $80-billion taxpayer-supported debt.
WTI is currently trading just under $80 a barrel.
“I suspect we’ll see less windfall (in the budget) because spending will almost surely grow,” said Tombe.
Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party government has already announced and begun implementing a $2.8 billion program of direct payments and tax cuts to help Albertans deal with inflation.
In recent days, Health Minister Jason Copping has promised $158 million in new spending to recruit health staff and $243 million to expand and improve primary care.
Smith said funding for mental health and addiction is to rise from $275 million, up from $87 million in 2019.
Toews also promised more money to fund growing student enrolment from kindergarten to Grade 12. And Advanced Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides said there will be a two per cent cap on tuition starting in the 2024-25 school year.
Tombe said the key question to ask is what does Alberta do as it reaches yet another fork in the road on how it saves its bounty, given that past boom and bust cycles have seen the province spend heavily in good times then be forced to run staggeringly high deficits in bad times?
Economists, business groups and think tanks have suggested multiple options: recreate a buffer fund, put the money into the nest Heritage Savings Trust Fund, pay down the debt or use it to cover off more tax cuts to make Alberta more inviting to investors, potential newcomers and businesses.
Tombe, who favours debt paydown given current high interest rates, said there should be a plan, whatever the route taken.
“The last time we saw a detailed forward-looking plan for dealing with resource revenues was 2015 under (former premier) Jim Prentice,” he said.
“It will be interesting how detailed (this surplus plan) is,” said Tombe.
“It’s one thing to hand wave about using (surpluses) wisely. It’s another to actually have concrete, formula-driven approaches to handling resource revenues.”
Voters go to the polls May 29, and recent surveys suggest Smith’s UCP is in a tight race with Rachel Notley’s Opposition NDP.
Political scientist Lori Williams said she expects short-term inflation aid in the budget won’t be as important, because voters want to know which party can be trusted to look after families in the long-term while addressing core concerns over health care.
“Since the money is going to be there no matter who wins the next election, it may come down to a contest over vision and leadership,” said Williams, with Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“Money being spent (in the budget) doesn’t necessarily move the needle one way or the other.”
Williams noted the affordability programs and holidays on provincial tax at the gas pumps is set to end in the short term.
“I think a lot of people will be wondering what happens at the end of May?” she said.
“We can talk about diversification of the economy, we can talk about how well the economy is doing, but the reality is people are still struggling with inflation. The prices at the grocery store are shocking.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 26, 2023.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
