From June 25 and 28, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 Albertans aged 18 and over exploring public opinion about provincial politics following Naheed Nenshi’s win as the next leader of the Alberta NDP on June 22.
In this report, we share results of our core political opinion questions which we have tracked over time, delve into public impressions of the provincial government under Danielle Smith’s leadership, examine the key issues currently impacting Albertans, and compare public sentiment of Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi.
UCP Holds a 14-point lead over the Alberta NDP
Currently, the UCP have a larger pool of accessible voters (62%) than the the Alberta NDP (48%), highlighting the UCP’s broad appeal to Albertans across the province. This gives the UCP more paths to victory and remains one of its strongest advantages for the Alberta NDP.
If a provincial election were held today, 54% of committed Alberta adults would vote UCP, while 40% would vote for the Alberta NDP, and 6% would choose another party.
Compared to our last survey in March 2024, the UCP’s support is down 1, while the NDP’s support remains unchanged. Since the 2023 provincial election, the NDP has seen a decline of 4-points, whereas the UCP has experienced a 1-point increase. Overall, Nenshi’s victory has not had a noticeable impact on voting intentions in the province.
Regionally, the UCP leads by 4 in Calgary (a smaller margin than we measured in March at 8-points) while the two parties are statistically tied in Edmonton. Outside the two largest cities, the UCP leads by 34-points. Since Nenshi’s victory, the NDP is slightly more popular in Calgary but it’s lead in Edmonton has been reduced from 11-points to 2-points over the UCP.
The UCP continues to hold a wide lead among men (24-points, up from 22 in March), while their lead among women has narrowed to 3 points (down from 7 in March). The UCP maintains a commanding 23-point lead among Albertans aged 60+, whereas the Alberta NDP now has a 5-point lead among Albertans aged 18-29 an improvement since March when we found the UCP ahead by 4.
When asked about their preferred premier, 56% of Albertans favour Danielle Smith, while 44% prefer Naheed Nenshi. Residents in Calgary and Edmonton are evenly split between the two while those outside the big cities prefer Smith to Nenshi by a 2 to 1 margin.
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Impressions of Danielle Smith’s Government
Since March, impressions of the provincial government led by Danielle Smith have improved notably. Today, 42% approve of the provincial government’s job performance (up 10 since March) while 39% disapprove. However, those who strongly disapprove (24%) is more than double those who strongly approve (11%).
In Calgary, the Smith government’s net approval rating is +3, up from -13 in March. In Edmonton, it stands at -12, an improvement from -20 in March. In the rest of the province, the approval rating has increased to +15 from +11 in March. These figures indicate that approval of Smith’s government has risen across the province since March of this year, although Edmonton still presents a net negative approval rating.
Mood of the Province + Top Issues Facing Alberta Today
Today, 49% of Albertan’s believe that the province is off on the wrong track (largely unchanged from March) while 35% believe the province is headed in the right direction. For comparison, nationally, 25% of Canadians think the province is headed in the right direction.
It is interesting that more Albertans approve of the provincial government’s performance than think the province is headed in the right direction. In fact, 17% of those who think the province is off on the wrong track approve of the provincial government. It is likely these people blame something else (think federal government or global events) for the direction of the province rather than the provincial government.
The cost of living is by far the most important issue for Albertans today. 3 in 4 rate it as one of their top 3 issues. Healthcare, housing, taxes, and the economy round out the top 5.
Interestingly, despite Calgary’s state of emergency related to a major watermain break, only 8% of Albertans rate “infrastructure in Alberta’s cities” as a top issue and Calgarians are no more likely to rate it as a top issue than those in other parts of the province.
Albertans were asked which party leader – Danielle Smith or Naheed Nenshi – they trust most to deal with each issue.
Danielle Smith has a wide lead on who Albertans trust most to defend Alberta against the federal government (+33), protecting the rights of gun owners (+34), managing the economy (+17), keeping taxes low (+11), business attraction (+18), the cost of living (+7), and infrastructure (+7).
Naheed Nenshi leads on climate change (+11), protecting the environment (+11), wealth inequality (+8), healthcare (+10) and education (+7).
Smith and Nenshi are tied on education (38% each).
Impressions of Party Leaders
To assess how well people know Naheed Nenshi as he takes over the leadership of the Alberta NDP from Rachel Notley, we asked people to rate their knowledge of both Smith and Nenshi.
Not surprisingly, Danielle Smith is better known than Naheed Nenshi. When we combine those who say they know the leaders pretty or very well, Smith’s familiarity score is 73% while Nenshi’s is 53%. Despite being Calgary’s Mayor for more than decade, many Albertans don’t know much about Nenshi and that’s very clear when we look at the region breakouts.
In Calgary, 73% say they know Nenshi at least pretty well compared with only 44% in the rest of the province.
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Both political party leaders have fairly good personal images (at least compared to political leaders federally or in other provinces. Danielle Smith has a net favourable impression of +2 with 41% having a positive view of her and 39% having a negative view.
In comparison, Naheed Nenshi’s net favourable is even with 32% having a positive view and 32% having a negative one.
Premier Smith’s net favourability is highest in communities outside Calgary and Edmonton (+11), among those aged 45-59 (+20), and those aged 60 and older (+12). Conversely, Naheed Nenshi’s net favourability is greatest in Calgary (+21) and Edmonton (+5), as well as among those aged 18-29 (+7). Premier Smith garners the highest favourability among older residents and rural communities outside Calgary and Edmonton, while Naheed Nenshi’s strongest support comes from younger adults and urban areas like Calgary and Edmonton.
Respondents were also asked to rate Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi on various leadership qualities. Smith was more likely to be seen as a strong leader (53%) and someone who stands up for Albertans (50%) compared to Nenshi.
In contrast, Nenshi was more likely to be viewed as intelligent (57%) and kind and compassionate (48%) compared to Smith. Additionally, Nenshi was perceived as someone motivated by genuine concern for their community (42%) and understanding of the challenges faced by Albertans (40%). These findings indicate that Albertans perceive Danielle Smith as a strong leader, while they see Nenshi as empathetic and in touch with the personal aspects of politics.
However, when we focus on only those who know each leader at least “pretty well”, we find Nenshi holding a considerable advantage over Smith. This suggests that as people get to know Nenshi better across the province, he has the potential to shift impressions of the party and maybe increase the number of Albertans willing to consider voting NDP.
In other words, there’s a chance that the more Albertans get to know Nenshi, the more they will like him.
NDP Divorce? Should the AB NDP split from the federal party?
After being elected as the new leader of the Alberta NDP, Naheed Nenshi indicated his intention to ask party members about splitting from the federal party, a key issue in his campaign.
When asked, 49% of Albertans support the Alberta NDP severing ties with the federal party, while 21% oppose it. This decision is strongly supported by accessible Alberta NDP voters (51%), Alberta NDP supporters (49%), and even federal NDP supporters (43%). This shows a significant portion of Albertans favor more autonomy for the provincial party.
The Upshot
Naheed Nenshi’s landslide victory for the Alberta NDP leadership has not had a major impact on public opinion in Alberta but it has shifted two aspects of political opinion: the Alberta NDP is more competitive in Calgary but has less of a dominant lead in Edmonton.
Nenshi takes over the Alberta NDP at a time when Danielle Smith and her government are relatively popular (at least compared to other incumbent governments in Canada). More people have a positive view of Premier Smith than a negative one. The UCP has a big advantage on several of the top issues including the cost of living, the economy, and taxes and is tied with the NDP on housing. Healthcare remains a vulnerability for the UCP and an opportunity for Nenshi and the NDP.
Perhaps more concerning for Nenshi is the substantially larger pool of accessible voters available to the UCP than the NDP. The UCP’s advantage outside of two largest cities remains a big hurdle for a future NDP government and changing the public’s perception of the NDP is going to be an important step in fixing that. There’s broad support for splitting the provincial NDP from the federal party, so that could be a first step in that process.
But this poll also confirms that Nenshi could be threat to the UCP. Those who know Nenshi like him which is probably why the UCP has already started trying to define him to the close to half of Albertans who don’t know the former Calgary mayor all that well.
It’s still too early to determine Naheed Nenshi’s influence on Albertan politics, but early signs indicate he holds promise as a worthy challenger to Danielle Smith and the UCP. How effectively he connects on key issues for Albertans, is able to shift perceptions about the party itself, and increases his visibility across the province will be pivotal in shaping voter opinions moving forward.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Canadian adults from June 25 to 28, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.31%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
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EDMONTON – Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says her government’s $8.6-billion plan to fast-track building new schools will include a pilot project to incentivize private ones.
Smith said the ultimate goal is to create thousands of new spaces for an exploding number of new students at a reduced cost to taxpayers.
“We want to put all of the different school options on the same level playing field,” Smith told a news conference in Calgary Wednesday.
Smith did not offer details about how much private school construction costs might be incentivized, but said she wants to see what independent schools might pitch.
“We’re putting it out there as a pilot to see if there is any interest in partnering on the same basis that we’ll be building the other schools with the different (public) school boards,” she said.
Smith made the announcement a day after she announced the multibillion-dollar school build to address soaring numbers of new students.
By quadrupling the current school construction budget to $8.6 billion, the province aims to offer up 30 new schools each year, adding 50,000 new student spaces within three years.
The government also wants to build or expand five charter school buildings per year, starting in next year’s budget, adding 12,500 spaces within four years.
Currently, non-profit independent schools can get some grants worth about 70 per cent of what students in public schools receive per student from the province.
However, those grants don’t cover major construction costs.
John Jagersma, executive director of the Association of Independent Schools and Colleges of Alberta, said he’s interested in having conversations with the government about incentives.
He said the province has never directly funded major capital costs for their facilities before, and said he doesn’t think the association has ever asked for full capital funding.
He said community or religious groups traditionally cover those costs, but they can help take the pressure off the public or separate systems.
“We think we can do our part,” Jagersma said.
Dennis MacNeil, head of the Public School Boards Association of Alberta, said they welcome the new funding, but said money for private school builds would set a precedent that could ultimately hurt the public system.
“We believe that the first school in any community should be a public school, because only public schools accept all kids that come through their doors and provide programming for them,” he said.
Jason Schilling, president of the Alberta Teachers’ Association, said if public dollars are going to be spent on building private schools, then students in the public system should be able to equitably access those schools.
“No other province spends as much money on private schools as Alberta does, and it’s at the detriment of public schools, where over 90 per cent of students go to school,” he said.
Schilling also said the province needs about 5,000 teachers now, but the government announcement didn’t offer a plan to train and hire thousands more over the next few years.
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi on Tuesday praised the $8.6 billion as a “generational investment” in education, but said private schools have different mandates and the result could be schools not being built where they are needed most.
“Using that money to build public schools is more efficient, it’s smarter, it’s faster, and it will serve students better,” Nenshi said.
Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides’ office declined to answer specific questions about the pilot project Wednesday, saying it’s still under development.
“Options and considerations for making capital more affordable for independent schools are being explored,” a spokesperson said. “Further information on this program will be forthcoming in the near future.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
OTTAWA – Health Minister Mark Holland urged a committee of senators Wednesday not to tweak the pharmacare bill he carefully negotiated with the NDP earlier this year.
The bill would underpin a potential national, single-payer pharmacare program and allow the health minister to negotiate with provinces and territories to cover some diabetes and contraceptive medications.
It was the result of weeks of political negotiations with the New Democrats, who early this year threatened to pull out of their supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals unless they could agree on the wording.
“Academics and experts have suggested amendments to this bill to most of us here, I think,” Independent Senator Rosemary Moodie told Holland at a meeting of the Senate’s social affairs committee.
Holland appeared before the committee as it considers the bill. He said he respects the role of the Senate, but that the pharmacare legislation is, in his view, “a little bit different.”
“It was balanced on a pinhead,” he told the committee.
“This is by far — and I’ve been involved in a lot of complex things — the most difficult bit of business I’ve ever been in. Every syllable, every word in this bill was debated and argued over.”
Holland also asked the senators to move quickly to pass the legislation, to avoid lending credence to Conservative critiques that the program is a fantasy.
When asked about the Liberals’ proposed pharmacare program for diabetes and birth control, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has often responded that the program isn’t real. Once the legislation is passed, the minister must negotiate with every provincial government to actually administer the program, which could take many months.
“If we spend a long time wordsmithing and trying to make the legislation perfect, then the criticism that it’s not real starts to feel real for people, because they don’t actually get drugs, they don’t get an improvement in their life,” Holland told the committee.
He told the committee that one of the reasons he signed a preliminary deal with his counterpart in British Columbia was to help answer some of the Senate’s questions about how the program would work in practice.
The memorandum of understanding between Ottawa and B.C. lays out how to province will use funds from the pharmacare bill to expand on its existing public coverage of contraceptives to include hormone replacement therapy to treat menopausal symptoms.
The agreement isn’t binding, and Holland would still need to formalize talks with the province when and if the Senate passes the bill based on any changes the senators decide to make.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia’s NDP are accusing the government of prioritizing landlords over residents who need an affordable place to live, as the opposition party tables a bill aimed at addressing the housing crisis.
NDP Leader Claudia Chender took aim at the Progressive Conservatives Wednesday ahead of introducing two new housing bills, saying the government “seems to be more focused on helping wealthy developers than everyday families.”
The Minister of Service Nova Scotia has said the government’s own housing legislation will “balance” the needs of tenants and landlords by extending the five per cent cap on rent until the end of 2027. But critics have called the cap extension useless because it allows landlords to raise rents past five per cent on fixed-term leases as long as property owners sign with a new renter.
Chender said the rules around fixed-term leases give landlords the “financial incentive to evict,” resulting in more people pushed into homelessness. She also criticized the part of the government bill that will permit landlords to issue eviction notices after three days of unpaid rent instead of 15.
The Tories’ housing bill, she said, represents a “shocking admission from this government that they are more concerned with conversations around landlord profits … than they are about Nova Scotians who are trying to find a home they can afford.”
The premier’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Also included in the government’s new housing legislation are clearer conditions for landlords to end a tenancy, such as criminal behaviour, disturbing fellow tenants, repeated late rental payments and extraordinary damage to a unit. It will also prohibit tenants from subletting units for more than they are paying.
The first NDP bill tabled Wednesday would create a “homelessness task force” to gather data to try to prevent homelessness, and the second would set limits on evictions during the winter and for seniors who meet income eligibility requirements for social housing and have lived in the same home for more than 10 years.
The NDP has previously tabled legislation that would create a $500 tax credit for renters and tie rent control to housing units instead of the individual.
Earlier this week landlords defended the use of the contentious fixed-term leases, saying they need to have the option to raise rent higher than five per cent to maintain their properties and recoup costs. Landlord Yarviv Gadish, who manages three properties in the Halifax area, called the use of fixed-term leases “absolutely essential” in order to keep his apartments presentable and to get a return on his investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
