Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 15-points. Naheed Nenshi is the most well-known and well-liked NDP. | Canada News Media
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Alberta Politics: UCP ahead of NDP by 15-points. Naheed Nenshi is the most well-known and well-liked NDP.

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From March 14 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 Alberta adults exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

This is the first time we have fielded one of our public surveys in Alberta since Rachel Notley announced she was stepping down as NDP leader, triggering a leadership election. This survey was also completed prior to the announcement on Tuesday morning by NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi that she is dropping out of the NDP leadership race and endorsing Naheed Nenshi.

In this report, we share results of the core political opinion questions, a bit of a deep-dive on impressions of the provincial government led by Danielle Smith, and a look at how Albertans feel about the NDP leadership candidates and how they perform in hypothetical match-ups with Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party.

The UCP holds a 15-point lead over the Alberta NDP

If a provincial election were held today, 55% of committed Alberta adults would vote UCP while 40% would vote Alberta NDP. 2% would vote for the Alberta Party while 2% would vote for another party. Since our last survey in October 2023, the UCP is down 1 while the NDP is unchanged.

Since the 2023 provincial election, the NDP is down 4 while the UCP is up 2.

Regionally, the UCP is ahead by 8 in Calgary (52% to 44%) and 38 in other communities outside Calgary and Edmonton-proper. In Edmonton, the Alberta NDP is ahead by 11 (53% to 42%).

The UCP lead by 22 among men, 7 among women and holds a commanding 39-point lead among Albertans aged 60+. Among those under 45 the two parties are basically tied.

When it comes to how Albertans feel about the performance of the Danielle Smith government, 32% approve while 38% disapprove. In Calgary, the Smith government’s net approval is -13, in Edmonton it is -20, and in the rest of the province it is +11.

Impressions of the two main party leaders are fairly similar. 38% of Albertans have a positive impression of Premier Smith while 40% have a negative impression for a net score of -1. NDP Leader Rachel Notley has a net score of -12, with 31% viewing her positively and 43% negatively.

How do Albertans feel about the provincial government?

Respondents were asked to choose phrases or words that describe the Smith government. We asked the same question to our national sample about the Trudeau government and to a large sample in Ontario about the provincial government led by Danielle Smith. We will share results of those results in the coming days.

In Alberta, views of the Smith government are mixed but generally more positive than how people feel about the Ford government in Ontario or the Trudeau government federally.

More than half of Albertans feel the Smith government is “clear on what it wants Alberta to be” rather than “unclear on what it wants Alberta to be”. Half thinks the government is “focused” while 33% think it is “distracted”. More feel it is “effective” than “ineffective” and about equal numbers feels the government is “focused on the right priorities” rather than “focused on the wrong priorities”.

34% describe the government as “unifying” while 42% think it is “divisive” and 43% describes it as “proactive”, more than feel it is “reactive”.

Overall, for a government that has taken on some controversial issues, these results suggest it is seen positively and in the right frame with a sizeable portion of the population.

But we also asked respondents whether they feel the provincial government is sufficiently focused on or addressing several key issues. Areas where most Albertans want to see the government more focused include “managing the cost of living” (60%) and “improving the healthcare system” (58). Another 52% think it could be more focused on “keeping your taxes as low as possible”.

In contrast, the provincial government is more likely to be seen as sufficiently focused on “standing up for Alberta” (49%) and “growing the Alberta economy” (37%).

One area where there’s more neutral views is on climate change. 38% of Albertans feel the provincial government could be more focused on it, 28% think it is moderately or highly focused on it, while 34% are either neutral or unsure about it.

These results suggest that so far, the Smith government has done a pretty good job managing expectations and signalling to its coalition that it’s sufficiently handling the top issues people report are important to them.

The Alberta NDP Leadership Race

In this survey, we also asked several questions regarding the Alberta NDP leadership election.

We started by assessing the impressions people have of the six candidates running to be Alberta NDP leader. A few things stand out:

1 Naheed Nenshi is by far the most well known of the candidates. 74% of Albertans had an impression of Mr. Nenshi, significantly higher than Sarah Hoffman (49%), Kathleen Ganley (60%), Rakhi Pancholi (39%), Hil McGowan (39%), or Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (37%).

2. Naheed Nenshi is also the only candidate who has a clear net positive impression. 31% of Albertans have a positive view of him compared with 23% who have a negative view for a net score of +8. Kathleen Ganley is the only other candidate with a net positive, but just barely at +1.

3. Nenshi’s net scores are +14 in Calgary, +9 in Edmonton, and -1 in the rest of the province. Sarah Hoffman’s net scores are +2 in Edmonton, -6 in Calgary, and -3 in the rest of the province. Note, only 42% of Albertans outside the two largest cities have an impression of Ms. Hoffman.

And so apart from Mr. Nenshi, none of the other leadership candidates are household names (they rarely are in leadership races) and Mr. Nenshi has a substantial advantage when it comes to name recognition and favourability.

Now, we also tested five of the candidate in hypothetical matchups with Danielle Smith and the UCP.

From that exercise we learned a few things:

None of the leadership candidates perform as well as Rachel Notley as part of our main ballot question although Naheed Nenshi performs better than anyone else. This is likely more about his name recognition than any ability to attract Albertans who wouldn’t otherwise vote NDP – except in Calgary.

When we look at the regional dynamics, a few things stand out. In Edmonton, no one performs as well as Rachel Notley currently does. The main ballot question has the NDP ahead by 11. In all of the hypotheticals, that gap drops considerable.

In Calgary, Nenshi performs best, turning an 8 point UCP lead into a statistical tie. None of the other candidates perform better than Rachel Notley currently in Calgary.

Outside of Edmonton and Calgary, Nenshi performance as well as Notley but with all other possible NDP leaders the UCP lead grows.

Finally, another way to look at the potential impact of each NDP leadership candidate to shake up vote intentions to see how much of NDP support they retain and how much support they attract from other parties.

Naheed Nenshi does the best at attracting new supporters and retaining more of the current NDP support base. Sarah Hoffman retains more of the NDP base than other candidates, except for Nenshi, but attracts slightly less UCP and other party supporters than Nenshi. All the other candidates hold 2 in 3 current NDP supporters or less and attract few UCP candidates.

But the big takeaway is how little UCP support is attracted to any of the candidates at the moment demonstrating the level of polarization in Alberta at the moment.

It is also worth noting that given Nenshi name recognition advantage, this comparison isn’t a perfect measure of potential opportunity or risk for the other candidates but it does clearly show how challenging it will be for any of these candidates, if elected leader, to grow the NDP support base. Nenshi likely has the best chance and right now is the lower risk at losing existing NDP support.

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “In reflecting on the findings of our recent survey, it’s clear that Premier Danielle Smith’s position in Alberta politics remains robust ten months into her mandate.

Retaining the support garnered in the last election, her government appears not only to have maintained its winning coalition but also enjoys a reasonably favourable approval rating amidst challenging economic conditions. This standing is especially notable when compared to incumbents in other provinces.

The Smith government is perceived as having a distinct mission and vision, demonstrating effectiveness in its undertakings, and maintaining focus on what many Albertans deem the right priorities, despite criticisms around certain initiatives like the Alberta Pension Plan and on-going disputes with Ottawa – which Albertans recognize as an area the government has focused a lot on.

The Alberta NDP leadership race introduces an intriguing dynamic, particularly with Naheed Nenshi’s advantage on name recognition and favourability among the candidates. His recent endorsement by former leadership candidate and NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi, coupled with claims of a significant increase in party membership, underscores his potential to translate personal brand into political capital. This development is crucial in leadership contests, where the ability to mobilize new members can decisively tilt the scales. Nenshi’s profile offers the Alberta NDP a formidable asset in its leadership transition, highlighting the strategic importance of both visibility and organizational support in such contests.

However, the broader challenge for the Alberta NDP, and indeed for any leader emerging from its ongoing leadership race, lies in positioning the party as a credible and appealing alternative to the United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith. Despite a leadership race that has garnered national attention, the ultimate electoral test will be in persuading UCP supporters to change their preferences. More akin to convincing cola drinkers to stop drinking cola than switching from Pepsi to Coke.

Premier Smith’s brand, characterized by having a clear vision and a focus on priority issues for Albertans, sets a high bar. The evolving political landscape in Alberta, shaped by both individual leadership qualities and collective party dynamics, continues to be a compelling study in contrasts and possibilities.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,000 Alberta adults from March 16 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

 

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Harris, Beyoncé team up for a Texas rally on abortion rights and hope battleground states hear them

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HOUSTON (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris will team up with Beyoncé on Friday for a rally in solidly Republican Texas aimed at highlighting the medical fallout from the state’s strict abortion ban and putting the blame squarely on Donald Trump.

It’s a message intended to register far beyond Texas in the political battleground states, where Harris is hoping that the aftereffects from the fall of Roe v. Wade will spur voters to turn out to support her quest for the presidency.

Harris will also be joined at the rally by women who have nearly died from sepsis and other pregnancy complications because they were unable to get proper medical care, including women who never intended to end their pregnancies.

Some of them have already been out campaigning for Harris and others have told their harrowing tales in campaign ads that seek to show how the issue has ballooned into something far bigger than the right to end an unwanted pregnancy.

Since abortion was restricted in Texas, the state’s infant death rate has increased, more babies have died of birth defects and maternal mortality has risen.

With the presidential election in a dead heat, the Democratic nominee is banking on abortion rights as a major driver for voters — including for Republican women, particularly since Trump appointed three of the Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn the constitutional right. He has been inconsistent about how he would approach the issue if voters return him to the White House.

Harris’ campaign has taken on Beyonce’s 2016 track “Freedom” as its anthem, and the message dovetails with the vice president’s emphasis on reproductive freedom. The singer’s planned appearance Friday adds a high level of star power to Harris’ visit to the state. She will be the latest celebrity to appear with or on behalf of Harris, including Lizzo, James Taylor, Spike Lee, Tyler Perry, Samuel L. Jackson, Bruce Springsteen and Eminem. While in Texas, Harris also will tape a podcast with host Brené Brown.

Trump is also headed to Texas Friday where he’ll talk immigration, and tape a podcast with host Joe Rogan.

There is some evidence to suggest that abortion rights may drive women to the polls as it did during the 2022 midterm elections. Voters in seven states, including some conservative ones, have either protected abortion rights or defeated attempts to restrict them in statewide votes over the past two years.

“Living in Texas, it feels incredibly important to protect women’s health and safety,” said Colette Clark, an Austin voter. She said voting for Harris is the best way to prevent further abortion restrictions from happening across the country.

Another Austin resident, Daniel Kardish, didn’t know anyone who has been personally affected by the restrictions, but nonetheless views it as a key issue this election.

“I feel strongly about women having bodily autonomy,” he said.

Harris said this week she thought the issue was compelling enough to motivate even Republican women, adding, “for so many of us, our daughter is going to have fewer rights than their grandmother.”

“When the issue of the freedom of a woman to make decisions about her own body is on the ballot, the American people vote for freedom regardless of the party with which they’re registered to vote,” Harris said.

Harris isn’t likely to win Texas, but that isn’t the point of her presence Friday.

“Of all the states in the nation, Texas has been ground zero for harrowing stories of women, including women who have been denied care, who had to leave the state, mothers who have had to leave the state,” said Skye Perryman, president of Democracy Forward, a legal group behind many lawsuits challenging abortion restrictions. “It’s one of the major places where this reality has been so, so devastatingly felt.”

Democrats warn that a winnowing of rights and freedoms will only continue if Trump is elected. Republican lawmakers in states across the U.S. have been rejecting Democrats’ efforts to protect or expand access to birth control, for example.

Democrats also hope Harris’ visit will give a boost to Rep. Colin Allred, who is making a longshot bid to unseat Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred will appear at the rally with Harris.

When Roe was first overturned, Democrats initially focused on the new limitations on access to abortion to end unwanted pregnancies. But the same medical procedures used for abortions are used to treat miscarriages.

And increasingly, in 14 states with strict abortion bans, women cannot get medical care until their condition has become life-threatening. In some states, doctors can face criminal charges if they provide medical care.

About 6 in 10 Americans think their state should generally allow a person to obtain a legal abortion if they don’t want to be pregnant for any reason, according to a July poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Trump has been inconsistent in his message to voters on abortion and reproductive rights. He has repeatedly shifted his stance and offered vague, contradictory and at times nonsensical answers to questions on an issue that has become a major vulnerability for Republicans in this year’s election.

Texas encapsulates the post-Roe landscape. Its strict abortion ban prohibits physicians from performing abortions once cardiac activity is detected, which can happen as early as six weeks or before.

As a result, women, including those who didn’t intend to end a pregnancy, are increasingly suffering worse medical care. That’s in part because doctors cannot intervene unless a woman is facing a life-threatening condition, or to prevent “substantial impairment of major bodily function.”

The state also has become a battleground for litigation. The U.S. Supreme Court weighed in on the side of the state’s ban just two weeks ago.

Complaints of pregnant women in medical distress being turned away from emergency rooms in Texas and elsewhere have spiked as hospitals grapple with whether standard care could violate strict state laws against abortion.

Several Texas women have lodged complaints against hospitals for not terminating their failing and dangerous pregnancies because of the state’s ban. In some cases, women lost reproductive organs.

Of late, Republicans have increasingly tried to place the blame on doctors, alleging that physicians are intentionally denying services in an effort to undercut the bans and make a political point.

Perryman said that was gaslighting.

“Doctors are being placed in a position where they are having to face the prospect of criminal liability, of personal liability, threat to their medical license and their ability to care for people — they’re faced with an untenable position,” she said.

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Long reported from Washington and Lathan from Austin, Texas.

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Nova Scotia premier appoints new finance minister after cabinet resignation

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston has announced a cabinet shuffle today, appointing Tim Halman as finance minister and deputy premier.

Halman will retain his portfolio as environment minister as he replaces Allan MacMaster who resigned as finance minister and deputy premier on Thursday.

In a statement on Facebook, MacMaster says he wants to seek the federal Conservative nomination in the riding of Cape Breton—Canso—Antigonish.

MacMaster says he will stay on as the member of the provincial legislature for Inverness, but will resign his seat if he wins the federal nomination.

In a short statement, the premier’s office says Halman’s swearing-in ceremony took place on Thursday.

The cabinet change comes as speculation mounts about a snap provincial election call as early as this weekend.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Beyoncé, whose ‘Freedom’ is Harris’ campaign anthem, is expected at Democrat’s Texas rally on Friday

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PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Beyoncé is expected to appear Friday in her hometown of Houston at a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Harris’ presidential campaign has taken on Beyonce’s 2016 track “Freedom” as its anthem, and the singer’s planned appearance brings a high-level of star power to what has become a key theme of the Democratic nominee’s bid: freedom.

Harris will head to the reliably Republican state just 10 days before Election Day in an effort to refocus her campaign against former President Donald Trump on reproductive care, which Democrats see as a make-or-break issue this year.

The three people were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity. The Harris campaign did not immediately comment.

Beyoncé‘s appearance was expected to draw even more attention to the event — and to Harris’ closing message.

Harris’ Houston trip is set to feature women who have been affected by Texas’ restrictive abortion laws, which took effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. She has campaigned in other states with restrictive abortion laws, including Georgia, among the seven most closely contested states.

Harris has centered her campaign around the idea that Trump is a threat to American freedoms, from reproductive and LGBTQ rights to the freedom to be safe from gun violence.

Beyonce gave Harris permission early in her campaign to use “Freedom,” a soulful track from her 2016 landmark album “Lemonade,” in her debut ad. Harris has used its thumping chorus as a walk-out song at rallies ever since.

Beyoncé’s alignment with Harris isn’t the first time that the Grammy winner has aligned with a Democratic politician. Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle, danced as Beyoncé performed at a presidential inaugural ball in 2009.

In 2013, she sang the national anthem at Obama’s second inauguration. Three years later, she and her husband Jay-Z performed at a pre-election concert for Democrat Hillary Clinton in Cleveland.

“Look how far we’ve come from having no voice to being on the brink of history — again,” Beyoncé said at the time. “But we have to vote.”

A January poll by Ipsos for the anti-polarization nonprofit With Honor found that 64% of Democrats had a favorable view of Beyonce compared with just 32% of Republicans. Overall, Americans were more likely to have a favorable opinion than an unfavorable one, 48% to 33%.

Speculation over whether the superstar would appear at this summer’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago reached a fever pitch on the gathering’s final night, with online rumors swirling after celebrity news site TMZ posted a story that said: “Beyoncé is in Chicago, and getting ready to pop out for Kamala Harris on the final night of the Democratic convention.” The site attributed it to “multiple sources in the know,” none of them named.

About an hour after Harris ended her speech, TMZ updated its story to say, “To quote the great Beyoncé: We gotta lay our cards down, down, down … we got this one wrong.” In the end, Harris took the stage to star’s song, but that was its only appearance.

Last year, Harris and her husband, Doug Emhoff, attended Beyoncé’s Renaissance World Tour in Maryland after getting tickets from Beyonce herself. “Thanks for a fun date night, @Beyonce,” Harris wrote on Instagram.

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Long and Kinnard reported from Washington. Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed to this report. Kinnard can be reached at

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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