The leadership race for the federal Conservatives, which ends on Sunday, comes at a time when Albertans are facing challenges on a number of fronts — from a stagnant economy and depressed oil prices to feelings of western anger and alienation.
They expressed their frustrations in last October’s federal election by completely shutting out the governing Liberals, and since that time, the Wexit movement has only grown as a way to express discontent with the federal government.
Despite overwhelming support for the Conservatives in the Prairie provinces, none of the leadership candidates hoping to replace Andrew Scheer are from Western Canada — unlike Stephen Harper, who represented a Calgary riding and served as prime minister from 2006 to 2015.
Peter MacKay, a former Tory cabinet minister under Harper, is from Nova Scotia, while Erin O’Toole is an MP from the Ontario riding of Durham, Derek Sloan represents the riding of Hastings-Lennox and Addington, also in Ontario, and Leslyn Lewis is from Toronto.
As if a candidate in the Conservative leadership race itself, the central Alberta town of Drayton Valley has “Pulling Together” as an official slogan, written on a clock tower overlooking one of its main squares — seemingly speaking to the theme of unity that has often come up in the party’s leadership race.
But spend a few hours in this community, about 130 kilometres southwest of Edmonton, and you’re just as likely to meet people who see themselves drifting further apart from both the country and the federal party this province has long supported.
“They’re not helping out the people a whole lot here,” said Chris Burch, a resident of the oil town for 30 years who lost his oil-and-gas job five years ago and now relies solely on income from an a bed and breakfast.
“It just seems like nobody has a voice anymore,” he said, expressing frustration about both the federal government as well as provincial and federal conservative parties.
Burch said he has previously been a stalwart supporter of conservative parties at both the provincial and federal levels. His vote went that way last year as well, in both the Alberta and federal elections.
Now, though, Burch said he is eyeing the Wexit movement, which supports the separation of the four most western provinces from Canada — fuelled by economic decline and feelings of alienation from Ottawa.
“Look at this town, I mean, half the town is empty buildings,” he said.
The 2016 Statistics Canada census found that 8.8 per cent of Drayton Valley residents were unemployed, above the national average of seven per cent. The Alberta government says almost 300 people left the town between 2015 and last year, reducing the population to just under 7,400.
Jared Wiens said he is willing to give the country another chance, but just barely.
“Peter MacKay is the guy I’m supporting,” he said.
“We need a lot of change, but honestly, if Peter MacKay is not the man to do it, then I think western separation is our only option.”
Another town resident, Jo Stuckenberg, has a more cautious view of MacKay.
“I don’t think that his heart is in the West,” she said, adding she nevertheless thinks he has the appeal to win over most Canadian Conservatives.
“Perhaps the western premiers can get to work on him and get him to see our point of view,” she said.
WATCH | A veteran Alberta conservative weighs in on leadership race:
Quelling western anger
Wexit remains a relatively small movement in Alberta. Recent polling indicates a fifth of the population calls separation “a good idea.”
The Wexit Canada party gained official party status earlier this year, and then, in June, it received a shot in the arm when former Conservative MP Jay Hill took over the leadership.
High unemployment, a key issue for Wexit, has been a consistent story in the province for the last five years, since plummeting oil prices began wreaking havoc on the economy.
In July, Alberta’s unemployment rate sat as high as 15.5 per cent, and Premier Jason Kenney warned earlier this year that it could reach even higher, 25 per cent, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Leadership candidate O’Toole “is someone who has a positive vision for the future of Canada and Alberta’s place within Confederation,” said Arundeep Singh Sandhu, who has been involved in provincial politics for years and was tapped by the O’Toole campaign to work as an organizer for northern Alberta.
The Ontario MP launched his campaign in Calgary, and Sandhu pointed to O’Toole’s credentials as the candidate who can quell western separatist anger.
“He’s got experience on the ground, he used to inspect pipelines … he’s done legal analysis with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers,” Sandhu said. O’Toole has vowed to advocate for the oil-and-gas industry to the federal government.
Prior to the pandemic, while candidates were still touring the country, Sandhu said he recalled a meeting O’Toole had with Wexit proponents in such Alberta cities as Red Deer, where he was able to calm their anxieties.
O’Toole has also received official endorsements from more than two-dozen conservative elected officials in Alberta, including the premier in March. Kenney, leader of the United Conservative Party, was once a cabinet minister under Harper.
“I think any of the leadership candidates would love to have the premier’s support,” said Rick Peterson, an Edmonton businessman who was briefly in the race as the only western Canadian candidate.
“But it’s not the overriding decision. I don’t know one Conservative who will say, ‘Ah, the premier voted for Erin O’Toole, then I will, too.'”
Peterson cancelled his bid in March, after he unsuccessfully lobbied the party to push back a deadline on collecting signatures and raising money.
He is now supporting MacKay. “Peter has so many qualities that would make him more appealing to ridings and to Canadians that we need,” he said.
MacKay hails from the Progressive Conservative half of the two parties that merged to form the current Conservative Party in 2004, and thus he has a broader appeal in urban ridings in the Toronto region and Montreal, where Conservatives made no inroads last year, Peterson said.
“The bottom line is who is going to be the person that can help form the next Conservative majority government?”
While MacKay and O’Toole are the perceived front-runners in the leadership race, some party insiders are warning not to dismiss Leslyn Lewis’s chances.
Though many of her official endorsements are from Ontario, the Toronto lawyer has snagged the backing of some Alberta conservatives and raised $1.8 million in donations.
Social issues key for young voters
For some younger Alberta Conservatives, how the next leader responds to social issues may well play a role in whether they’ll be the right person to unseat the Liberals in Ottawa in the next federal election.
“The party will have to touch on the sensitive topics that youth seem to be swayed by,” said Payman Parseyan, who will be Peterson’s campaign manager if he wins the federal nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona. The riding is the only one in Alberta that did not vote Conservative last October, instead remaining loyal to the New Democrats.
“I think that will engage dialogue among youth,” Parseyan said.
Party member Matthew Aquiletti is more direct. “You just have to know there’s no appetite to ban abortion,” he said, referring to a social wedge issue that young conservatives and even MPs would like to avoid. Same-sex marriage is another such issue.
Aquiletti, who lives in Edmonton-Strathcona, said he remembers when he realized the Conservatives would not win in 2019.
“It was around the time they kept asking [Andrew] Scheer about gay marriage,” he said. “He just couldn’t say, you know, gay people should be allowed to get married. He couldn’t say it.”
Aquiletti said he believes these issues are viscerally close to the Canadian electorate and were more likely to turn them away from his party in October and toward more progressive choices than plans to fight global warming. “People like to say, ‘I care about climate change.’ And then they jump into their car and they drive to work every day.”
Alberta Conservatives expected to unite
Whoever gets the nod this Sunday, the O’Toole and MacKay camps say they’ll unite behind the new leader.
It is a view shared by University of Calgary political scientist Melanee Thomas.
“There’s nothing particularly striking to excite Albertans,” Thomas said. “But there’s also nothing particularly striking to make them upset either.”
She said she believes the Wexit crowds are unlikely to swell with the selection of one candidate versus another, and, similarly, that social conservatives who still identify with the federal party are unlikely to jump ship because a progressive gets the nod.
“I actually can’t imagine what would get them to lose sight of the prize. The prize is power at the federal and provincial levels.”
Thomas said if there is any conflict, it could be among the party’s higher-ups.
Kenney’s endorsement of O’Toole could be due to the fact that the premier belongs to the social conservative tradition of the federal party and is not a fan of MacKay, she said.
“If we’re going to see any tensions like that, it’ll be between the elites sniping at each other on social media.”
