The leadership race for the federal Conservatives, which ends on Sunday, comes at a time when Albertans are facing challenges on a number of fronts — from a stagnant economy and depressed oil prices to feelings of western anger and alienation.
They expressed their frustrations in last October’s federal election by completely shutting out the governing Liberals, and since that time, the Wexit movement has only grown as a way to express discontent with the federal government.
Despite overwhelming support for the Conservatives in the Prairie provinces, none of the leadership candidates hoping to replace Andrew Scheer are from Western Canada — unlike Stephen Harper, who represented a Calgary riding and served as prime minister from 2006 to 2015.
Peter MacKay, a former Tory cabinet minister under Harper, is from Nova Scotia, while Erin O’Toole is an MP from the Ontario riding of Durham, Derek Sloan represents the riding of Hastings-Lennox and Addington, also in Ontario, and Leslyn Lewis is from Toronto.
As if a candidate in the Conservative leadership race itself, the central Alberta town of Drayton Valley has “Pulling Together” as an official slogan, written on a clock tower overlooking one of its main squares — seemingly speaking to the theme of unity that has often come up in the party’s leadership race.
But spend a few hours in this community, about 130 kilometres southwest of Edmonton, and you’re just as likely to meet people who see themselves drifting further apart from both the country and the federal party this province has long supported.
“They’re not helping out the people a whole lot here,” said Chris Burch, a resident of the oil town for 30 years who lost his oil-and-gas job five years ago and now relies solely on income from an a bed and breakfast.
“It just seems like nobody has a voice anymore,” he said, expressing frustration about both the federal government as well as provincial and federal conservative parties.
Drayton Valley resident Chris Burch, who lost his job in the oil-and-gas industry five years ago, says none of the federal Conservative Party leadership choices appeal to him. (Peter Evans/CBC )
Burch said he has previously been a stalwart supporter of conservative parties at both the provincial and federal levels. His vote went that way last year as well, in both the Alberta and federal elections.
Now, though, Burch said he is eyeing the Wexit movement, which supports the separation of the four most western provinces from Canada — fuelled by economic decline and feelings of alienation from Ottawa.
“Look at this town, I mean, half the town is empty buildings,” he said.
The 2016 Statistics Canada census found that 8.8 per cent of Drayton Valley residents were unemployed, above the national average of seven per cent. The Alberta government says almost 300 people left the town between 2015 and last year, reducing the population to just under 7,400.
Jared Wiens said he is willing to give the country another chance, but just barely.
“Peter MacKay is the guy I’m supporting,” he said.
“We need a lot of change, but honestly, if Peter MacKay is not the man to do it, then I think western separation is our only option.”
Another town resident, Jo Stuckenberg, has a more cautious view of MacKay.
“I don’t think that his heart is in the West,” she said, adding she nevertheless thinks he has the appeal to win over most Canadian Conservatives.
“Perhaps the western premiers can get to work on him and get him to see our point of view,” she said.
WATCH | A veteran Alberta conservative weighs in on leadership race:
Former Progressive Conservative MLA David Dorward speculates about whom Albertans might vote for in the Conservative leadership race and the federal party’s future in the province. 3:31
High unemployment, a key issue for Wexit, has been a consistent story in the province for the last five years, since plummeting oil prices began wreaking havoc on the economy.
In July, Alberta’s unemployment rate sat as high as 15.5 per cent, and Premier Jason Kenney warned earlier this year that it could reach even higher, 25 per cent, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The four candidates vying to lead the Conservative Party of Canada include, left to right, Erin O’Toole, Peter MacKay, Derek Sloan and Leslyn Lewis. Although none of them are from the West, they have all vowed to better represent the interests of western Canadians. A winner is expected to be announced on Sunday. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press )
Leadership candidate O’Toole “is someone who has a positive vision for the future of Canada and Alberta’s place within Confederation,” said Arundeep Singh Sandhu, who has been involved in provincial politics for years and was tapped by the O’Toole campaign to work as an organizer for northern Alberta.
The Ontario MP launched his campaign in Calgary, and Sandhu pointed to O’Toole’s credentials as the candidate who can quell western separatist anger.
“He’s got experience on the ground, he used to inspect pipelines … he’s done legal analysis with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers,” Sandhu said. O’Toole has vowed to advocate for the oil-and-gas industry to the federal government.
Prior to the pandemic, while candidates were still touring the country, Sandhu said he recalled a meeting O’Toole had with Wexit proponents in such Alberta cities as Red Deer, where he was able to calm their anxieties.
Long involved in provincial conservative politics, Arundeep Singh Sandhu was tapped by Erin O’ Toole’s leadership campaign to work as an organizer for northern Alberta. (Peter Evans/CBC )
O’Toole has also received official endorsements from more than two-dozen conservative elected officials in Alberta, including the premier in March. Kenney, leader of the United Conservative Party, was once a cabinet minister under Harper.
“But it’s not the overriding decision. I don’t know one Conservative who will say, ‘Ah, the premier voted for Erin O’Toole, then I will, too.'”
Peterson cancelled his bid in March, after he unsuccessfully lobbied the party to push back a deadline on collecting signatures and raising money.
Edmonton businessman Rick Peterson briefly brought western Canadian representation to the Conservative leadership race before he dropped out. He is now supporting Peter MacKay. (Trevor Wilson/CBC)
He is now supporting MacKay. “Peter has so many qualities that would make him more appealing to ridings and to Canadians that we need,” he said.
MacKay hails from the Progressive Conservative half of the two parties that merged to form the current Conservative Party in 2004, and thus he has a broader appeal in urban ridings in the Toronto region and Montreal, where Conservatives made no inroads last year, Peterson said.
“The bottom line is who is going to be the person that can help form the next Conservative majority government?”
Though many of her official endorsements are from Ontario, the Toronto lawyer has snagged the backing of some Alberta conservatives and raised $1.8 million in donations.
Social issues key for young voters
For some younger Alberta Conservatives, how the next leader responds to social issues may well play a role in whether they’ll be the right person to unseat the Liberals in Ottawa in the next federal election.
“The party will have to touch on the sensitive topics that youth seem to be swayed by,” said Payman Parseyan, who will be Peterson’s campaign manager if he wins the federal nomination in Edmonton-Strathcona. The riding is the only one in Alberta that did not vote Conservative last October, instead remaining loyal to the New Democrats.
Payman Parseyan says the federal Conservatives will have to pay attention to social issue to win over the youth vote. (Peter Evans/CBC)
“I think that will engage dialogue among youth,” Parseyan said.
Party member Matthew Aquiletti is more direct. “You just have to know there’s no appetite to ban abortion,” he said, referring to a social wedge issue that young conservatives and even MPs would like to avoid. Same-sex marriage is another such issue.
Aquiletti, who lives in Edmonton-Strathcona, said he remembers when he realized the Conservatives would not win in 2019.
“It was around the time they kept asking [Andrew] Scheer about gay marriage,” he said. “He just couldn’t say, you know, gay people should be allowed to get married. He couldn’t say it.”
Conservative voter Matthew Aquiletti says the next leader will have to clearly express themselves on social issues. (Peter Evans/CBC)
Aquiletti said he believes these issues are viscerally close to the Canadian electorate and were more likely to turn them away from his party in October and toward more progressive choices than plans to fight global warming. “People like to say, ‘I care about climate change.’ And then they jump into their car and they drive to work every day.”
Alberta Conservatives expected to unite
Whoever gets the nod this Sunday, the O’Toole and MacKay camps say they’ll unite behind the new leader.
It is a view shared by University of Calgary political scientist Melanee Thomas.
“There’s nothing particularly striking to excite Albertans,” Thomas said. “But there’s also nothing particularly striking to make them upset either.”
She said she believes the Wexit crowds are unlikely to swell with the selection of one candidate versus another, and, similarly, that social conservatives who still identify with the federal party are unlikely to jump ship because a progressive gets the nod.
University of Calgary political scientist Melanee Thomas says most of Alberta’s Conservatives will ultimately rally around whoever wins the leadership race. (Dave Rae/CBC)
“I actually can’t imagine what would get them to lose sight of the prize. The prize is power at the federal and provincial levels.”
Thomas said if there is any conflict, it could be among the party’s higher-ups.
Kenney’s endorsement of O’Toole could be due to the fact that the premier belongs to the social conservative tradition of the federal party and is not a fan of MacKay, she said.
“If we’re going to see any tensions like that, it’ll be between the elites sniping at each other on social media.”
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
