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Albertans tire of fights with Ottawa, as Danielle Smith ups the ‘anti’

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This week, Albertans saw glimpses of the Trudeau government’s strategy for dealing with new Premier Danielle Smith and her devotion to getting tough with Ottawa, or at least Liberal Ottawa.

This early strategy is simply to show up, often with novelty-sized cheques in hand. While Smith won her rural byelection this week, the Liberals barnstormed the province to promote their fall economic statement.

Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne visited Edmonton to subsidize a hydrogen project; Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland spoke to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce; Seniors Minister Kamal Khera gave grants to seniors projects; and Calgary MP George Chahal announced support for high-speed internet.

The parry from the United Conservative Party premier seemed traditional: a public letter to the prime minister, reprising grievances about the carbon tax, the project assessment Bill C-69 and energy security. Smith’s promised next act, later this month, is the temperature-raiser: the untraditional (and constitutionally-questionable) Alberta Sovereignty Act.

But a funny thing’s happened over these last few years, as the UCP determined Jason Kenney’s anti-Ottawa act needed a more bellicose upgrade and installed Smith. Albertans have gotten less angry on federal issues, with a waning appetite for firewalls, fair deals and similar programs than at any point in the last four years.

At a boil? Medium-low heat, perhaps

It’s not that the findings from CBC News’ latest survey of Albertans shows an Ottawa love-in. Far from it, with 61 per cent of Albertans still believing the equalization program is unfair to Alberta, and 57 per cent feeling that other parts of Canada will get looked after before Alberta, no matter who’s in charge federally.

But after the years of pugilism from Smith and Kenney, along with a referendum about equalization, negative sentiments about those federal grants to worse-off provinces are lower than they were last year, or in 2020, or in the Notley government days of 2018. And this is the first time over that span fewer than 60 per cent of Albertans have felt other provinces were better taken care of, according to the poll of 1,200 Albertans by Janet Brown Opinion Research.


Pro-separatist sentiment is also down, which should please any federalist in Alberta, of any political stripe. Twenty per cent of respondents feel the province would be better off if they left Canada, down from 30 per cent when the same question was asked in April 2021.

Of course, no matter how Smith was accused of promoting separatism with her federal-law-defying Sovereignty Act by critics (including some people now in her cabinet), the premier has insisted that isn’t her game. The poll also shows that the policies she is keen on implementing aren’t much more popular than idealizing Alberta separation.

Smith campaigned on getting Albertans out of the Canada Pension Plan, but 60 per cent of Albertans oppose that idea and only 31 per cent agree with it. That’s down from 36 per cent in March 2020, when Kenney’s fair deal panel was busy reviving some of the old “firewall letter” ideas from a previous period of frustration with Ottawa Liberals.


Smith also plans to bring in an Alberta provincial police force and transition away from local RCMP detachments, showing more zeal for the idea than Kenney’s team had. That idea barely has the backing of one-quarter of Albertans, a lower number than a couple years ago.

The poll shows that a province-only pension scheme would especially stoke anxiety among Alberta seniors, a group the UCP cannot afford to agitate. Only 22 per cent of them support the idea of an Alberta Pension Plan.

Smith’s stance on policing is also offside with another key element of the UCP voter base — small-city and rural residents. People who live in those communities with RCMP detachments are as likely to disagree with the provincial police takeover as residents of Calgary and Edmonton, which already have their own police forces.

The poll didn’t ask about Smith’s Sovereignty Act; it’s hard to say exactly what it will do before Smith actually introduces this much-hyped legislation in late November. However, slightly less than half of Albertans (46 per cent) say that Alberta should work toward achieving more independence from the federal government — which means that at least there’s relatively better support for the broader aims of Smith’s federal agenda, even if it’s still a minority of people.


But these are all plays to enthuse her political base. The poll reveals sharp partisan divides. Eighty-two per cent of UCP supporters want more Alberta sovereignty, while 16 per cent of NDP supporters do. For a provincial pension, 57 per cent of UCP voters like it, compared to nine per cent of New Democrat voters. Ditching the RCMP wins over 48 per cent of those on Team Smith, and eight per cent on Team Notley

Even Smith’s campaign slogan “Alberta First,” has that same sort of divisiveness. Half of United Conservative supporters say they feel more attached to Alberta than Canada, while only nine per cent of NDP voters do. Albertans generally are most likely to have equal attachment to both the country and province.

Smith seems to want to create more space between herself and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau than Kenney ever did, even if social distancing isn’t really a thing anymore. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

The challenge for Smith, in picking the UCP sides of these polarizing debates, is that there are more Albertans who prefer the NDP. She’s nine percentage points behind Rachel Notley’s party.

It’s also clear that problems with Ottawa aren’t a primary concern for Albertans, ranking behind health care, inflation and even the headaches induced by the provincial government. There have been signs the new premier will focus on those higher public priorities.

And yet, in her byelection victory speech, Smith directed some of her most fiery rhetoric in Ottawa’s direction: “Under Trudeau, Confederation has devolved into a toxic, divisive parent-child relationship.” But Albertans don’t seem to find it that toxic.

As the province eagerly waits to see how corrosive or flat the Sovereignty Act winds up being, let’s conclude by chewing over another unasked question. Is the problem that Smith is attaching herself to ideas that are growing more unpopular, or do these ideas become less palatable when they’re attached to Smith?


The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between Oct. 12 and 30, 2022, by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of half landlines and half cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e. residential and personal) was 16.3 per cent.

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Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

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Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Promise tracker: What the Saskatchewan Party and NDP pledge to do if they win Oct. 28

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REGINA – Saskatchewan’s provincial election is on Oct. 28. Here’s a look at some of the campaign promises made by the two major parties:

Saskatchewan Party

— Continue withholding federal carbon levy payments to Ottawa on natural gas until the end of 2025.

— Reduce personal income tax rates over four years; a family of four would save $3,400.

— Double the Active Families Benefit to $300 per child per year and the benefit for children with disabilities to $400 a year.

— Direct all school divisions to ban “biological boys” from girls’ change rooms in schools.

— Increase the First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit to $15,000 from $10,000.

— Reintroduce the Home Renovation Tax Credit, allowing homeowners to claim up to $4,000 in renovation costs on their income taxes; seniors could claim up to $5,000.

— Extend coverage for insulin pumps and diabetes supplies to seniors and young adults

— Provide a 50 per cent refundable tax credit — up to $10,000 — to help cover the cost of a first fertility treatment.

— Hire 100 new municipal officers and 70 more officers with the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.

— Amend legislation to provide police with more authority to address intoxication, vandalism and disturbances on public property.

— Platform cost of $1.2 billion, with deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in 2027.

NDP

— Pause the 15-cent-a-litre gas tax for six months, saving an average family about $350.

— Remove the provincial sales tax from children’s clothes and ready-to-eat grocery items like rotisserie chickens and granola bars.

— Pass legislation to limit how often and how much landlords can raise rent.

— Repeal the law that requires parental consent when children under 16 want to change their names or pronouns at school.

— Launch a provincewide school nutrition program.

— Build more schools and reduce classroom sizes.

— Hire 800 front-line health-care workers in areas most in need.

— Launch an accountability commission to investigate cost overruns for government projects.

— Scrap the marshals service.

— Hire 100 Mounties and expand detox services.

— Platform cost of $3.5 billion, with small deficits in the first three years and a small surplus in the fourth year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct .17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Bad weather forecast for B.C. election day as record numbers vote in advance polls

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VANCOUVER – More than a million British Columbians have already cast their provincial election ballots, smashing the advance voting record ahead of what weather forecasters say will be a rain-drenched election day in much of B.C., with snow also predicted for the north.

Elections BC said Thursday that 1,001,331 people had cast ballots in six days of advance voting, easily breaking a record set during the pandemic election four years ago.

More than 28 per cent of all registered electors have voted, potentially putting the province on track for a big final turnout on Saturday.

“It reflects what I believe, which is this election is critically important for the future of our province,” New Democrat Leader David Eby said Thursday at a news conference in Vancouver. “I understand why British Columbians are out in numbers. We haven’t seen questions like this on the ballot in a generation.”

He said voters are faced with the choice of supporting his party’s plans to improve affordability, public health care and education, while the B.C. Conservatives, led by John Rustad, are proposing to cut services and are fielding candidates who support conspiracy theories about the COVID-19 pandemic and espouse racist views.

Rustad held no public availabilities on Thursday.

Elections BC said the record advance vote tally includes about 223,000 people who voted on the final day of advance voting Wednesday, the last day of advance polls, shattering the one-day record set on Tuesday by more than 40,000 votes.

The previous record for advance voting in a B.C. election was set in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic, when about 670,000 people voted early, representing about 19 per cent of registered voters.

Some ridings have now seen turnout of more than 35 per cent, including in NDP Leader David Eby’s Vancouver-Point Grey riding where 36.5 per cent of all electors have voted.

There has also been big turnout in some Vancouver Island ridings, including Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where 39 per cent of electors have voted, and Victoria-Beacon Hill, where Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is running, with 37.2 per cent.

Advance voter turnout in Rustad’s riding of Nechako Lakes was 30.5 per cent.

Total turnout in 2020 was 54 per cent, down from about 61 per cent in 2017.

Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia, said many factors are at play in the advance voter turnout.

“If you have an early option, if you have an option where there are fewer crowds, fewer lineups that you have to deal with, then that’s going to be a much more desirable option,” said Prest.

“So, having the possibility of voting across multiple advanced voting days is something that more people are looking to as a way to avoid last-minute lineups or heavy weather.”

Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.

Environment Canada said the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.

Eby said the forecast of an atmospheric weather storm on election day will become a “ballot question” for some voters who are concerned about the approaches the parties have towards addressing climate change.

But he said he is confident people will not let the storm deter them from voting.

“I know British Columbians are tough and they’re not going to let even an atmospheric river stop them from voting,” said Eby.

In northern B.C., heavy snow is in the forecast starting Friday and through to Saturday for areas along the Yukon boundary.

Elections BC said it will focus on ensuring it is prepared for bad weather, said Andrew Watson, senior director of communications.

“We’ve also been working with BC Hydro to make sure that they’re aware of all of our voting place locations so that they can respond quickly if there are any power outages,” he said.

Elections BC also has paper backups for all of its systems in case there is a power outage, forcing them to go through manual procedures, Watson said.

Prest said the dramatic downfall of the Official Opposition BC United Party just before the start of the campaign and voter frustration could also be contributing to the record size of the advance vote.

It’s too early to say if the province is experiencing a “renewed enthusiasm for voting,” he said.

“As a political scientist, I think it would be a good thing to see, but I’m not ready to conclude that’s what we are seeing just yet,” he said, adding, “this is one of the storylines to watch come Saturday.”

Overall turnout in B.C. elections has generally been dwindling compared with the 71.5 per cent turnout for the 1996 vote.

Adam Olsen, Green Party campaign chair, said the advance voting turnout indicates people are much more engaged in the campaign than they were in the weeks leading up to the start of the campaign in September.

“All we know so far is that people are excited to go out and vote early,” he said. “The real question will be does that voter turnout stay up throughout election night?”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. An earlier version said more than 180,000 voters cast their votes on Wednesday.



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