Jason Kenney’s imminent resignation as Alberta premier shows that even leaders with track records of success can fall victim to unpredictable crises, poor leadership choices and the unspoken norms of provincial politics.
Kenney failed because he didn’t fully understand Alberta’s populist and leader-centric culture and its role in creating expectations about how the province should be governed. But even though he faced a challenging set of problems, the final outcome is Kenney’s own responsibility.
He represented something that some contemporary Canadian conservatives struggle with: a coherent, consistent and electorally viable conservative approach to governing.
That’s why Kenney was able to establish himself as the heir apparent to Alberta’s conservative movement in 2017. In doing so, he managed to unite two bitterly divided parties, the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose, into the United Conservative Party (UCP) and delivered a big majority win in the 2018 provincial election.
Alberta Wildrose leader Brian Jean and Kenney announce a unity deal in Edmonton on May 18, 2017. Five years later to the day, Kenney is out as leader of the United Conservative Party – and Alberta premier. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jason Franson
Started on a high as premier
As premier, Kenney not only had the support of his large caucus, but he also had the majority of the province behind him to pursue his promises to expand the energy sector and take a more confrontational stance against what some Albertans believe is an increasingly hostile federal government.
These are both only partially true. A full understanding of what occurred requires a broader look at Alberta’s general political culture and history.
Alberta is anti-establishment
Although historically supportive of conservative governments, Alberta’s conservatism is consistently overstated. In addition to being the home of notable leftist movements, polls have consistently shown that Albertans are in line with the rest of Canada in supporting high levels of government spending and interventions to address issues related to poverty, the environment and discrimination.
This is largely the product of history, because Alberta’s role as a frontier society fostered the belief that prosperity and well-being would come through self-reliance, fairness and the wisdom of ordinary people, rather than tradition, authority or hierarchy. This has come to be romanticized as the prototype of the contrarian, free-thinking Albertan “maverick.”
Riders and their horses pass through a canola field on an Alberta summer’s day. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
This populist culture is evident in direct democracy initiatives at the local level that has allowed citizens to have a more immediate role in decision-making through practices like referendums and the ability to recall elected politicians.
But it’s also created a leader-centric provincial dynamic. Through the common practice of attacking the federal government or other supposedly hostile forces, several leaders have found success in positioning themselves as the authentic voice of Alberta.
It’s a tricky dynamic: despite having significant power, leaders are also pressured to be effective, fair, democratic and anti-elitist towards the public and their own caucus. Alberta has had popular, larger-than-life leaders, but it’s also had a number of premiers who — due to economic downturns, personal scandals or inadequate caucus management — can be regarded as failures.
Uneasy alliance
What puts Kenney in the second category is the fact that enough of his party lacked confidence in his leadership. Wildrose party members, who Kenney had successfully merged into the UCP coalition, initially liked his contrarian tradition of opposing what they viewed to be the elitist, self-interested and out-of-touch power brokers in the mainstream PC party. To them, Kenney had simply returned to the old form.
The trends were there before the pandemic. The race between Kenney and Brian Jean, the former leader of Wildrose, for control of the UCP left a bitter aftertaste due to allegations of criminal identity fraud that is the subject of an ongoing RCMP probe.
Brian Jean arrives at the United Conservative caucus in Calgary to determine next steps after Kenney announced he is stepping down. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
The province’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic entrenched this opposition. The response itself was inconsistent as Kenney manoeuvred between a public that supported restrictions and a more skeptical caucus.
Kenney’s failure, therefore, is largely the immediate consequences of his own leadership choices. But there’s a broader context. The premier not only faced an unprecedented crisis, but dealt with a profoundly contrarian wing of the Albertan conservative movement. Kenney, to his credit, made an effort to consult and accommodate these voices once dissent began to congeal.
But Alberta provincial politics is a gamble. Although leaders have the potential to become era-defining personalities — think Ralph Klein or Peter Lougheed — they can also be quickly cast aside. Kenney’s fall from grace is a vivid illustration of the volatility of the province’s political landscape.
New Brunswick voters have elected a Liberal majority government, tossing out the incumbent Progressive Conservatives after six years in power and handing the reins to the first woman ever to lead the province. Liberal Leader Susan Holt spent much of the campaign rolling out proposed fixes for a health-care system racked by a doctor shortage, overcrowded emergency rooms and long wait-times. She promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028. (Oct. 22, 2024)
Susan Holt has made history in New Brunswick by becoming the first woman to serve as the leader of the province’s Liberal Party, a significant milestone in the province’s political landscape. Holt’s leadership victory signals a new era of representation, gender equality, and change in the region, which has long been dominated by male politicians.
Holt’s journey to the top has been one of perseverance and dedication. Before entering politics, she built a distinguished career in the private sector, where she held numerous leadership positions. Her experience in business development and public policy has equipped her with the skills needed to navigate the complex world of politics.
In a province where women have historically been underrepresented in politics, Holt’s election represents a watershed moment. Women’s involvement in leadership roles has been steadily increasing nationwide, but New Brunswick, like many parts of Canada, has seen slower progress in achieving gender parity. Holt’s rise to the top of the Liberal Party not only shatters a glass ceiling but also serves as an inspiration for future generations of women aiming for political leadership.
As the leader of the New Brunswick Liberal Party, Holt has laid out a vision of inclusivity and progress. Her policies focus on economic development, healthcare reform, environmental sustainability, and addressing social issues that have plagued the province. She has also emphasized the importance of transparent governance and creating opportunities for underrepresented communities, making her platform both modern and forward-thinking.
Holt’s leadership arrives at a time when many voters are calling for change, especially in the face of challenges like economic uncertainty and the need for healthcare improvements. She aims to bring fresh ideas to tackle these issues while ensuring that all citizens, regardless of their background, have a voice in government decisions.
Susan Holt joins the ranks of other trailblazing women across Canada who have led provincial parties and governments. Women like former Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne have paved the way, and now Holt is contributing to this growing legacy of female political leadership in Canada.
Her achievement highlights not only the growing number of women entering politics but also the demand for leaders who can bring diverse perspectives to the table. In a field often dominated by entrenched traditions, Holt’s election is a step toward a more inclusive and representative political landscape in New Brunswick.
Holt’s leadership signals a broader shift in Canadian politics, where more women and diverse voices are gaining prominence. For young women across the country, her rise serves as a powerful reminder that leadership roles are within reach, even in traditionally male-dominated spheres.
With her election, Susan Holt has proven that perseverance, skill, and a vision for change can break even the toughest barriers. Her leadership will not only reshape New Brunswick’s political future but also inspire others across Canada to pursue leadership positions and continue to challenge the status quo.
NDP Leader Carla Beck has two planned campaign events today, starting the day with an availability in Moose Jaw and then later this evening attending an event in the capital with the Regina Medical Staff Association.
Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe, meanwhile, will speak in Prince Albert at the start of Voting Week in the province.
Saskatchewan residents can vote for five days starting today in the lead-up to next week’s provincial election, although polls won’t be open Sunday.
The NDP and the Saskatchewan Party are urging voters to cast their ballots early.
Voters can find their polling stations on their information cards or by visiting the Elections Saskatchewan website.
Chief electoral officer Michael Boda says there are about 810,000 registered voters in Saskatchewan.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.
