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Alexa, is the voice-assistant industry doomed?

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A recent report indicating that Amazon’s Alexa division is on track to lose $10 billion US this year is raising questions about the future of the entire voice-assistant industry.

“I think there is a next-generation battle for voice assistance that will require very, very deep pockets to survive,” said Andy Wu, an assistant professor of business administration in the strategy unit at Harvard Business School.

Voice-assistant software driven by artificial intelligence responds to verbal commands via enabled devices; that can include asking them to play music, look up general information, set timers or place orders to a restaurant.

According to the market research company eMarketer, around 24.2 per cent of the total U.S. population will use Google Assistant this year, 23 per cent will use Apple’s Siri, and 21 per cent will use Alexa.

But as Harry Guinness, writing for Popular Science, points out, what’s notable is that Siri and Google Assistant come pre-installed on smartphones, while Alexa is primarily available on dedicated smart speakers.

“To get by in modern society, you kind of need a smartphone — but nobody needs a smart speaker,” he wrote.

According to a 2021 report, smart-speaker ownership hit an all-time high last year, with almost 50 per cent of internet users in the U.S. owning at least one smart speaker.

Yet the Amazon division responsible for Alexa, the Echo devices on which Alexa runs, and Prime Video streaming, had an operating loss of more than $3 billion US in the first quarter of this year, according to a Business Insider report.

The majority of that loss was blamed on Alexa, the report said, adding that the same division is on track to lose over $10 billion US in 2022.

Meanwhile, Google Assistant and Apple’s Siri are reportedly also struggling to fully monetize these services.

Around 24.2 per cent of the total U.S. population will use Google Assistant this year, according to the market research company eMarketer. (Jeff Chiu/The Associated Press)

While the devices — at least in the case of Amazon’s Alexa Echo — are reportedly sold at cost, the services on the devices aren’t translating to profits. As Business Insider reported, Alexa may have been getting a billion interactions a week, but most of those conversations were trivial commands to play music or ask about the weather.

All of this has some analysts asking: Are all voice assistants doomed?

“We have to wonder: Is time running out for Big Tech voice assistants? Everyone seems to be struggling with them,” wrote Ron Amadeo, reviews editor at the sci-tech website Ars Technica.

No clear monetization model

According to Wu, it’s not surprising that these companies are taking such large losses on voice assistants.

“The investment in AI technology is tremendously expensive, and then the server space needed to process all this stuff is huge.… Even at the level of the device itself, they’re definitely taking a loss on the bill of materials for a long time,” he said.

“And so in the short term, there isn’t a very clear monetization model.”

These companies are sinking so much money in, Wu said, because they view voice-assistant technology as the next evolution in computer interface — much like the mouse or the touch screen.

“We’ve seen that they’ve already been willing to take significant losses. But what we don’t know yet is whether or not the voice-assistant technology is what we would call a ‘winner take most’ market. Or is it going to be a more fragmented market?” he said.

In this 2018 file photo, Craig Federighi, Apple’s senior vice-president of software engineering, speaks about Siri during an announcement of new products in San Jose, Calif. (Marcio Jose Sanchez/The Associated Press)

Microsoft, with its Cortana voice-assistant technology, has already dropped out, said Wu, as have other companies.

That means the market may not be big enough to support more than one main player, he said. But between Google and Amazon, Wu said he sees Google continuing the fight.

“I think that there is a more core link between the AI technology and Google’s general investments in AI. I think Google would want to push forward, regardless, to the extent that voice is the next generation of computer interface that will completely disrupt their traditional text-based search business.”

What continues to be a major hurdle, experts say, is consumer knowledge; consumers aren’t fully aware of the capabilities of their devices.

Alexa, for example, has thousands of connected apps — or what Amazon calls “skills” — that can be used to do things like order food, walk you through a recipe or, in a connected home, even turn on the washing machine.

“Most people don’t know about the vast majority of these skills — and that is actually a problem with marketing or advertising in that there’s not a convenient way for people to discover the apps,” Wu said.

More marketing needed

Navid Bahmani, an assistant professor of marketing at Rowan University in Glassboro, N.J., agreed that the main challenge facing voice technology — and the companies backing it — is consumer adoption.

“They do need to do a lot more marketing of the device and its capabilities,” he said. “[There’s a] wide variety of different things consumers can’t do because they just don’t know about it.”

Consumers often know about the very basic features that come right out of the box, he said, but they haven’t been fully informed about all the different companies coming out with apps that expand the devices’ capabilities.

“It’s the equivalent of buying a smartphone and not knowing that there’s an app store,” he said.

Still, Bahmani is optimistic about the future of the industry.

“My opinion is that, no, the industry isn’t going anywhere,” he said. “If anything, it’s very early in its stages. It’s going to be growing.”

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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