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Algorithms are moulding and shaping our politics. Here’s how to avoid being gamed

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In 2016, evidence began to mount that then-South African president Jacob Zuma and a family of Indian-born businessmen, the Guptas, were responsible for widespread “state capture”. It was alleged that the Gupta family influenced Zuma’s political appointments and benefited unfairly from lucrative tenders.

The Guptas began to look for a way to divert attention away from them. They enlisted the help of British public relations firm Bell Pottinger, which drew on the country’s existing racial and economic tensions to develop a social media campaign centred on the role of “white monopoly capital” in continuing “economic apartheid”.

The campaign was driven by the power of algorithms. The company created over 100 fake Twitter bots or automated Twitter accounts that run on bot software – computer programs designed to perform tasks and actions, ranging from rather simple ones to quite complex ones; in this case, to simulate human responses for liking and retweeting tweets.

This weaponisation of communications is not limited to South Africa. Examples from elsewhere in Africa abound, including Russia currying favour in Burkina Faso via Facebook and coordinated Twitter campaigns by factions representing opposing Kenyan politicians. It’s seen beyond the continent, too – in March 2023, researchers identified a network of thousands of fake Twitter accounts created to support former US president Donald Trump.

Legal scholar Antoinette Rouvroy calls this “algorithmic governmentality”. It’s the reduction of government to algorithmic processes as if society is a problem of big data sets rather than one of how collective life is (or should be) arranged and managed by the individuals in that society.

In a recent paper, I coined the term “algopopulism”: algorithmically aided politics. The political content in our personal feeds not only represents the world and politics to us. It creates new, sometimes “alternative”, realities. It changes how we encounter and understand politics and even how we understand reality itself.

One reason algopopulism spreads so effectively is that it’s very difficult to know exactly how our perceptions are being shaped. This is deliberate. Algorithms are designed in a sophisticated way to override human reasoning.

So, what can you do to protect yourself from being “gamed” by algorithmic processes? The answers, I suggest, lie in understanding a bit more about the digital shift that’s brought us to this point and the ideas of a British statistician, Thomas Bayes, who lived more than 300 years ago.

How the shift happened

Five recent developments in the technology space have led to algorithmic governmentality: considerable improvements in hardware; generous, flexible storage via the cloud; the explosion of data and data accumulation; the development of deep convoluted networks and sophisticated algorithms to sort through the extracted data; and the development of fast, cheap networks to transfer data.

Together, these developments have transformed data science into something more than a mere technological tool. It has become a method for using data not only to predict how you engage with digital media, but to preempt your actions and thoughts.

This is not to say that all digital technology is harmful. Rather, I want to point out one of its greatest risks: we are all susceptible to having our thoughts shaped by algorithms, sometimes in ways that can have real-world effects, such as when they affect democratic elections.

Bayesian statistics

That’s where Thomas Bayes comes in. Bayes was an English statistician; Bayesian statistics, the dominant paradigm in machine learning, is named after him.

Before Bayes, computational processes relied on frequentist statistics. Most people have encountered this method in one way or another, as in the case of how probable it is that a coin will land heads-up and tails-down. This approach starts from the assumption that the coin is fair and hasn’t been tampered with. This is called a null hypothesis.

Bayesian statistics does not require a null hypothesis; it changes the kinds of questions asked about probability entirely. Instead of assuming a coin is fair and measuring the probability of heads or tails, it asks us instead to consider whether the system for measuring probability is fair. Instead of assuming the truth of a null hypothesis, Bayesian inference starts with a measure of subjective belief which it updates as more evidence – or data – is gathered in real time.

How does this play out via algorithms? Let’s say you heard a rumour that the world is flat and you do a Google search for articles that affirm this view. Based on this search, the measure of subjective belief the algorithms have to work with is “the world is flat”. Gradually, the algorithms will curate your feed to show you articles that confirm this belief unless you have purposefully searched for opposing views too.

That’s because Bayesian approaches use prior distributions, knowledge or beliefs as a starting point of probability. Unless you change your prior distributions, the algorithm will continue providing evidence to confirm your initial measure of subjective belief.

But how can you know to change your priors if your priors are being confirmed by your search results all the time? This is the dilemma of algopopulism: Bayesian probability allows algorithms to create sophisticated filter bubbles that are difficult to discount because all your search results are based on your previous searches.

So, there is no longer a uniform version of reality presented to a specific population, like there was when TV news was broadcast to everyone in a nation at the same time. Instead, we each have a version of reality. Some of this overlaps with what others see and hear and some doesn’t.

Engaging differently online

Understanding this can change how you search online and engage with knowledge.

To avoid filter bubbles, always search for opposing views. If you haven’t done this from the start, do a search on a private browser and compare the results you get. More importantly, check your personal investment. What do you get out of taking a specific stance on a subject? For example, does it make you feel part of something meaningful because you lack real-life social bonds? Finally, endeavour to choose reliable sources. Be aware of a source’s bias from the start and avoid anonymously published content.

In these ways we can all be custodians of our individual and collective behaviour.

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Israel has a right to defend itself, but wider war must be avoided: Trudeau

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau condemned missile attack on  Wednesday, but said the international community must do everything it can to help avoid a bigger regional war.

Exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon over the last year erupted into broader violence in the last week as Israel ramped up its campaign against Hezbollah by air and Tuesday began sending in ground troops.

Also on Tuesday, Iran launched some 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, and warned of a “harsher” attack if Israel responds in kind.

“It is further destabilizing action by this terrorist regime in the region, putting civilians at risk, running the risk of a wider war,” Trudeau said after speaking with this G7 counterparts in a joint call Wednesday morning.

“Obviously, Israel has the right to defend itself against these attacks. At the same time, we have to try and do everything we can to avoid a wider war, to protect civilians and to get humanitarian aid into affected regions.”

Officials in Washington said U.S. destroyers assisted in Israel’s defence, while the U.K. defence secretary said British forces played a part but did not specify what. Defence Minister Bill Blair said Canadian forces were not involved at all.

Trudeau said in his call with other G7 leaders, all agreed the international community must do everything it can to achieve peace and stability in the region. That includes reiterating calls for a ceasefire and pushing for a two-state solution where both Israel and a Palestinian state can exist safely.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who holds the rotating presidency of the G7, maintains that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

Earlier in the day, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that in just a week the alarming situation in Lebanon has gone from bad “to much, much worse,” and called for an end to the hostilities.

“The sickening cycle of escalation after escalation that is leading the people of the Middle East straight over the cliff” has to stop, he said.

Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly acknowledged Wednesday that Israel has already vowed that Iran would face “severe consequences” for its attack and that it would retaliate.

“Canada’s role right now, Canada’s goal, is to make sure that there’s no full-scale war in the Middle East, and so that’s why we’ll continue to engage diplomatically,” Joly said.

The rapid escalation in the conflict comes just days before the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that saw 1,200 people killed and 250 taken hostage in Israel.

The attack sparked immediate retaliation from Israel in the besieged Gaza Strip, where tens of thousands have since been reported dead and millions have been displaced.

The international community has harboured concerns that the Israel-Hamas war would lead to a broader regional conflict in the Middle East for the last year.

With the massive increase in hostilities in Lebanon and the latest attack on Israel from Iran, those fears are coming true.

Israeli airstrikes have been reported in recent days in Gaza to the south, Lebanon to the north and Syria to the east.

Joly once again called on Canadians who are still in Lebanon to accept help to leave the country. Since Friday, Global Affairs Canada has been helping citizens book plane tickets out of Lebanon.

So far more than 400 Canadians have left through the airport in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, and roughly 300 more were due to leave on the next flights, Joly said. All the flights are destined for Istanbul.

Joly’s department estimates there are as many as 45,000 Canadians in Lebanon, and has warned in the past that Canada may not be able to help them escape if commercial flights are grounded. The government has been preparing a possible evacuation plan for months.

Still, many of the seats the government has offered on flights out of Lebanon remain vacant, Joly said, begging those who are offered a seat to take it.

“I know it’s difficult. I know it’s difficult to leave your loved ones,” she said.

“Please, this is about your own safety and the safety of your loved ones.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 2, 2024.

— With files from The Associated Press

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JD Vance and Tim Walz to face off during vice-presidential debate

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SAINT PAUL, Minn. – Tim Walz and JD Vance will face off on the debate stage tonight in a matchup that both parties are hoping will demonstrate their vice-presidential candidate’s ability to connect with voters in battleground states that will play a critical role in deciding November’s election.

“They will both be trying to connect with those key Midwestern voters, that’s part of why each one of them was chosen,” said Matthew Lebo, a specialist in U.S. politics at Western University in London, Ont.

“Thinking about especially male voters in those key Midwestern swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.”

Those states swung Republican when former president Donald Trump won the 2016 election, and in 2020 they helped put President Joe Biden in the White House.

Walz, the 60-year-old Democratic governor of Minnesota, has embraced his folksy, plain-spoken demeanour since he joined the ticket earlier this summer. He’s leaned into his Midwestern roots and the title “coach Walz” from his former football coach days.

The strategy has seen him garner high favourability in polls but he will be facing a formidable opponent in Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio.

The 40-year-old has become a mainstay on cable news shows since he was announced as Donald Trump’s running mate in July.

Formerly a Trump critic, Vance was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022 after becoming one of the former president’s loudest supporters.

Before entering the political sphere, Vance rose to fame with the 2016 publication of his memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy.”

The Republican campaign released a video ahead of the debate to show Vance’s “hillbilly energy.” In the video, which features photos from his childhood, Vance talked about jobs disappearing from communities and the sense of hopelessness that left behind.

Both men are expected to play on their working-class narratives during the debate to give credibility to their party’s plans for the economy and inflation.

Political experts have said Vice-President Kamala Harris dominated the presidential debate last month by prodding Trump into tirades that strayed far from his intended goals of focusing on immigration and the economy.

Aaron Kall, the director of debate for the University of Michigan, said it’s unlikely Vance will fall for the same strategy, and he expects Tuesday night’s debate will lean more into policy.

But that doesn’t mean there won’t be barbs.

Walz was given credit for coining the label “weird” to describe his Republican opponents and the attack has stuck to Vance, with numerous viral videos and memes targeting the senator’s past comments and encounters with voters.

“They really couldn’t be more diametrically opposed, kind of like Harris and Trump,” Kall said.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of fireworks, given their personalities.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 1, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C. Greens release tax-heavy platform as Conservatives push nuclear power

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British Columbia’s Green Party has released an election platform that’s heavy on taxing the wealthy to support people’s wellness, while the provincial Conservatives have unveiled a plan for making B.C. energy-independent.

Green Leader Sonia Furstenau says her party’s 72-page platform, which includes doubling existing property tax rates and adding a new two-per-cent tax on homes over $3 million, is aimed at creating “an economy that serves the people” instead of “delivering harm.”

The platform is the first to be released by a major party for the fall provincial election and includes an 18 per cent proposed tax for corporate profits over $1 billion, while there would be investments of $650 million annually in “municipal infrastructure to support new housing” and $250 million to expand child care.

Meanwhile, B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad says his party will reverse course on provincial policies on vehicle electrification and heat pumps under the New Democrats.

Rustad says those policies are “pushing B.C.’s energy system to the brink,” adding that a Conservative government would look at building the infrastructure needed to support B.C.’s electricity demands, including conducting a feasibility study on nuclear power.

In Castlegar today, NDP Leader David Eby pledged a re-elected New Democrat government would cover the travel costs for cancer treatments and extend employment protections for people with serious illnesses from eight days to 27 weeks.

Eby told a campaign event in the southeast B.C. city that rural residents face “unique challenges” accessing health care, and bolstering travel assistance would allow them to be reimbursed for mileage if they can’t get a flight to access treatment.

The New Democrats say in a statement that changes to the province’s travel assistance program would allow people to receive “up-front payments.”

Rustad said during an announcement in Brackendale outside of Squamish that the NDP’s energy mandates on vehicle electrification and heat pumps are “pie-in-the-sky.”

The Conservative leader also says his party will support alternative energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal, but only when the projects “make practical, economic sense.”

Furstenau says she wanted her party platform to “lead by example” in getting away from the back-and-forth politics she says is demonstrated by the NDP and the Conservatives.

She says the Green platform is aimed at presenting a “vision” to take B.C. forward, and urged everyone to “all start voting for what we want” instead of compromising their expectations on an elected government.

As part of the second week of the election campaign, all three major party leaders are expected to come face-to-face for multiple events on Wednesday.

They will debate live in the morning on Vancouver radio station CKNW, followed by an event hosted by the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade.

– With files from Darryl Greer in Castlegar

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 1, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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