In 2016, evidence began to mount that then-South African president Jacob Zuma and a family of Indian-born businessmen, the Guptas, were responsible for widespread “state capture”. It was alleged that the Gupta family influenced Zuma’s political appointments and benefited unfairly from lucrative tenders.
The Guptas began to look for a way to divert attention away from them. They enlisted the help of British public relations firm Bell Pottinger, which drew on the country’s existing racial and economic tensions to develop a social media campaign centred on the role of “white monopoly capital” in continuing “economic apartheid”.
The campaign was driven by the power of algorithms. The company created over 100 fake Twitter bots or automated Twitter accounts that run on bot software – computer programs designed to perform tasks and actions, ranging from rather simple ones to quite complex ones; in this case, to simulate human responses for liking and retweeting tweets.
This weaponisation of communications is not limited to South Africa. Examples from elsewhere in Africa abound, including Russia currying favour in Burkina Faso via Facebook and coordinated Twitter campaigns by factions representing opposing Kenyan politicians. It’s seen beyond the continent, too – in March 2023, researchers identified a network of thousands of fake Twitter accounts created to support former US president Donald Trump.
Legal scholar Antoinette Rouvroy calls this “algorithmic governmentality”. It’s the reduction of government to algorithmic processes as if society is a problem of big data sets rather than one of how collective life is (or should be) arranged and managed by the individuals in that society.
In a recent paper, I coined the term “algopopulism”: algorithmically aided politics. The political content in our personal feeds not only represents the world and politics to us. It creates new, sometimes “alternative”, realities. It changes how we encounter and understand politics and even how we understand reality itself.
One reason algopopulism spreads so effectively is that it’s very difficult to know exactly how our perceptions are being shaped. This is deliberate. Algorithms are designed in a sophisticated way to override human reasoning.
So, what can you do to protect yourself from being “gamed” by algorithmic processes? The answers, I suggest, lie in understanding a bit more about the digital shift that’s brought us to this point and the ideas of a British statistician, Thomas Bayes, who lived more than 300 years ago.
How the shift happened
Five recent developments in the technology space have led to algorithmic governmentality: considerable improvements in hardware; generous, flexible storage via the cloud; the explosion of data and data accumulation; the development of deep convoluted networks and sophisticated algorithms to sort through the extracted data; and the development of fast, cheap networks to transfer data.
Together, these developments have transformed data science into something more than a mere technological tool. It has become a method for using data not only to predict how you engage with digital media, but to preempt your actions and thoughts.
This is not to say that all digital technology is harmful. Rather, I want to point out one of its greatest risks: we are all susceptible to having our thoughts shaped by algorithms, sometimes in ways that can have real-world effects, such as when they affect democratic elections.
Bayesian statistics
That’s where Thomas Bayes comes in. Bayes was an English statistician; Bayesian statistics, the dominant paradigm in machine learning, is named after him.
Before Bayes, computational processes relied on frequentist statistics. Most people have encountered this method in one way or another, as in the case of how probable it is that a coin will land heads-up and tails-down. This approach starts from the assumption that the coin is fair and hasn’t been tampered with. This is called a null hypothesis.
Bayesian statistics does not require a null hypothesis; it changes the kinds of questions asked about probability entirely. Instead of assuming a coin is fair and measuring the probability of heads or tails, it asks us instead to consider whether the system for measuring probability is fair. Instead of assuming the truth of a null hypothesis, Bayesian inference starts with a measure of subjective belief which it updates as more evidence – or data – is gathered in real time.
How does this play out via algorithms? Let’s say you heard a rumour that the world is flat and you do a Google search for articles that affirm this view. Based on this search, the measure of subjective belief the algorithms have to work with is “the world is flat”. Gradually, the algorithms will curate your feed to show you articles that confirm this belief unless you have purposefully searched for opposing views too.
That’s because Bayesian approaches use prior distributions, knowledge or beliefs as a starting point of probability. Unless you change your prior distributions, the algorithm will continue providing evidence to confirm your initial measure of subjective belief.
But how can you know to change your priors if your priors are being confirmed by your search results all the time? This is the dilemma of algopopulism: Bayesian probability allows algorithms to create sophisticated filter bubbles that are difficult to discount because all your search results are based on your previous searches.
So, there is no longer a uniform version of reality presented to a specific population, like there was when TV news was broadcast to everyone in a nation at the same time. Instead, we each have a version of reality. Some of this overlaps with what others see and hear and some doesn’t.
Engaging differently online
Understanding this can change how you search online and engage with knowledge.
To avoid filter bubbles, always search for opposing views. If you haven’t done this from the start, do a search on a private browser and compare the results you get. More importantly, check your personal investment. What do you get out of taking a specific stance on a subject? For example, does it make you feel part of something meaningful because you lack real-life social bonds? Finally, endeavour to choose reliable sources. Be aware of a source’s bias from the start and avoid anonymously published content.
In these ways we can all be custodians of our individual and collective behaviour.
New Brunswick voters have elected a Liberal majority government, tossing out the incumbent Progressive Conservatives after six years in power and handing the reins to the first woman ever to lead the province. Liberal Leader Susan Holt spent much of the campaign rolling out proposed fixes for a health-care system racked by a doctor shortage, overcrowded emergency rooms and long wait-times. She promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028. (Oct. 22, 2024)
Susan Holt has made history in New Brunswick by becoming the first woman to serve as the leader of the province’s Liberal Party, a significant milestone in the province’s political landscape. Holt’s leadership victory signals a new era of representation, gender equality, and change in the region, which has long been dominated by male politicians.
Holt’s journey to the top has been one of perseverance and dedication. Before entering politics, she built a distinguished career in the private sector, where she held numerous leadership positions. Her experience in business development and public policy has equipped her with the skills needed to navigate the complex world of politics.
In a province where women have historically been underrepresented in politics, Holt’s election represents a watershed moment. Women’s involvement in leadership roles has been steadily increasing nationwide, but New Brunswick, like many parts of Canada, has seen slower progress in achieving gender parity. Holt’s rise to the top of the Liberal Party not only shatters a glass ceiling but also serves as an inspiration for future generations of women aiming for political leadership.
As the leader of the New Brunswick Liberal Party, Holt has laid out a vision of inclusivity and progress. Her policies focus on economic development, healthcare reform, environmental sustainability, and addressing social issues that have plagued the province. She has also emphasized the importance of transparent governance and creating opportunities for underrepresented communities, making her platform both modern and forward-thinking.
Holt’s leadership arrives at a time when many voters are calling for change, especially in the face of challenges like economic uncertainty and the need for healthcare improvements. She aims to bring fresh ideas to tackle these issues while ensuring that all citizens, regardless of their background, have a voice in government decisions.
Susan Holt joins the ranks of other trailblazing women across Canada who have led provincial parties and governments. Women like former Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne have paved the way, and now Holt is contributing to this growing legacy of female political leadership in Canada.
Her achievement highlights not only the growing number of women entering politics but also the demand for leaders who can bring diverse perspectives to the table. In a field often dominated by entrenched traditions, Holt’s election is a step toward a more inclusive and representative political landscape in New Brunswick.
Holt’s leadership signals a broader shift in Canadian politics, where more women and diverse voices are gaining prominence. For young women across the country, her rise serves as a powerful reminder that leadership roles are within reach, even in traditionally male-dominated spheres.
With her election, Susan Holt has proven that perseverance, skill, and a vision for change can break even the toughest barriers. Her leadership will not only reshape New Brunswick’s political future but also inspire others across Canada to pursue leadership positions and continue to challenge the status quo.
NDP Leader Carla Beck has two planned campaign events today, starting the day with an availability in Moose Jaw and then later this evening attending an event in the capital with the Regina Medical Staff Association.
Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe, meanwhile, will speak in Prince Albert at the start of Voting Week in the province.
Saskatchewan residents can vote for five days starting today in the lead-up to next week’s provincial election, although polls won’t be open Sunday.
The NDP and the Saskatchewan Party are urging voters to cast their ballots early.
Voters can find their polling stations on their information cards or by visiting the Elections Saskatchewan website.
Chief electoral officer Michael Boda says there are about 810,000 registered voters in Saskatchewan.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2024.
