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All eyes on the Bank of Canada this week for any hints on interest rate cut plans – The Globe and Mail

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The Bank of Canada headquarters in Ottawa on July 12, 2022.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

As the Bank of Canada gears up to announce its next interest rate decision Wednesday, economists will be on the lookout for any clues on when it plans to start cutting interest rates.

Overall, Wednesday shouldn’t bring any big surprises. The central bank is widely expected to continue holding its key interest rate steady at five per cent, the same as it has at its last three interest rate announcements.

But as the economy continues to slow and forecasters anticipate a steady decline in inflation, economists are eagerly watching for signs from the Bank of Canada that it’s ready to pivot.

“What I’m looking for is what I would call the next step,” said Dominique Lapointe, a global macro strategist at Manulife. “By the next step, I mean acknowledging that the rate hikes are done.”

So far, the Bank of Canada has not ruled out the possibility of raising interest rates again if inflation doesn’t co-operate. But forecasters don’t believe another rate hike is actually on the table.

Nathan Janzen, RBC assistant chief economist, says that although the central bank might still keep the door open to more rate hikes on Wednesday, it’s “unlikely that they’ll need to exercise that option.”

The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates as early as this spring in order to avoid a sharper economic downturn than is necessary to fight inflation.

Over the last year, the Canadian economy has stagnated as borrowing costs have weighed on businesses and consumers. This weaker growth has translated into a less frothy labour market with fewer job vacancies and a higher unemployment rate of 5.8 per cent.

The Bank of Canada’s recently released business outlook survey found labour shortages are no longer a top concern, and instead firms are worried about slowing sales.

Its consumer expectations survey found Canadians are also pulling back on their spending as higher interest rates force mortgage holders to cut on expenses in order to afford larger monthly payments.

This pullback in consumer spending is expected to chill the economy even further this year.

Manulife’s economic outlook for 2024 suggests the economy will shrink in the first half of the year before growing again.

“It’s going to be a weak year, regardless (of whether) we get a technical recession,” Lapointe said. “The question will be, how long will this slowdown be? And can we get sustainable recovery in the second half of this year?”

He added that the expected bounceback in the second half of the year hinges on interest rate cuts.

But the Bank of Canada isn’t expected to start discussing rate cuts just yet, particularly since inflation rose last month.

Canada’s annual inflation rate picked up to 3.4 per cent in December, while underlying price pressures failed to ease. Lapointe says the fact that core measures of inflation – which strip out volatility in prices – picked up last month poses a communication challenge for the central bank.

“I think it’s a problem for the Bank of Canada – it’s a problem for the consumers too – in the fact that it does suggest that price pressure(s) on the core front are more persistent than we thought. And this is probably complicating their messaging next week,” he said.

The Bank of Canada has previously acknowledged that the journey back to two per cent inflation will come with some bumps along the way. Governor Tiff Macklem has said that the central bank won’t be responding to each hiccup, but instead will respond to consistent trends.

“We still think the most likely path for inflation is lower. The economy looks softer, the monthly inflation data will bounce around, but generally has been trending lower,” said Janzen.

In addition to its interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada will be publishing its quarterly monetary policy report on Wednesday. The report will include new forecasts for the economy and inflation.

In October, the Bank of Canada was projecting inflation would fall back to two per cent in 2025.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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