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All Politics Is National, Especially When All Campaigns Are Online – Governing

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Franccesca Cesti-Browne is a Democrat running for a seat in the Florida House. During an online fundraiser last week, she talked up her ties to her Miami district, noting her service as a Girl Scout troop leader and highlighting Florida issues such as the health of the Everglades and the state’s troubled unemployment system. This was only remarkable because she was talking to people who live in New England.

Cesti-Browne has been endorsed by Sister District Project, a group that links Democratic legislative candidates with donors and volunteers who live in safely blue districts but want to assist campaigns elsewhere that are competitive. About 20 people from the group’s Massachusetts-Rhode Island chapter connected with Cesti-Browne over Zoom, contributing about $3,000 to her campaign.

Out-of-state donors aren’t new, but in a year when almost all campaign activity has by necessity moved online, having a physical connection to a state or district is no longer a requirement for any type of participation. Now, rather than knocking on doors or showing up at county fairs, legislative candidates are sharing their messages with people they’ll never represent.

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“With the increase in online campaigning, campaigns have a much larger swath of donors they can tap into across the country,” says Tori Taylor, co-executive director of Swing Left, a group that directs Democratic donors and volunteers to legislative, presidential and Senate races in a dozen “super states.” “In-person contact is not going to be as readily acceptable as it was in years past.”

Both Swing Left and Sister District Project, along with a number of other Democratic groups, rose out of the ashes of the party’s defeat in the 2016 presidential election, tapping into the increase in activism and engagement among Democrats during Donald Trump’s presidency. They see a clear opening this year to get more people engaged in state races, when most of the legislators involved in redistricting will be elected.

“While some of these races are very local, they can still have national implications that make them very important to you,” Taylor says. “No matter where you live, gerrymandering has an effect on you.”

For years, Republicans have been better organized at the state level, with Democrats mostly fixated on national elections. The new groups are seeking to remedy that, but they haven’t made up their party’s fundraising gap. The primary outlet for support of GOP legislative candidates, the Republican State Leadership Committee, raised $10.5 million in the second quarter — nearly double the haul at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee ($5.8 million). The Republican Governors Association also outraised its Democratic counterpart, although not by as much.

While Democratic donors all over the country are donating millions to U.S. Senate races in states such as Arizona, Kentucky and Maine, it seems they’ve yet to get as excited about this year’s contests for governor.

“Much to our frustration, Democratic donors, large and small, still place vastly more importance on federal races,” says David Turner, communications director for the Democratic Governors Association. “Are we getting liberals in California or New York to engage in the middle of the country? Not yet.”

The Nationalization of State Politics

Turner notes that people are still willing to vote differently for governor than they do in national contests. There are eight Democratic governors in states Trump carried in 2016, including victories for the party last fall in the otherwise bright red states of Kentucky and Louisiana. Four Republicans are governors of states that supported Hillary Clinton four years ago.

The same is not true about legislatures. Currently, the GOP controls the legislature in every Trump state (with an asterisk on the coalition-run Alaska House, where there’s a Republican majority on paper). Democrats control the legislature in every Clinton state, with the sole exception of the Minnesota Senate.

The vast majority of legislators represent districts that their party carried in the last presidential vote. “While there is still significant ticket-splitting between federal and state legislative races, it has continued to dwindle since the turn of the century,” says Chaz Nuttycombe, director of CNalysis, an elections forecast site.

Legislators always like to say that they have their own identities, that their constituents know who they are and can stop and talk to them at the grocery store. The reality, however, is that most people can’t name their own legislators. “Survey after survey shows that even people who spend hours a day on national politics know next to nothing about local politics,” says Dan Hopkins, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.

Federal politics have become the sun around which everything else revolves. Voters are likely to vote either R or D, depending on their inclinations, with less room for centrist Democrats in red states or centrist Republicans in blue states to carve out their own niches.

“State legislative races are almost entirely an artifact of the president’s popularity or unpopularity,” says Sam Rosenfeld, a political scientist at Colgate University. “Already the campaign effects you see downballot seem much more muted than they were in a less nationalized and less polarized era.”

Right now, people don’t want to stop and talk at the grocery store. They might not even recognize their state representative in a mask. And there’s little to no chance for legislators to make themselves known by speaking at high school graduations or service clubs.

“Candidates have lost their superpower, which is knocking on doors,” says Daniel Squadron, executive director of Future Now, another group seeking to elect Democratic legislators.

There’s No Place Not Home

Squadron notes that as in-person organizing faces obstacles, virtual organizing has become easier. “It does open up that geography and the networks to everyone who has Zoom or a Web browser,” Squadron says. “Volunteer engagement is vastly increased in both potential and importance.”

It’s also easier to raise money. Many campaigns have outsourced their donation collection to third-party sites — ActBlue for Democrats, WinRed for Republicans. It’s easy these days for candidates to get big names to show up for a 20-minute appearance on Zoom, since there’s no travel involved. Some political celebrities are making multiple appearances per night.

Minnesota Sen. Matt Little attending a high school graduation party in 2016. With the pandemic impacting how he campaigns, the legislator shared his perspective on how things have changed: “We are safely talking to as many people as we possibly can with social distance and masks when appropriate. On fundraising, I don’t think COVID has affected that at all. Honestly, I think people are relieved they don’t have to physically attend any more fundraisers.” (Photo: David Kidd)


But donors drawn in by big names aren’t likely to care much about the dynamics of a local district. They are committed to their party and want it to win, even in places where they may never set foot. “More and more of the donations to candidates are coming from people those candidates don’t represent,” says Hopkins, the Penn political scientist. “Now candidates have to figure out how to get somebody’s attention in a new world that is online, so there’s less incentive to focus on a particular place.”

The Wisconsin Democratic Party raised a record $10 million during the second quarter, with donations coming into the presidential battleground state from around the country. Some donations were as little as $1.50, but about $2.5 million came from the governor of another state — J.B. Pritzker of Illinois.

Out-of-state donations will further nationalize legislative elections. Money will be particularly important in legislative races this year, Squadron says, given the absence of traditional campaigning. “Digital ads and mailers and television are more expensive than shoe leather,” he says.

It Pays to Have Friends

As a longtime activist, Aleta Borrud has been knocking on doors for 20 years. Now, as a Democratic candidate for the Minnesota Senate, she can’t.

She’s backed by Sister District Project, which is helping her raise money and get her message out. She’s received donations from California, New York, Massachusetts and other states. “I was surprised even before Sister District came in that I got a very large donation from somebody I’d never heard of in Ohio,” she says.

But Borrud understands something obvious: She has to win votes from people who actually live in her district. She knows yard signs don’t vote, but she believes they lend her campaign visibility, along with supporters wearing matching t-shirts along roadsides.

To a large extent, she is having to rely on other people to make her case for her. It’s what campaign consultants call relational organizing — getting people to vouch for candidates to their friends and acquaintances. With luck, those people in turn will hit up their friends. “You bring in supporters and ask them to reach out to the people they already know and have conversations through email or posts on Facebook or text,” Borrud says.

There’s still no substitute for being able to draw on local connections, but successful campaigns have to find support beyond the candidate’s immediate friend circle. We’ve all learned that a person calling up to sell a product might well be sitting in Manila or Bangalore. Now it’s possible that people calling voters in Miami could live in Massachusetts.

The people attending the Sister District fundraiser for Cesti-Browne acknowledged that they have no special connection to Florida. Some flubbed the Florida trivia quiz that kicked off the event. One participant said “Florida feels like a foreign country to those of us born in Boston.”

But several committed to participate in phone banks for her anyway.

“Anything you can do to help us connect with voters, especially in these times when we can’t knock on doors, that is the best thing you can do,” Cesti-Browne said.

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Trump's claims on crime rates clash with police data – NBC News

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Surging crime levels, out-of-control Democratic cities and “migrant crime.”

Former President Donald Trump regularly cites all three at his campaign rallies, in news releases and on Truth Social, often saying President Joe Biden and Democrats are to blame.

But the crime picture Trump paints contrasts sharply with years of police and government data at both the local and national levels.

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FBI statistics released this year suggested a steep drop in crime across the country last year. It’s a similar story across major cities, with violent crime down year over year in Chicago, New York and Washington, D.C.

NBC News analyzed crime data to evaluate Trump’s assertions about the topic.

U.S. and big city crime rates

Trump’s campaign often refers to crime levels, regularly pointing the finger at Biden.

“On Joe Biden’s watch, violent crime has skyrocketed in virtually every American city,” the campaign said in a news release published this month on its site.

Trump himself has made similar remarks.

“Four years ago, I told you that if crooked Joe Biden got to the White House, our borders would be abolished, our middle class would be decimated and our communities would be plagued by bloodshed, chaos and violent crime,” Trump said in a speech last month at the Conservative Political Action Conference. “We were right about everything.”

Government figures don’t support that characterization.

Reported violent crime dropped 6% across the board when comparing the last three months of 2022 to the same period in 2023, the FBI reported.

The reported drops were especially pronounced in the big cities that Trump often assails, many of which have Democratic mayors. Violent crime dropped by 11% in cities with populations of 1 million or more, according to FBI data, while murders dropped by 20%, rape was down 16%, and aggravated assault fell by 11%.

Reached for comment, the Trump campaign pointed to other reports indicating that certain types of crimes increased in specific cities.

At the national level, the reported rate of violent crime in 2022, the most recent full year with comprehensive FBI data, was 380.7 offenses per 100,000 people. That’s lower than the overall reported violent crime rate from 2020 — the last full year Trump was in office — when the figure was at 398.5.

The lowest reported violent crime rate of Trump’s presidency was in 2019, when the metric was at 380.8 — in line with the 2022 rate.

The FBI said it will release more comprehensive 2023 crime data in October, just before the election.

The Trump campaign, reached for comment, cited certain categories of violent crime, such as motor vehicle theft, as having increased during the Biden administration, according to FBI figures.

“Joe Biden is trying to convince Americans not to believe their own eyes,” campaign press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, adding that “Democrats have turned great American cities into cesspools of bloodshed and crime.”

New York City crime

Trump, who was born and raised in New York but now lives in Florida, often rails against what he portrays as an increasing crime rate in his former hometown.

Those references to soaring violence have only increased as he faces criminal charges in New York accusing him of falsifying business records related to hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. Trump, who has pleaded not guilty in that case, must also post a $175 million bond to prevent state Attorney General Letitia James from collecting the judgment from a New York civil fraud case.

“I did nothing wrong, and New York should never be put in a position like this again,” Trump posted on Truth Social about the civil judgment in all capital letters. “Businesses are fleeing, violent crime is flourishing, and it is very important that this be resolved in its totality as soon as possible.”

In a separate post, he claimed that “murders & violent crime hit unimaginable records” in the city.

However, major crimes in New York City are down this year by 2.3%, according to police department data comparing year-to-date figures to the same period in 2023.

Those figures for last year were also far below the highs from recent decades. In 1990, more than 527,000 major crimes were reported, compared to more than 126,000 last year, according to New York police data — a drop of more than 75%.

In 2001, more than 162,000 major crimes were reported in New York. The figure dropped by more than 20% over the next two decades.

At the same time, New York City data indicates that the number of major crimes increased in the past few years, though reported violent crimes like murder and rape were down last year from previous years.

‘Migrant crime’

Trump’s dehumanizing language about migrants has become a mainstay of his political speeches since he first sought office in 2015.

In a news release this month, his campaign said the “border Crisis has created a tragic surge in violent crime against innocent American citizens at the hands of some of the world’s most violent criminals.”

Trump has also focused his energy on high-profile cases such as the death of Laken Riley, who was killed in Georgia while jogging. The suspect is a Venezuelan citizen who entered the U.S. illegally in 2022.

“Every day, innocent citizens are being killed, stabbed, shot, raped and murdered because of Biden migrant crime,” Trump said in a video posted to his campaign’s X account last week.

However, there is no evidence of a migrant-driven crime wave in the U.S., according to local police department data.

Crime reports have decreased in several major cities targeted by Texas’ Operation Lone Star, a program backed by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott that flies or buses migrants from the state to Democratic-run cities across the U.S.

Several of those cities — New York, Chicago, Washington and Philadelphia — have had decreases in year-to-date reported crime totals compared to the same period last year.


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Federal government promising a 'renters' bill of rights' in upcoming budget – CBC.ca

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that his government will introduce new measures — including a new “bill of rights” — that he says will help protect those who rent their homes as part of the upcoming budget.

Trudeau said the new measures are specifically geared toward younger people, who are renting more than previous generations.

“It’s about changing the rules of the game in a way that meets young people where they are,” he said on Wednesday.

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Ottawa will work with provinces and territories to develop a “renters’ bill of rights” that would introduce a national standard lease agreement and implement requirements for landlords to disclose an apartment’s pricing history to allow tenants to negotiate their rent.

The new measures will also include a $15-million fund for provincial legal aid organizations that help tenants fight against “renovictions” and landlord abuse.

The Liberals are also proposing to change federal rules so that making rental payments on time will count toward someone’s credit scores, something Trudeau said is meant to help renters looking to one day buy a house.

“If you look at someone who pays a $2,000 [per month] mortgage, they’re getting recognition and credit for that from their bank as part of their credit score,” the prime minister said.

“But if you’re paying $2,000 a month on rent, you get no kudos.”

Typically the government doesn’t discuss what is in an annual budget until it is introduced in the House of Commons. But the announcement was made weeks prior to the release of the Liberals’ next budget, which is slated to drop on April 16.

Releasing tidbits from the budget ahead of time is part of a new communications strategy for the Liberals, sources told CBC News. Trudeau and his ministers are expected to make a number of similar announcements in the run-up to the budget, the sources said.

WATCH | Trudeau says new measures aim to help tenants: 

Liberals promise ‘renters’ bill of rights’ to fight housing crisis

5 hours ago

Duration 2:07

The Liberals are looking to create a ‘renters’ bill of rights’ to help deal with Canada’s housing crisis. Justin Trudeau says the plan is geared toward younger people suffering from a rising cost of living. The Conservatives call the measures meaningless.

Before revealing the planned rental measures on Wednesday, Trudeau took a moment to plug the April 16 fiscal plan, saying that the budget will be about “fairness.”

“For Canada to succeed, we need everyone to succeed,” he said.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland joined Trudeau for his announcement and hinted about further announcements ahead of budget day.

“Over the coming days and in the April budget, we are going to launch a no-holds-barred plan to wrestle down the cost of owning and renting a home,” she said.

Wednesday’s announcements came on the same day that the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation released a report that found a surge in new apartment construction drove housing start increases in several major Canadian cities last year.

But the report also cautions that demand continues to outweigh supply.

The opposition Conservatives, who have enjoyed a healthy lead in recent polls, have made housing — and other cost-of-living issues — a key point of attack against the governing Liberals.

Following his announcement, Trudeau was asked whether he thinks he bears any responsibility for people feeling left behind in the current economy and whether the new measures would be enough to convince younger people to support him in the next election.

In response, Trudeau suggested that a recent rise in the cost of living is not unique to Canada.

“Young people who are key to our present, and obviously key to our future, are seeing a system that is stacked against them. That’s true in Canada but also true elsewhere around the world,” he said. “What we’re focused on now is making sure that young people can see their success in the economy.”

Opposition parties criticize Liberal announcement

Scott Aitchison, the Conservative housing critic, said Wednesday’s announcement was Liberal posturing that won’t get results.

“Today’s photo op is just another set of meaningless measures that won’t result in building the homes Canadians need,” he said in a statement.

NDP housing critic Jenny Kwan criticized the announcement for not going far enough.

“The Liberals are so out of touch with what Canadian renters are experiencing that they keep offering half-measures instead of a real action,” Kwan said in a statement.

The NDP is calling on the government to invest more in affordable housing while temporarily preventing for-profit firms from buying designated affordable-housing spaces.

WATCH | Liberal government promises better protections for renters in upcoming budget: 

Liberal government promises better protections for renters in upcoming budget

9 hours ago

Duration 11:39

The Liberal government unveiled three new proposals Wednesday to better protect renters in Canada. Power & Politics speaks to Marci Ien, minister of women, gender equality and youth, about the proposed protections.

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‘Hillary was right’: Lifelong GOP voter on why he is leaving party – CNN

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‘Hillary was right’: Lifelong GOP voter on why he is leaving party

Texas Trey, a lifelong Republican voter, speaks with CNN’s Laura Coates about why he plans to leave the party before the 2024 election.


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CNN

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